Milw. Game 3 and Why

I picked TB ml in game 1 - didn't work out as they were 2-3 losers - debated about taking them on the run line - just couldn't lay 154 +1.5 - licked my wounds and moved on.    Didn't post a selection on game 2.    Let's look at some numbers:  

7     Milw.   Gasser      6

-120  TB      Peralta     7

TB opened as a 120 fav. currently around 113-118 at various places  (sportsmemo.com)   . 

Gasser last started 12 days ago where he gave up 0 runs and got a No Decision.  Prior to that he pitched on Oct 7, where he gave up 1 run and also got a No Decision.   I give him a rating of 6 - a solid pitcher.    Nothing like Miz or Henderson on paper.  

Peralta, last pitched 7 days ago against Clev.   He got the win, however, he gave up 5 hits, 3 bb, 3 strikeouts and 1 earned run.   He has a rating of 7  .   

The ratings are my own methodology using data from a variety of sources.      The ideal handicap situation for me is to find the opening line of -120 for the home team and identical  ratings respectively played in the playoffs - I don't have any.    Then Why - Milw.     In the playoffs thus far when a pitcher has a rating of 6 and they are not facing a pitcher with a negative rating - that team is 3-0 during the playoffs thus far - home/away games.   Also, looking at games with a line of 120 - thus far in the playoffs we haven't had any from the sportsmemo - however, from prev games in the playoffs in years past - it's mixed - some wins some losses.   In addition,  to these ratings - I use another metric to compare pitchers - so far in the Ws - the stronger pitcher numerically has won the game.   On paper, using that metric - Henderson was stronger than Rasmussen (maybe why Henderson opened at -130 in game 2 - not sure) .   In tonight's game - Gasser is stronger slightly compared to Peralta using that metric - call metric X.   

When it comes to a run in the first inning - When a pitcher has had a lay off between starts (12 days) - you often see a run scored - sometimes by both teams or one of the teams.   That's been the situation the last 2 games.     

My Plays:   

   1. Milw - 101   

   2. Small small parlay - Milw/TB run in first inning - yes +100   to Over 7   -115   pays +1.9 to 1 

Good Luck all

BOL Buddah 

@sportschat

 Thanks Bud and back at ya 

Great job as usual. Thanks for the info.

U

I think it’s going to be a great game and a game for in play betting. 

@River_fish

 No problem bud - hopefully they get it done   

@Viennaarsenal84

 I think it definitely should be a great game .  Bol with the in game betting. 

Let’s go Brewers.
Thanks always for your analysis  Buddah

@queensfinest17

Thanks - no problem .    It ain’t over till it’s over - but feeling pretty good . 

@TheBuddah

@Interstellar

@FelixFermin21

 Oh yeah !!!!!    Thanks guys 

@TheBuddah

 Great call 

@D-Town

 Thanks bud

@sportschat

 Thanks bud.