Thanks SN. Good job Bizarro. That line movement was interesting but in the end meant nothing.
TB@BAL UNDER 8 - LOSE $100
CLE ML 1.70 - WIN $170
Overall profit: -$30, -0.30 Units
Record to Date: 77W - 48L, +8.85U
Starting Bankroll: $10,885
Current Bankroll: $10,885, +$885
Total Profit to Date (after 15 days of betting): +$885, +8.85 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.59 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61%
Back in an hour with today's picks. Lots of promising spots.
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Thanks SN. Good job Bizarro. That line movement was interesting but in the end meant nothing.
TB@BAL UNDER 8 - LOSE $100
CLE ML 1.70 - WIN $170
Overall profit: -$30, -0.30 Units
Record to Date: 77W - 48L, +8.85U
Starting Bankroll: $10,885
Current Bankroll: $10,885, +$885
Total Profit to Date (after 15 days of betting): +$885, +8.85 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.59 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61%
Back in an hour with today's picks. Lots of promising spots.
I hope you can keep posting picks for us you do a tremendous job and as you say its a managed system so hopefully you keep posting for us so we can follow the same discipline you do
BOL
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I hope you can keep posting picks for us you do a tremendous job and as you say its a managed system so hopefully you keep posting for us so we can follow the same discipline you do
Thanks Hab. I will do my best to contribute. My goal is to give you guys 28 days of betting, and profit 28 units. Hopefully we can finish strong, but i'd be happy with 14 units profit.
I mainly bet NHL, so I will be providing NHL picks after MLB ends. Goodluck today.
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Thanks Hab. I will do my best to contribute. My goal is to give you guys 28 days of betting, and profit 28 units. Hopefully we can finish strong, but i'd be happy with 14 units profit.
I mainly bet NHL, so I will be providing NHL picks after MLB ends. Goodluck today.
Rough night in Totals. 5W, 6L overall. Totals have been all over the place this year. Going to stick with ML the rest of the way and re-evaluate the Totals model.
CIN@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87 - WIN $187
MIA@ATL UNDER 7 2.02 - PUSH
COL@ARI OVER 8.5 1.88 - LOSE $100
MIL@SF UNDER 7 1.95 - LOSE $100
DET@CWS OVER 9 2.00 - LOSE $100
WAS@SEA UNDER 6 1.92 - LOSE $100
ARI 1.71 - WIN $171
BAL 1.54 - WIN $154
TB 1.57 - LOSE $100
DET 1.65 - WIN $165
KC 1.68 - LOSE $100
TEX 2.19 - WIN $219
Total cost of bets: $1100 (including 1 push)
Total winnings: $896
Overall profit: -$204, 2.04 Units
Record to Date: 82W - 54L, +6.81U
Starting Bankroll: $10,681
Current Bankroll: $10,681, +$681
Total Profit to Date (after 16 days of betting): +$681, +6.81 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.43 Units profit per day. Current win % is 60.3%
Back with ML plays in an hour or so.
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Rough night in Totals. 5W, 6L overall. Totals have been all over the place this year. Going to stick with ML the rest of the way and re-evaluate the Totals model.
CIN@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87 - WIN $187
MIA@ATL UNDER 7 2.02 - PUSH
COL@ARI OVER 8.5 1.88 - LOSE $100
MIL@SF UNDER 7 1.95 - LOSE $100
DET@CWS OVER 9 2.00 - LOSE $100
WAS@SEA UNDER 6 1.92 - LOSE $100
ARI 1.71 - WIN $171
BAL 1.54 - WIN $154
TB 1.57 - LOSE $100
DET 1.65 - WIN $165
KC 1.68 - LOSE $100
TEX 2.19 - WIN $219
Total cost of bets: $1100 (including 1 push)
Total winnings: $896
Overall profit: -$204, 2.04 Units
Record to Date: 82W - 54L, +6.81U
Starting Bankroll: $10,681
Current Bankroll: $10,681, +$681
Total Profit to Date (after 16 days of betting): +$681, +6.81 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.43 Units profit per day. Current win % is 60.3%
My Covers picks history clearly shows a big advantage in ML vs Totals. I missed a few plays here and there and that's why the record isn't the same as my thread, but obviously I am doing much better in ML this year.
ATS Picks
48-24-0
66.67%
+6900
505 of 25134
O/U Picks
25-26-3
49.02%
-1800
13227 of 21566
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My Covers picks history clearly shows a big advantage in ML vs Totals. I missed a few plays here and there and that's why the record isn't the same as my thread, but obviously I am doing much better in ML this year.
one other thing and apologize if it was explained already but how do you arrive at a play? Pitcher, team current state of play, $ being wagered, stats, etc?
thanks
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one other thing and apologize if it was explained already but how do you arrive at a play? Pitcher, team current state of play, $ being wagered, stats, etc?
Np Hoyasaxa. I use over 100 variables, with each variable given a weighted percentage. I can't list them all as there is too many but i can tell you the most important ones. Starting pitcher ERA and WHIP, every projected bullpen members ERA and WHIP that may enter the game, Pitcher and bullpen strikeouts, strikeout rate of opponent, defensive efficiency, runs per game overall season, runs per game last 10 games, runs per game last 3 games all averaged, batting average of home team and road team batting average.
Basically I enter all the data in my custom program I wrote in C++ and my program calculates a winner. I then compare the selection to the market price and if I believe its +EV I will bet, if it is not I will pass.
This should help you get started. Good luck with your capping.
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Np Hoyasaxa. I use over 100 variables, with each variable given a weighted percentage. I can't list them all as there is too many but i can tell you the most important ones. Starting pitcher ERA and WHIP, every projected bullpen members ERA and WHIP that may enter the game, Pitcher and bullpen strikeouts, strikeout rate of opponent, defensive efficiency, runs per game overall season, runs per game last 10 games, runs per game last 3 games all averaged, batting average of home team and road team batting average.
Basically I enter all the data in my custom program I wrote in C++ and my program calculates a winner. I then compare the selection to the market price and if I believe its +EV I will bet, if it is not I will pass.
This should help you get started. Good luck with your capping.
do you weight runs per last 10 games and 3 games higher than season because baseball is very much mental...ex: A's and Giants going opposite right now...
I hear stat guys all the time say they can't consider this but historically it's a proven factor or Peyton Manning would have won like 10 Super Bowls, no?
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do you weight runs per last 10 games and 3 games higher than season because baseball is very much mental...ex: A's and Giants going opposite right now...
I hear stat guys all the time say they can't consider this but historically it's a proven factor or Peyton Manning would have won like 10 Super Bowls, no?
Np Hoyasaxa. I use over 100 variables, with each variable given a weighted percentage. I can't list them all as there is too many but i can tell you the most important ones. Starting pitcher ERA and WHIP, every projected bullpen members ERA and WHIP that may enter the game, Pitcher and bullpen strikeouts, strikeout rate of opponent, defensive efficiency, runs per game overall season, runs per game last 10 games, runs per game last 3 games all averaged, batting average of home team and road team batting average.
Basically I enter all the data in my custom program I wrote in C++ and my program calculates a winner. I then compare the selection to the market price and if I believe its +EV I will bet, if it is not I will pass.
This should help you get started. Good luck with your capping.
hey Sharp, you probably could write a 1200 word essay on this answer, your outline is direct. basically, your using an innovated (by your own mind) data formula, connecting sabermetrics to handicapping a baseball game, powered by Base_Runs / Runs_ Created; that you have fine tuned with numerous advantageous perimeters of initiated concept, with the focus being on all aspects of the pitching game (SP MR CLOSER)
vg results last night 6-2 with the CLE-vs-KC suspended in extra innings (to be played in CLE at a later open date) nice payout on your SEA WIN
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Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:
Np Hoyasaxa. I use over 100 variables, with each variable given a weighted percentage. I can't list them all as there is too many but i can tell you the most important ones. Starting pitcher ERA and WHIP, every projected bullpen members ERA and WHIP that may enter the game, Pitcher and bullpen strikeouts, strikeout rate of opponent, defensive efficiency, runs per game overall season, runs per game last 10 games, runs per game last 3 games all averaged, batting average of home team and road team batting average.
Basically I enter all the data in my custom program I wrote in C++ and my program calculates a winner. I then compare the selection to the market price and if I believe its +EV I will bet, if it is not I will pass.
This should help you get started. Good luck with your capping.
hey Sharp, you probably could write a 1200 word essay on this answer, your outline is direct. basically, your using an innovated (by your own mind) data formula, connecting sabermetrics to handicapping a baseball game, powered by Base_Runs / Runs_ Created; that you have fine tuned with numerous advantageous perimeters of initiated concept, with the focus being on all aspects of the pitching game (SP MR CLOSER)
vg results last night 6-2 with the CLE-vs-KC suspended in extra innings (to be played in CLE at a later open date) nice payout on your SEA WIN
vg results last night 6-2 with the CLE-vs-KC suspended in extra innings (to be played in CLE at a later open date) nice payout on your SEA WIN 
Established in 1995,
GL today GS
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