MLB Week 3

Well I was right about milwaukee getting out of their offensive slump. Unfortunately I didnt see the explosion of runs from the Reds coming. Jesus this over woulda been nice.

come back strong tomorrow

You will bounce back . Stay away from Milwaukee and Miami for now on 

keep your head up,  make it back on Cueto

Jeremy Guthrie has been pretty consistent over the past few years. Last year he posted a 4.25 home ERA and a 4.22 April ERA. Over the past 3 years he has a 4.65 home ERA and a 4.26 April ERA. See what I mean by consistency? He did get worse in two categories last year however. Over the past 3 seasons he owned a 3.88 ERA at Kauffman Stadium and posted a 4.25 ERA there in 2014. But most importantly, over the last 3 seasons Guthrie has made 8 starts against the Twins and owns a 3.98 ERA over 52 innings. These numbers took a little dive last year as he posted a 6.23 ERA against them in two starts, giving up 5 earned over 6 when he faced them at home. The Twins are putting Mike Pelfrey on the mound who has been unable to complete a full season in awhile it seems like. In the past 3 years he has a 4.42 road ERA over 89.2 innings and a 5.84 ERA in 61.2 innings in April. He has made 3 starts against the Royals going 0-2 with a 9.49 ERA in just 12.1 innings. Two of those starts have been at Kauffman Stadium where he's 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in 8.1 innings. Lasting just 12.1 innings thru 3 starts and giving up more than 3 ER's each time you face a team isn't great. The current Royals roster has a combined .396 BA in 96 career at-bats against Mike Pelfrey. Of the 10 players with multiple at-bats against him, 8 of them have an average over .300. The current Twins roster has a bit more experience against their opposing pitcher as they have logged 196 at-bats vs. Guthrie with a combined .281 average. There are 3 Twins who have faced Jeremy Guthrie more than 20 times. Kurt Suzuki is 8 for 21 (.381) with 3 doubles, 1 home run and 3 RBI's. Joe Mauer is 9 for 25 (.360) with 3 home runs and 4 RBI's. Torii Hunter is 16 for 49 (.327) with 3 doubles, 1 home run and 8 RBI's. I know many don't trust the Twins offense but they have looked improved the last couple games and they do have pretty solid career numbers against Jeremy Guthrie, especially those with the most experience. I love this over just for those reasons and I truly expect the Twins to score around 4 runs tonight making this over a great play. Heck, even if the Twins get shutout the Royals may put up 8 by themselves. 

It's not very often that you can tail the hottest team in baseball and fade the coldest team in baseball at a good price. Especially considering I like the pitching matchup in both games. So let's go for the parlay.

Like the pitchers. Don't like the offenses. Away from the office so I don't have time for a full writeup but Kluber has had some good numbers against the White Sox and on the road. Samardzija hasn't faced Cleveland but I trust that he can slow down their week offense, especially since they've never seen him. 

i think your a day late and a dollar short on your parlay both favorites  go down . but good luck on the rest of your plays.

Indians/Sox Under 

Mets/Reds Parlay 

In the past 3 season Julio Teheran has a 3.51 road ERA in 200 innings, a 2.89 ERA in 65.1 innings in April, a 2.72 ERA in 6 starts against the Mets over 36.1 innings, and a 3.22 ERA at Citi Field in his 4 starts there (22.1 innings). Now raise your hand if you think Bartolo Colon is capable of keeping up this pace he's on? Anyone? Bueller? Yeah, me neither. In the past 3 years he owns a 3.73 ERA at Citi Field over 99 innings, a 3.56 ERA in 98.2 April innings, and a 2.45 ERA in just 3 starts against the Braves where he is 1-2. He has the edge over Teheran in the opponent matchup as he has a lower ERA but Teheran has made twice as many starts against the Mets than Colon has against the Braves which makes Teheran's 2.72 ERA against the Mets more impressive than Colon's 2.45. At least to me it is. Also the Braves he faced the last 3 years had never faced him before. Now in the Braves starting lineup today are new faces they added in the offseason in Callaspo, Markakis, Pierzynski, and Gomes, all of which have more than 20 at-bats against Colon. Colon is off to a great start and he did give up 3 runs to Atlanta when he faced them earlier this year. If you give up 3 runs to the Braves when Teheran is on the mound that may be all the Braves need. I think this is a great spot to fade the red hot Mets. Colon has been pitching above his own level, and now the Braves put their ace on the mound to avoid a sweep. Anytime you can get the Braves with a + line with Teheran on the mound I'm gonna take it almost every time.

And just when I swore I'd stay away... Homer Bailey comes into Milwaukee with some bad numbers. In 2014 he had a 4.32 road ERA, a 6.15 ERA in April, a 3.49 ERA in 4 starts against the Brewers, and a 5.11 ERA at Miller Park in 2 starts there. Over the past 3 seasons he has been hit by the Brewers. He has made 12 starts against them in that span and thru 77.2 innings he owns an ERA of 4.52. Six of these twelve starts came at Miller Park where he had a 5.15 ERA in 36.2 innings. Kyle Lohse's numbers are silly. 2.72 ERA at home, 2.70 ERA in April, and a 2.14 ERA against the Reds in 5 starts in 2014. They're even more impressive over the past 3 seasons where he owns a 2.67 home ERA, 2.31 April ERA, and in 12 starts against the Reds is 5-2 with a 1.88 ERA. The starting lineup for the Reds today is a combined .264 in 178 career at-bats against Lohse. The starting Brewers lineup is a combined .290 in 138 at-bats against Homer Bailey. Both pitchers have struggled this year and its tough for  me to yet again back this terrible offense but those pitching numbers are so lopsided I can't not take the Brewers at home. Lohse has been absolutely dominant against the Reds for years, I'm gonna side with him.

I don't know king, fading the hottest team in baseball and tailing the coldest team. can't follow you here. BOL

You won't get a chance to follow. Game started 9 seconds after his post

Nice pitching matchup of 2 young kids with some talent here in Tyson Ross of the Padres and Jordan Lyles of the Rockies. Tyson Ross in 2014 posted a 3.79 road ERA and a 3.86 ERA against the Rockies in 2 starts, both of which came at Coors Field. In the past 3 seasons he has a less impressive 4.61 road ERA but posted better numbers against the Rockies. In 5 starts and 2 relief appearances he has a 3.16 ERA against Colorado, 3 of those starts and both relief appearances came at Coors Field where he owns a 3.79 ERA. Jordan Lyles in 2014 had a 3.93 home ERA, which includes a 4.81 ERA at Coors Field. In 3 starts against the Padres he lasted just 13.2 innings and had a 7.24 ERA. Over the past 3 seasons he has a 5.28 home ERA, a 5.88 ERA against the Padres over 5 starts, and a 5.00 ERA in his 11 starts at Coors Field. Both pitchers improved last year but Lyles was still hit pretty well by the Padres. And this Padres lineup is a liiiitle bit better than the one in seasons past, I think we can all agree on that. Just another little tidbit, in the past 3 seasons Tyson Ross has a 2.97 ERA in day games, while Jordan Lyles is 3-13 with a 5.66 ERA in the daytime. Cherry on top is that both rosters have seen these pitchers about the same amount as the Rockies have 75 combined career at-bats against Ross and the Padres have logged 76 at-bats vs. Lyles. In those at-bats the Rockies have a .240 BA with 3 doubles, 1 home run and 3 RBI's against Ross. In the same amount of at-bats, the Padres have a .355 BA with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, and 15 RBI's against Jordan Lyles. While both are young and improving I think Tyson Ross is a better pitcher and he has a huge advantage based on previous matchups. 

1H Brewers -- PUSH

walked money straight out hands      damn lol

Wow the Braves walk in a run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th....

no updates?

just a hiccup, keep the chin up

Miguel Gonzalez still seems to be undervalued by oddsmakers and if you've followed all season you know I think he's quietly one of the most underrated pitchers in the AL. Last time out I took the Orioles +115 at Fenway with this same pitching matchup and they won 8-3. Now they rematch at Camden and the Orioles are -110? I don't really get that. From 2012-2014 Miguel Gonzalez has posted a solid 3.49 ERA in 198.2 innings at home. He has made 8 appearances against the Red Sox, 6 starts and 2 relief, and was 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 43 innings of work. In his road start against them this year he gave up 3 on a first inning home run by Hanley Ramirez and then settled in to throw 4 scoreless innings after that before being pulled. Rick Porcello on the other hand gave up 8 earned runs in that start. He's never actually been that great against the O's before that. In the last 3 season prior to that start, Porcello was 2-3 with a 4.11 ERA in 5 starts against the Orioles. The current Red Sox roster has a combined .236 BA in 89 at-bats against Miguel Gonzalez. The Orioles roster has a combined .298 BA in 205 at-bats against Porcello. This O's lineup has seen their opposing pitcher more, hit him much better, and already lit him up once this year. I'm sticking with Gonzalez who already won this matchup once this year, is solid at home, and has much better career numbers against his opponent. I really like the O's tonight and think that getting the run line (-1.5) at +175 has some value as well but for now I'm rolling with the ML.