MLB Week 3

Every year I have faith that Cleveland's fireballer Danny Salazar is gonna break through and every year he looks wildly inconsistent. He does have a decent 3.94 road ERA in 82.1 innings. In 5 starts against the Tigers he owns a 3.27 ERA in 33 innings, including 3 of those starts coming at Comerica Park where he has a 4.41 ERA. The numbers are there but it is interesting to note that despite posting a 3.27 ERA against the Tigers, their roster has a combined .320  BA against him in 75 at-bats. Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera have seen him the most with 14 and 15 ABs respectively, and they boast averages of .357  and .385. Shane Greene has wow'ed the baseball world thus far in 2015 going 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA in 3 starts. He did have a 3.78 ERA in 14 starts last year , which for a 25-year-old rookie pitching in the AL East, isn't too shabby. He made 1 start last year against Cleveland going 6 innings and giving up 2 earned while getting the win. The Indians roster has just 2 hits in 17 at-bats against Greene (.118). It's a tiny sample but from what we've seen this year it doesn't look like this kid is getting any easier to hit. So we've got arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball paired with one of the best offenses in baseball, going against an inconsistent pitcher who despite limiting the run damage has given up hits in bunches to his opponent, and is getting his run support from one of the worst offenses. It looks too easy..

Taking an under with two pitchers who have a combined ERA over 16 seems outrageous buuuut here we are. Jordan Zimmermann and Mat Latos both got blown up in one start and it is the reason behind their extremely high ERAs. But these guys have proven over the years that they are legitimate pitchers. Jordan Zimmermann over the past 3 seasons has a 3.05 road ERA in 286.1 while Mat Latos has a 3.08 home ERA in 277.1 innings. Pretty big samples for these guys to post such low numbers. In the past 3 season Zimmermann has made 12 starts against the Marlins and is 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA, which includes being 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 3 starts at Marlins Park. Latos has faced the Nationals just 3 times in his past 3 seasons and he has a 3.38 ERA against them. Due to Zimmermann's crazy numbers against the Marlins I immediately wanted to jump on the Nats but I kept looking. The Marlins roster has a combined BA of .238 in 164 at-bats against Zimmermann. The Nationals roster has a combined .209 BA in 91 at-bats against Mat Latos. The Nationals normal 3-4-5 of Werth-Harper-Zimmerman are a combined 4 for 31 for a whopping .129 combined average against Latos. While Zimmermann has posted great career numbers against Miami, Latos has been dominant against the best hitters in the Nats lineup in their limited matchups. Both pitchers have improved since their terrible outings and I think the numbers suggest these guys will get it back on the right track. I like the under with two proven pitchers against two offenses who have struggled...

Over the past 3 seasons Danny Duffy has a 1.95 road ERA in 101.1 innings and a 3.72 ERA in 3 starts against the White Sox. Jose Quintana has a 3.64 home ERA in 272 innings and is 0-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 12 starts against the Royals. The current White Sox lineup has a combined .271 BA in 59 at-bats vs. Duffy while the current Royals lineup has a combined .285 BA in 235 at-bats against Quintana. The Royals have seen Quintana way more than the Sox have seen Duffy and they have had success against him as he's never won a game against KC. These two faced off in their first starts of 2015 and both gave up 5 earned over 5 innings. Because I trust their offense more and because they've had more success against their opposing pitcher I give the advantage to the Royals and I see this being a 6-3 type game so getting a + line on the over has some value as well. 

Love this lefty vs. lefty matchup in the Houston vs. Oakland game. Both Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir have been on fire this season with a combined ERA just above 2.00. Last season Keuchel had a 3.04 road ERA and in 4 starts against the A's had a 2.48 ERA against them. In the last 3 seasons he's made 7 starts and 2 relief appearances against Oakland and has a 3.75 ERA against them. Scott Kazmir last year had a 3.62 home ERA and a 2.30 ERA in 4 starts against Houston. In his past 3 seasons he has a 3.11 ERA against the Astros in 6 starts. Both of these pitchers had great success against their opponents last year and both have carried the momentum over into this season pitching very well thru the first few weeks. Kazmir already faced the Astros this year holding them to 1 run. With the way these guys are pitching this year and pitched against each other in the past I like this under a lot.

Wish it were that easy! While you make a decent case for the under there are many stats and other factors that come into play in addition to era and past history when handicapping totals such as weather, humidity, home plate umpire, wind speed, direction of wind, injuries and whether or not teams have been hitting or not hitting. Stanton 7-26 with 3 hr's and Prado 8-17 vs Zimmerman wind blowing at 15mph from left to right and slightly in. 

Latos yet to make it past 5th inning and Miami bullpen with era of 4.94

Nice call on under wash....congrats

one bad week shouldnt stop you King, you were a quality capper, come back!