MLB Week 3

Going to start a new thread each week and post my daily plays in it so that I don't have to start a new topic every day. Two weeks in the books and we've been in the green both weeks. Looking to keep it rolling into Week 3. BOL to all as always. 

Best of Luck this Week  

   well done   bruce   I don't tail but have checked ur posts most days  Real Sharp 

Like I said yesterday I'm gonna start being more selective on my plays and I don't really love any on the slate today. If I had to lean any 2 of them it would be Indians ML (-110) and Indians/Sox Under 9. However I don't love either so I'm sitting tonight out. Best of luck to all of you tonight I will be back for a full slate tomorrow. 

Thankyou KB !!!

Minnesota Run line +1.5! 

It's tough to tail teams who struggle mightily on offense but it helps when they're facing Jason Marquis. Heck, I could hit this guy. In his past 3 seasons, the 36-year-old Marquis, has a 4.80 road ERA in 110.2 innings. He has faced the Brewers twice in those 3 years and against them he owns a 21.32 ERA over 6.1 innings. Yes you read that right. Granted it's a small sample but it's pretty astounding. He faced them one time in a home start where he gave up 7 earned over 4.2 innings and he faced them once at Miller Park where he gave up 8 earned in 1.2 innings. That doesn't happen by mistake. Mike Fiers in the past 3 years has a 3.34 ERA in his 129.1 innings at Miller Park. He improved drastically last year posting a 2.17 ERA at home in 45.2 innings. In 2014 he faced the Reds twice, once in relief and once as a starter and owned a 3.00 ERA against them. His one start he made was 5 innings giving up 2 earned. Over the past 3 seasons Fiers has a 3.08 ERA in 26.1 innings against the Reds which spans 2 relief appearances and 4 starts. Also a small sample, but a bit more impressive than Marquis' sample. The Reds roster has a combined .222 career BA against Fiers in 63 at-bats. There are 3 Reds with double digits AB's against Fiers: Brandon Phillips (2 for 10), Jay Bruce (2 for 13), and Todd Frazier (3 for 13). The Brewers roster on the other hand has a combined .356 career BA vs. Marquis in 87 at-bats. There are 2 Brewers with more than 20 ABs against Marquis in their careers: Ryan Braun is 13 for 25 (.520) with 5 doubles, 1 home run, and 6 RBI's. Aramis Ramirez is 10 for 27 (.370) with a double, a triple, 2 home runs, and 9 RBI's. Trust me I get why the Brewers are laying small chalk, they can't score a run to save their lives. But if there's one things that can fix your hitting woes it's getting some batting practice against Jason Marquis. With such gaudy career numbers against their opposing pitcher, I like Braun, Ramirez, and the rest of the team to get out of their season long slump thus far. Brewers jump out early.

Best of Luck, King!

GL

Last season Hector Santiago made 4 starts against the A's. He posted a 0.77 ERA thru 23.1 innings. Over the past 3 seasons he has made 5 starts and 2 relief appearances against the A's with a 1.99 ERA over 31.2 innings. Drew Pomeranz faced the Angles for the first time in his career last year, making 2 starts and 2 relief appearances. Through 16.2 innings he had a 3.24 ERA against the Halos. 11.1 of those innings were at Angles Field where he made 1 of his 2 starts and both of his relief appearances. He gave up just 1 earned run in those 11.1 innings posting a 0.79 ERA there. That was actually a theme for Pomeranz last year as he posted a 3.48 home ERA and a minuscule 1.42 road ERA. Now the Oakland bats have been hot so taking an under with a team who is 2nd in the MLB in runs scored in 2015 is a bit risky but I like the success that Santiago has showed against the A's in his career and I think they have to slow down at some point. That being said, LA can't hit anything right now and I don't expect that to change one bit with a good young pitcher going for Oakland. Numbers against their opponent favor this under heavily so hopefully they can continue their success. Advantage also to the A's because of the lopsided offensive numbers this year.

I'm probably a sucker for doubling down on a team who is struggling so bad to score... but this just in, Jason Marquis is still pitching tonight. And this line is too good to pass up on.

im not sure if i would put american money on the brew crew. can't hit a lick and then to bet them on the run line….insanity!!

solid analysis, good luck tonight!!!

I guess books are not crazy, neither are stupid and yet, they got Brews the favs atm.

Just to let you know, all of Aramis Rameriz's damage vs Marquis came over 5 years ago. Has only 3 ABs vs him last 5 years (1/3).. No Lucroy, No CarGo. I wouldn't touch that game. 

If they burn me then they burn me and I'll stay away from now on. But +165 on a run line against Marquis who has given up 15 earned in 6 innings against the Brewers the last 3 years, I'm taking that regardless of the slump. And I don't even care who's in their lineup really. Marquis shouldn't even be pitching in the MLB anymore. I'd take a lineup of minor leaguers to hit him. I just think the pitching gap is more than large enough to make up for the offensive gap. I like Fiers at home. Just my opinion though I obviously understand everyone not wanting to take the Brewers, they're pretty awful. But there's struggling on offense, and then there's getting beat by Jason Marquis on your home field. I guess we'll see if they're bad enough to have the latter happen but I don't personally think so.

Pretty good writeups, please doing these, im still only learning MLB and they have good info's.
BOL today!

With you on brew crew 

Good luck KB!

Thanks King I'm with ya. They break out tonight

well apparently when you face the brewers, you are now Nolan Ryan

2 grandslams  back 2 back  un fuckin real  lol