17-26-2, -742.03, - RoR -16.9 %
JMHO – 5/14
FG – Red Sox -104 (pays 96.15)– Luzardo/Suarez
Well, here we go again with my thinking pitching matters, and conversely, how offenses react to L/R pitching. Not a great deal of difference between Luzardo and Suarez, but enough to matter, with Suarez holding the edge. Points that may matter, if offense is the only consideration, digest this. Only 38% of Phillies games have been against opponents above .500, and they have gone 4-12 in those games, 25%. In addition they are 5-11 vs left-handed starters, with a current o.e.r.a. of just 3.6 per 9 innings. The Red Sox have played 43% of their games versus >500 teams and have gone 7-11, 39%, wins versus those teams. They also sport a current o.e.r.a. of 5.8 per 9 innings. Strength of schedule and superior results justify a play at near even odds.
PAYOR. Play at your own risk.
o.e.r.a. = Offensive Earned Run Average. The opposing starters era vs the teams offense
(pays) A number of years ago some dimwit on this site could not get the concept of flat wagering through his skull, and kept accusing me of “not deducting the juice” when a favorite of mine lost. So, I point out the profit I will take if I win, a loss is still -100. That is flat wagering; like it or hate it my records are accurate.
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