Posted:
#1
Record: 26-14
Twins -1 1/2 (+145)
This is a plus-money run-line play built on the starting pitching gap. Joe Ryan has been excellent at home, carrying a 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and zero home runs allowed in this split. The matchup data backs it up, too. Houston's current bats are hitting just .181 against him with a 38.8% strikeout rate. On the other side, Mike Burrows has limited history against Minnesota, but the contact profile is loud: 105.8 mph average exit velocity and a massive .806 wOBA allowed. With both bullpens leaking runs, the edge is to the starter most likely to hand off a lead. At +145, this number is worth attacking.
Good Luck!
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