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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Runn Differential League Snapshot... 4-27-19...

    «First Previous 121314 ... 192021 Next Last»
    smacksmiter
    ibacku
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    WISEGUY36
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    «First Previous 121314 ... 192021 Next Last»
     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 11:08 AM ET #276

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Very nice smack,  one thing I am trying to understand, I thought you identified the 3 borderlines plays and then  listed the POD’s, which went 7&4.  But then you said if you weeded out the border lines you would have been 6-2.   What am I missing, or is it back dated in the thread.

    thanks for the clarification.  


    I totally messed up in that write up above...thanks for catching it...late at night, way too tired to be writing anything...lol...

    What I SHOULD have done...main system plays (RDS) and deleted the borderline plays to get the PODs...

    Yesterday, the main system went 8-6 and the borderline plays went 1-2...subtracting the 1-2 from the 8-6 and you get a 7-4 record which is the record of the PODs...

    Sorry about the mistake ...


    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebenelli:

    Very nice smack,  one thing I am trying to understand, I thought you identified the 3 borderlines plays and then  listed the POD’s, which went 7&4.  But then you said if you weeded out the border lines you would have been 6-2.   What am I missing, or is it back dated in the thread.

    thanks for the clarification.  


    I totally messed up in that write up above...thanks for catching it...late at night, way too tired to be writing anything...lol...

    What I SHOULD have done...main system plays (RDS) and deleted the borderline plays to get the PODs...

    Yesterday, the main system went 8-6 and the borderline plays went 1-2...subtracting the 1-2 from the 8-6 and you get a 7-4 record which is the record of the PODs...

    Sorry about the mistake ...


     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 11:17 AM ET #277

    Day 29 of the RDS is here!...

    Washington (-30) vs Miami (-92)
    NYY (+65) vs S.D. (-10)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+67) vs Toronto (-44)
    Cincy Game 1 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)
    Houston (+89) vs Chicago Cubs (+54)
    Boston (+33) vs Cleveland (-6)
    Oakland (+33) vs LA Angels (-15)
    Minnesota (+111) vs Milwaukee (+14)
    Cincy Game 2 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)
    LA Dodgers (+79) vs NYM (-12)
    Texas (+13) at Seattle (-49)
    Arizona (+49) at Colorado (-6)

    Borderline plays are ...

    NYY
    Houston
    Texas

    Which leaves the 9 PODs...

    Washington
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Cincy...Game 1 and 2
    Boston
    Oakland
    Minnesota
    LA Dodgers
    Arizona

    Spotted a few leans on OVERS...adding them here as possible bonus selections...

    Cubs/Houston OVER
    Pittsburght/Cincy Game 2 OVER
    Arizona/Colorado OVER
    Texas/Seattle OVER

    Good luck for Memorial Day gents!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Day 29 of the RDS is here!...

    Washington (-30) vs Miami (-92)
    NYY (+65) vs S.D. (-10)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+67) vs Toronto (-44)
    Cincy Game 1 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)
    Houston (+89) vs Chicago Cubs (+54)
    Boston (+33) vs Cleveland (-6)
    Oakland (+33) vs LA Angels (-15)
    Minnesota (+111) vs Milwaukee (+14)
    Cincy Game 2 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)
    LA Dodgers (+79) vs NYM (-12)
    Texas (+13) at Seattle (-49)
    Arizona (+49) at Colorado (-6)

    Borderline plays are ...

    NYY
    Houston
    Texas

    Which leaves the 9 PODs...

    Washington
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Cincy...Game 1 and 2
    Boston
    Oakland
    Minnesota
    LA Dodgers
    Arizona

    Spotted a few leans on OVERS...adding them here as possible bonus selections...

    Cubs/Houston OVER
    Pittsburght/Cincy Game 2 OVER
    Arizona/Colorado OVER
    Texas/Seattle OVER

    Good luck for Memorial Day gents!...

     
    ibacku
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 11:54 AM ET #278

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Day 29 of the RDS is here!...Washington (-30) vs Miami (-92)NYY (+65) vs S.D. (-10)T.B. Devil Rays (+67) vs Toronto (-44)Cincy Game 1 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)Houston (+89) vs Chicago Cubs (+54)Boston (+33) vs Cleveland (-6)Oakland (+33) vs LA Angels (-15)Minnesota (+111) vs Milwaukee (+14)Cincy Game 2 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)LA Dodgers (+79) vs NYM (-12)Texas (+13) at Seattle (-49)Arizona (+49) at Colorado (-6)Borderline plays are ...NYYHoustonTexasWhich leaves the 9 PODs...WashingtonT.B. Devil RaysCincy...Game 1 and 2BostonOaklandMinnesotaLA DodgersArizonaSpotted a few leans on OVERS...adding them here as possible bonus selections...Cubs/Houston OVERPittsburght/Cincy Game 2 OVERArizona/Colorado OVERTexas/Seattle OVERGood luck for Memorial Day gents!...

    clover BOL

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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Day 29 of the RDS is here!...Washington (-30) vs Miami (-92)NYY (+65) vs S.D. (-10)T.B. Devil Rays (+67) vs Toronto (-44)Cincy Game 1 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)Houston (+89) vs Chicago Cubs (+54)Boston (+33) vs Cleveland (-6)Oakland (+33) vs LA Angels (-15)Minnesota (+111) vs Milwaukee (+14)Cincy Game 2 (+32) vs Pittsburgh (-59)LA Dodgers (+79) vs NYM (-12)Texas (+13) at Seattle (-49)Arizona (+49) at Colorado (-6)Borderline plays are ...NYYHoustonTexasWhich leaves the 9 PODs...WashingtonT.B. Devil RaysCincy...Game 1 and 2BostonOaklandMinnesotaLA DodgersArizonaSpotted a few leans on OVERS...adding them here as possible bonus selections...Cubs/Houston OVERPittsburght/Cincy Game 2 OVERArizona/Colorado OVERTexas/Seattle OVERGood luck for Memorial Day gents!...

    clover BOL

     
    umgmu
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 12:12 PM ET #279

    Smack, 
    Appreciate your hard work
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    Smack, 
    Appreciate your hard work
     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 12:14 PM ET #280

    Good Luck Today , smack     
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Good Luck Today , smack     
     
    tinfoils
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 1:10 PM ET #281

    Good luck smack!
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    Good luck smack!
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 2:22 PM ET #282

    Thank you gentlemen!...

    Hope you all crush today!...

    Was looking at this Texas/Seattle game...Seattle now (-126) and the O/U 9.5...

    I know Texas is on the borderline list...BUT...Tommy Malone should not be favored here...I just don't see it...throw on top of that the fact that Seattle is the worst defensive team in baseball by a VERY big margin...

    Seattle...

    7-23 in their last 30...
    5-15 in their last 20...
    1-9 in their last 10...

    Vs teams with a .500 or better record...12-30...

    They have gone from a +30 to a -49 in run differential in just a 6 week period...

    Strong lean to Texas here...may or may not play it but it sure is calling out to me...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Thank you gentlemen!...

    Hope you all crush today!...

    Was looking at this Texas/Seattle game...Seattle now (-126) and the O/U 9.5...

    I know Texas is on the borderline list...BUT...Tommy Malone should not be favored here...I just don't see it...throw on top of that the fact that Seattle is the worst defensive team in baseball by a VERY big margin...

    Seattle...

    7-23 in their last 30...
    5-15 in their last 20...
    1-9 in their last 10...

    Vs teams with a .500 or better record...12-30...

    They have gone from a +30 to a -49 in run differential in just a 6 week period...

    Strong lean to Texas here...may or may not play it but it sure is calling out to me...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 8:59 PM ET #283

    Ok..I'm going ahead with the Texas (+109) money line play for 5 units...

    I'll take my chances here that Lance Lynn grinds out a good 5/6 innings and the bullpen throws like they have been recently...decent form...

    And...Seattle does what Seattle does...finds ways to lose games...

    Please be aware that while this is a RDS play...it is also a borderline play...borderline plays are 2-0 today and going for the Texas win will make them 3-0......

    Best of luck...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Ok..I'm going ahead with the Texas (+109) money line play for 5 units...

    I'll take my chances here that Lance Lynn grinds out a good 5/6 innings and the bullpen throws like they have been recently...decent form...

    And...Seattle does what Seattle does...finds ways to lose games...

    Please be aware that while this is a RDS play...it is also a borderline play...borderline plays are 2-0 today and going for the Texas win will make them 3-0......

    Best of luck...

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 27, 2019 - 9:12 PM ET #284

    GL  
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    GL  
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 1:16 AM ET #285

    Day 28 is complete...

    The RDS went 7-5...the PODs went 5-4...dismal day through and through...couple of close ones but that's the way it goes...

    Overall now the RDS is 166-98 and PODs are 59-24 after 12 days of tracking...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Day 28 is complete...

    The RDS went 7-5...the PODs went 5-4...dismal day through and through...couple of close ones but that's the way it goes...

    Overall now the RDS is 166-98 and PODs are 59-24 after 12 days of tracking...

     
    OGiant23
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 8:53 AM ET #286

    I think there needs to be some kind of check on the pitcher or how many times in a row they’ve won. Otherwise you can almost bet you’ll be fading the tigers marlins and orioles every day, while playing twins dodgers and maybe Astros/Yankees 

    All the super teams started streaking when we started and there was an inordinate amount of sweeps/near sweeps 
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    I think there needs to be some kind of check on the pitcher or how many times in a row they’ve won. Otherwise you can almost bet you’ll be fading the tigers marlins and orioles every day, while playing twins dodgers and maybe Astros/Yankees 

    All the super teams started streaking when we started and there was an inordinate amount of sweeps/near sweeps 
     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 9:09 AM ET #287

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Day 28 is complete...

    The RDS went 7-5...the PODs went 5-4...dismal day through and through...couple of close ones but that's the way it goes...

    Overall now the RDS is 166-98 and PODs are 59-24 after 12 days of tracking...





    Must be a data point you can use to refine even further to weed
    out some noise and make your accuracy level more consistent
    over time , probably with fewer selections , but at a higher win rate.

    In CFB , I prescreen all matchups with a simple criteria that is
    targeted enough to weed out close to 80 % of all matchups as
    " No Plays " . Then I can also see the top 10  and cap them in
    much greater detail. It saves me a lot of time capping a weekly
    45 or so games. But primarilly tells which matchups are not likely
    to provide me with an accurate result. I use a similar method for
    MLB as well.

    GL Today , smack    
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Day 28 is complete...

    The RDS went 7-5...the PODs went 5-4...dismal day through and through...couple of close ones but that's the way it goes...

    Overall now the RDS is 166-98 and PODs are 59-24 after 12 days of tracking...





    Must be a data point you can use to refine even further to weed
    out some noise and make your accuracy level more consistent
    over time , probably with fewer selections , but at a higher win rate.

    In CFB , I prescreen all matchups with a simple criteria that is
    targeted enough to weed out close to 80 % of all matchups as
    " No Plays " . Then I can also see the top 10  and cap them in
    much greater detail. It saves me a lot of time capping a weekly
    45 or so games. But primarilly tells which matchups are not likely
    to provide me with an accurate result. I use a similar method for
    MLB as well.

    GL Today , smack    
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 10:54 AM ET #288

    Thanks for the input gentlemen...I am going to make a slight modification to the system today in an effort to weed out a few more losers...

    I am increasing the differential criteria from 20 to 30...

    The plays for day 29 are in...

    NYY (+68) vs S.D. (-13)
    Boston (+40) vs Detroit (-99)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+72) vs Toronto (-49)
    Atlanta (+17) vs Washington (-31)
    Houston (+90) vs Chicago Cubs (+53)
    Arizona (+48) at Colorado (-5)
    Oakland (+36) vs LA Angels (-18)
    LA Dodgers (+83) vs NYM (-16)

    The borderline plays are...

    Cincinnati
    Texas
    Minnesota

    Thus, the PODs are...

    NYY
    Boston
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Atlanta
    Houston
    Arizona
    Oakland
    LA Dodgers

    Best of luck today!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Thanks for the input gentlemen...I am going to make a slight modification to the system today in an effort to weed out a few more losers...

    I am increasing the differential criteria from 20 to 30...

    The plays for day 29 are in...

    NYY (+68) vs S.D. (-13)
    Boston (+40) vs Detroit (-99)
    T.B. Devil Rays (+72) vs Toronto (-49)
    Atlanta (+17) vs Washington (-31)
    Houston (+90) vs Chicago Cubs (+53)
    Arizona (+48) at Colorado (-5)
    Oakland (+36) vs LA Angels (-18)
    LA Dodgers (+83) vs NYM (-16)

    The borderline plays are...

    Cincinnati
    Texas
    Minnesota

    Thus, the PODs are...

    NYY
    Boston
    T.B. Devil Rays
    Atlanta
    Houston
    Arizona
    Oakland
    LA Dodgers

    Best of luck today!...

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 11:02 AM ET #289

      
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Viral72
    Viral72
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 11:20 AM ET #290

    Boston is playing Cleveland,  not Det. If im reading that correct

    BoL

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    Boston is playing Cleveland,  not Det. If im reading that correct

    BoL

     
    tinfoils
    tinfoils
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 3:20 PM ET #291

    Does a high ML ever cancel out a play? Good luck smack!

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    Does a high ML ever cancel out a play? Good luck smack!

     
    OGiant23
    OGiant23
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 5:23 PM ET #292

    Braves should be a nationals or no play game. while the braves do well vs. stars, a short -120 line on fried yells trap. also teams who win SNB consistently perform poorly in their next game. 

    I'm a braves fan
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    Braves should be a nationals or no play game. while the braves do well vs. stars, a short -120 line on fried yells trap. also teams who win SNB consistently perform poorly in their next game. 

    I'm a braves fan
     
    imdivot1
    imdivot1
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 5:26 PM ET #293

    you are correct!!
    r.a.c.
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    you are correct!!
     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 5:37 PM ET #294

    Quote Originally Posted by Viral72:

    Boston is playing Cleveland,  not Det. If im reading that correct

    BoL


    You are correct, my mistake...

    Boston (+40) vs Cleveland (-13)...

    Thanks for catching that!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viral72:

    Boston is playing Cleveland,  not Det. If im reading that correct

    BoL


    You are correct, my mistake...

    Boston (+40) vs Cleveland (-13)...

    Thanks for catching that!...

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 28, 2019 - 5:39 PM ET #295

    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:

    Does a high ML ever cancel out a play? Good luck smack!


    I have not, to this point, removed or made borderline a RDS selection simply for having a high ML...

    Might be something to consider in the future...

    I didn't want to tweak too many things at the same time without giving the system time to perform with its criteria set...only have about 3-4 weeks now of using the same setup...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:

    Does a high ML ever cancel out a play? Good luck smack!


    I have not, to this point, removed or made borderline a RDS selection simply for having a high ML...

    Might be something to consider in the future...

    I didn't want to tweak too many things at the same time without giving the system time to perform with its criteria set...only have about 3-4 weeks now of using the same setup...

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: May. 29, 2019 - 11:45 AM ET #296

    Absolutely the worst day for the system and PODs...

    The system went 5-6...the PODs went 2-6...

    Borderlines went 3-0... ...

    What a train wreck...dumpster fire......


    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Absolutely the worst day for the system and PODs...

    The system went 5-6...the PODs went 2-6...

    Borderlines went 3-0... ...

    What a train wreck...dumpster fire......


     
    cazzz29
    cazzz29
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    Posted: May. 29, 2019 - 11:52 AM ET #297

    Lets be honest, if 5-6 is the dumpster fire......im ok with that, I have done ALOT worse on my own in a bad day !!! Keep

    up the good work !!

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    Lets be honest, if 5-6 is the dumpster fire......im ok with that, I have done ALOT worse on my own in a bad day !!! Keep

    up the good work !!

     
    OGiant23
    OGiant23
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    Posted: May. 29, 2019 - 12:31 PM ET #298

    maybe add in pitcher history facing certain teams 
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    maybe add in pitcher history facing certain teams 
     
    Maddies_Daddy
    Maddies_Daddy
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    Posted: May. 29, 2019 - 3:11 PM ET #299

    No thread for today smack? 

    Thanks for all your hard work!

     

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    No thread for today smack? 

    Thanks for all your hard work!

     

     
     
    ibacku
    ibacku
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    Posted: May. 29, 2019 - 3:15 PM ET #300

    Quote Originally Posted by Maddies_Daddy:

    No thread for today smack?  Thanks for all your hard work!

    same run diff since Monday same teams have to choose which one are borderline or not !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maddies_Daddy:

    No thread for today smack?  Thanks for all your hard work!

    same run diff since Monday same teams have to choose which one are borderline or not !!

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