Have you explained at all what the basis of your system is? I know a thing or two about power ratings, programming, and even Monte Carlo style analysis (in scientific applications). I'm having a hard time imagining how exactly one would derive a predictive system from Monte Carlo analysis.
Of course I don't expect details, but can you give me some rough idea? Thanks.
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Dear Sir,
Have you explained at all what the basis of your system is? I know a thing or two about power ratings, programming, and even Monte Carlo style analysis (in scientific applications). I'm having a hard time imagining how exactly one would derive a predictive system from Monte Carlo analysis.
Of course I don't expect details, but can you give me some rough idea? Thanks.
Baseball is basically the summation of individual events. Simulate each event and add them up and you have a baseball game. I would guess that I have a baseball statistical database better than most MLB teams. Each pitch is simulated and an outcome calculated based upon probable pitching matchup. A pitch is simulated and could potentially be thrown by the starter or a pitcher from the bullpen to get a result. The numbers crunch pitch by pitch and give me an outcome. Actually, I have converted the output to be bettor advantage and choose units accordingly. It took me three years. It started as a fantasy baseball project and now has other applications.
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Baseball is basically the summation of individual events. Simulate each event and add them up and you have a baseball game. I would guess that I have a baseball statistical database better than most MLB teams. Each pitch is simulated and an outcome calculated based upon probable pitching matchup. A pitch is simulated and could potentially be thrown by the starter or a pitcher from the bullpen to get a result. The numbers crunch pitch by pitch and give me an outcome. Actually, I have converted the output to be bettor advantage and choose units accordingly. It took me three years. It started as a fantasy baseball project and now has other applications.
Makes 0.06 unit profit. The system projected 0.3 units profit by making the play to cancel the first bet. It also says That our initial play was worthy of one unit. I am taking the guaranteed profit. In order to grind out my year, I take what I can get.
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Nationals 189 (3x)
Mets 153 (2x)
Mariners 194 (1x)
Pirates 173 (1x)
Diamondbacks 124 (2x)
Tigers -124 (3x)
A's 114 (1x)
Cubs 242 (1x)
Angels -130 (2x)
Red Sox -110 (1x)
Adding
Blue Jays -190 (1x)
Phillies -240 (1x)
Makes 0.06 unit profit. The system projected 0.3 units profit by making the play to cancel the first bet. It also says That our initial play was worthy of one unit. I am taking the guaranteed profit. In order to grind out my year, I take what I can get.
3-5 -7.64 units. I screwed the pooch buying out of the Cubs and Mariners. The data was borderline. It was within a threshold where a decision had to be made and I made the wrong one. Sorry.
still up 11.37 units overall better day tomorrow
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3-5 -7.64 units. I screwed the pooch buying out of the Cubs and Mariners. The data was borderline. It was within a threshold where a decision had to be made and I made the wrong one. Sorry.
3-3 +0.29 units, +10.2 units overall. I just looked and I am 27th overall in the NHL Playoff picks contest. Not helping us here, but it made me chuckle a little. Anyone just picking up this post, the record is for baseball only. The other picks are posted at request of someone. We did get a win with lakers today. Good luck Celtics and Predators. More to come.
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3-3 +0.29 units, +10.2 units overall. I just looked and I am 27th overall in the NHL Playoff picks contest. Not helping us here, but it made me chuckle a little. Anyone just picking up this post, the record is for baseball only. The other picks are posted at request of someone. We did get a win with lakers today. Good luck Celtics and Predators. More to come.
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