Money Ball, Monday 8-20-2012 FORMAT CHANGE TODAY

7-3, +597 Sunday ends a fine week at 26-14-1, +1,557

Are you ready for this? I have had a lot of fun with the “100 Units Per Play” thing but it is often misinterpreted. It does not, and never has, represented $100 per play. The Covers MLB Forum long ago decided a “unit” can be anything you want it to be, and if you are a “lay the juice player” sometimes your unit is what you want to wager (underdog) and sometimes it is the amount you want to win (favorite). Either way there is no definite description of a “unit”. So be it, that is the choice of the forum, not me. Well anyway, I have had my fun but current conditions and my computer program (which is my real boss ) have dictated another method, supposedly advantageous to myself as well as anyone that values my plays and/or opinions (both of you).

The “Basic” play will now be 5 units. This will allow me to also play 4 units on a slightly weaker play or 6 units on a slightly stronger one, with an occasional 3 on a high value-low probability underdog, like the Astros yesterday. I don’t expect to ever see a 7 unit play but if it happens I will make a really big deal out of it and do an extensive write up about it. I do not believe in huge variances in risk, like 1 to 10 or 20 units.  There will probably never be a 2 unit as anything that low in probability is just not worthy of any risk at all.

So, the following is the conversion I am using. Anyone not doing the math or just punching the keyboard without a moments thought will only wind up embarrassed, so don’t do it without evidence.

Sunday morning’s posted record:

5 Inning YTD 84-93-19, -151 9 Inning YTD: 155-141-1, +3,533 NET. +3,382 (+7.2 % RoR)

Sunday’s results:

7-3, +597.3

Updated record after Sunday’s action:

5 Inning YTD 87-95-19, +20.62 9 Inning YTD: 159-142-1, +3,958.64 NET. +3,979.26 (+8.239 % RoR)

Two things to note: 1. because of the conversion I have added the necessary decimals, which I normally don’t do, it just makes for easier reading, but the program does track it and it is always available. 2. After being down around 1,500 units on the early season 5 inning plays I have recovered every single penny and the number is not now red, it is green. Yippee! I may eliminate the separate listing because I wouldn’t want a new viewer to think “Gee, this guy is doing a lot better in 9 than 5.” That simply is not currently true, it is just that I had a lot of ground to make up in the 5 inning category.

The 5 unit conversion is rather simple, you just divide by 20:

5 Inning YTD 87-95-19, +1.031 9 Inning YTD: 159-142-1, +197.932 NET = +198.963 (+8.239 % RoR)

The W-L record and Return On Risk are not affected at all. All plays will remain flat wagers. I do not “add the juice” to anything.

Those that care can digest that for a while and I will be back with my picks. I expect to have a relatively large card again tonight, even though it is a Monday with only 12 games. Cya later.

BOL to you!

YTD: 246-237-20, +199 Units

All plays, unless otherwise noted, are 5 units

5 & 9 Inning Plays Today

Royals +151, +159, (Smith / Hellickson)

Orioles +155, +158, (Gonzalez / Dempster)

Cubs +142, +145, (Germano / Rogers)

Yankees -.5, +110, -1.5, +145, (Garcia / Floyd)  

Twins-A’s Over 4, +100, Over 7.5, +100, (Duensing / McCarthy)

BOL

Good luck Key

*To win 5 units, correct Key?

No, the RISK is 5 units. EXACTLY 5 units, favorites will short pay. (5 units on -120 favorite will pay 4.17 units)

Key,

I was wondering what "RoR" stands for?

Key--what are your thoughts on the Pit's--San Diego game (travel & 19 inn)

Thanks

It stands for Return On Risk, and it is one of the most important formulas you can learn to apply in odds wagering, like baseball or hockey. W-L record or W-L percent can be completely deceiving. In baseball you can win 60% and lose money, or hit 40% and make money, Units have very little to do with it, but are acceptable from most of the better handicappers. The handicappers to fear are the ones posting a nice W-L record with no accounting. The guy that hits 60% with -150 favorites is not making a damn penny and that is why he posts the W-L and brags about it instead of accounting for the results in real money terms.

RoR is simply "what did my investment pay?" and is found by dividing 100 by the quoted line for favorites.
100/135 = .7407 or  cents on the dollar of risk.
If you added the juice and played to make $100 you can describe that as making a "unit" if you wish, but you still made 74 cents on the dollar regardless of the wager size.
Assume three different guys gave you three different picks, -140, -120, and +130. All of them won.
Pick # 1 made 74 cents on the dollar
Pick # 2 made 83 cents on the dollar
Pick # 3 made 130 cents on the dollar
That is why in baseball and hockey the win percent is irrelevant.
I am not one of the more popular handicappers on this site, but how do you think I made 199 units with only 51% winners?
RoR is the answer. I hit a ton of dogs. That also explains the popularity thing. Most viewers want to win a lot of games, not money. They want to be assured that their big home favorites are going to win, regardless of the price or Return On Risk.

I don't really like either side to be honest. I see Rodriguez and Volquez both in decline and very vulnerable, even if the Pirates are a little tired tonight. I was really tempted on the over but it was the extra innings and travel that backed me off that. I am going to leave it alone so BOL whatever you decide.

Key--Thanks for your thoughts---I AM LEANING OVER AS WELL

Thanks

Glad to see we are sharing BAL and KCR. BOL Key!

Key is baseball your only sport? 

Best of Luck 

F5 inning parlay:

Royals and Orioles

NFL:

over 41

ooops almost forgot.  My POD:

RED's

Se puede hacer ese parley todos hasta el 5 ining?

Hey Key what's your take on the Padres tonight with the Pirates playing a 19 inning game yesterday and then the west coast trek?

Oops!  Sorry for the clutter guys

Best of luck, sir......played two of those with you. Damn near fired on the Cubs as well