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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    General Sharps MLB Picks

    «First Previous 567 ... 192021 Next Last»
    GeneralSharp
    sports_Network
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    «First Previous 567 ... 192021 Next Last»
     
    GeneralSharp
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 6:18 AM ET #101



    PIT 1.76 - LOSE $100
    MIL 1.77 - WIN $177
    SF 1.58 - LOSE $100
    TOR 1.88 - LOSE $100
    OAK 1.61 - WIN $161
    WAS 1.71 - LOSE $100

    STL@PIT OVER 7 2.11 - LOSE $100
    TB@BAL UNDER 8 1.83 - LOSE $100
    NYY@KC UNDER 7.5 1.90 - LOSE $100

    Overall cost of bets: $900
    Overall winnings: $338
    Overall profit: -$562

    Absolute disaster last night going 2-7. The only encouragement is some picks were close, but still just a disaster. Last night was a perfect example why bankroll management is so important. Prior to last night, things were looking good with a 65.2% winning percentage, then BAM. A big nasty patch of variance. This is why when you are hot, you don't bet more than your unit size. Even though the night was terrible, after 12 days we are still up 6.69 Units. There will come days, like last week, when I/you will go 7-0 and in the end, it all balances out in this marathon. 



    Record to Date: 62W - 39L, +6.69U
    Starting Bankroll: $10,000
    Current Bankroll: $10,629, +$629

    Total Profit to Date (after 12 days of betting): +$629, +6.29 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.52 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.4%

    Will be back with picks in a few hours. 
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    PIT 1.76 - LOSE $100
    MIL 1.77 - WIN $177
    SF 1.58 - LOSE $100
    TOR 1.88 - LOSE $100
    OAK 1.61 - WIN $161
    WAS 1.71 - LOSE $100

    STL@PIT OVER 7 2.11 - LOSE $100
    TB@BAL UNDER 8 1.83 - LOSE $100
    NYY@KC UNDER 7.5 1.90 - LOSE $100

    Overall cost of bets: $900
    Overall winnings: $338
    Overall profit: -$562

    Absolute disaster last night going 2-7. The only encouragement is some picks were close, but still just a disaster. Last night was a perfect example why bankroll management is so important. Prior to last night, things were looking good with a 65.2% winning percentage, then BAM. A big nasty patch of variance. This is why when you are hot, you don't bet more than your unit size. Even though the night was terrible, after 12 days we are still up 6.69 Units. There will come days, like last week, when I/you will go 7-0 and in the end, it all balances out in this marathon. 



    Record to Date: 62W - 39L, +6.69U
    Starting Bankroll: $10,000
    Current Bankroll: $10,629, +$629

    Total Profit to Date (after 12 days of betting): +$629, +6.29 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.52 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.4%

    Will be back with picks in a few hours. 
     
    GeneralSharp
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 6:24 AM ET #102

    shug you misunderstood me. I never said I only bet favorites. I said I bet favorites a lot, simply because I find the best win% / value in the pick.

    Sure, some ml favorites are overpriced and offer terrible value. I pass on those even though I believe they will win. I will not bet a dog because it offers just value. I will bet a dog when I believe they will win the game. I have bet a few dogs on ml in my thread, not many, but they are there. I also bet half my picks on totals at -105 to -110 and you are ignoring those picks where I am getting paid almost even money. As I said before I bet on any +EV pick. I do not care if its a dog or a favorite, or a total. 

    We all have our own models and betting methods. We all use different bankroll management. I am just telling you what works for me. 
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    shug you misunderstood me. I never said I only bet favorites. I said I bet favorites a lot, simply because I find the best win% / value in the pick.

    Sure, some ml favorites are overpriced and offer terrible value. I pass on those even though I believe they will win. I will not bet a dog because it offers just value. I will bet a dog when I believe they will win the game. I have bet a few dogs on ml in my thread, not many, but they are there. I also bet half my picks on totals at -105 to -110 and you are ignoring those picks where I am getting paid almost even money. As I said before I bet on any +EV pick. I do not care if its a dog or a favorite, or a total. 

    We all have our own models and betting methods. We all use different bankroll management. I am just telling you what works for me. 
     
    GeneralSharp
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 6:27 AM ET #103

    Thanks sotto. Yes, I definitely need a higher win percentage when I bet favorites. As I mentioned to shug, they only make up 40% of my overall bets. The other 50% is totals, and the other 10% is dogs. In the end sniffing out +EV and passing on -EV plays is all that matters to bring in profit. 

    Good luck to you tonight. 
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    Thanks sotto. Yes, I definitely need a higher win percentage when I bet favorites. As I mentioned to shug, they only make up 40% of my overall bets. The other 50% is totals, and the other 10% is dogs. In the end sniffing out +EV and passing on -EV plays is all that matters to bring in profit. 

    Good luck to you tonight. 
     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 7:30 AM ET #104

    2-7 on Monday, this happens, and I mean this happens to everyone who has ever placed a wager on a MLB game. the key element is the "next day recovery methodology" -5.62u ($562) those that understand baseball, and know how it works, comprehend the 'value' that loss possesses, simply 'rebound' with strategic MM attached to the value of a recovering handicapping format the next day, or their after...the lean goes to GeneralSharp on Tuesdays action.....
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    2-7 on Monday, this happens, and I mean this happens to everyone who has ever placed a wager on a MLB game. the key element is the "next day recovery methodology" -5.62u ($562) those that understand baseball, and know how it works, comprehend the 'value' that loss possesses, simply 'rebound' with strategic MM attached to the value of a recovering handicapping format the next day, or their after...the lean goes to GeneralSharp on Tuesdays action.....
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 9:38 AM ET #105

    Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

    I have just discovered your thread and I wish I had earlier.

    I have a tendency to play unders and I have have just been getting absolutely belted every time I play an under. Every single time.

    It doesn't matter if I get a better total live in game, it still ends up going over that. I go away for a few days, unders start hitting again, I then come back, start playing unders and the losing begins again.

    I don't know what you're doing right and what i'm doing wrong in this sport. I'm at a loss. I haven't had a win for weeks.
    You may want to take a close look at this link, it explains one of many formulas connected to TOTAL play> www;tangotiger.net/markov.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

    I have just discovered your thread and I wish I had earlier.

    I have a tendency to play unders and I have have just been getting absolutely belted every time I play an under. Every single time.

    It doesn't matter if I get a better total live in game, it still ends up going over that. I go away for a few days, unders start hitting again, I then come back, start playing unders and the losing begins again.

    I don't know what you're doing right and what i'm doing wrong in this sport. I'm at a loss. I haven't had a win for weeks.
    You may want to take a close look at this link, it explains one of many formulas connected to TOTAL play> www;tangotiger.net/markov.html
     
    oken
    oken
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 10:26 AM ET #106

    BOL
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    BOL
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 12:45 PM ET #107

    Thanks Oken, and SN. Here we go.

    11 Plays, 4 totals, and 7 ML.

    Goodluck everyone. As always $100 flat bet each and all lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.


    STL@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87
    NYY@DET UNDER 8 2.00
    TB@BAL UNDER 7.5 1.83
    CLE@CWS UNDER 8 1.91

    LAD ML 1.91
    SF ML 1.50
    TOR ML 1.76
    KC ML 1.60
    HOU ML 2.09
    CWS ML 1.74
    LAA ML 1.58

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    Thanks Oken, and SN. Here we go.

    11 Plays, 4 totals, and 7 ML.

    Goodluck everyone. As always $100 flat bet each and all lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.


    STL@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87
    NYY@DET UNDER 8 2.00
    TB@BAL UNDER 7.5 1.83
    CLE@CWS UNDER 8 1.91

    LAD ML 1.91
    SF ML 1.50
    TOR ML 1.76
    KC ML 1.60
    HOU ML 2.09
    CWS ML 1.74
    LAA ML 1.58

     
    jkatakoon
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 1:13 PM ET #108

    Good luck today, GS. 

    I was on the Yanks/Tigers under as well as the Rays/Os under yesterday. Pretty sickening to see the Tigers bull pen blow up and allow two runs in the top of the 9th to hit the over.. And Odorozzi to give up homer after homer after homer in the 5th inning, and then for there to be no more runs throughout the rest of the game..

    Liking Yanks/Tigers and Rays/Os under again today as well. Hopefully we won't get burned two days in a row..
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    Good luck today, GS. 

    I was on the Yanks/Tigers under as well as the Rays/Os under yesterday. Pretty sickening to see the Tigers bull pen blow up and allow two runs in the top of the 9th to hit the over.. And Odorozzi to give up homer after homer after homer in the 5th inning, and then for there to be no more runs throughout the rest of the game..

    Liking Yanks/Tigers and Rays/Os under again today as well. Hopefully we won't get burned two days in a row..
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2014 - 1:22 PM ET #109

    Thanks Jkat. Yeah it is tough to lose close ones, but I try to look at the positive. At least we were not way off, and that our model is on the right track. Best of luck today. 
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    Thanks Jkat. Yeah it is tough to lose close ones, but I try to look at the positive. At least we were not way off, and that our model is on the right track. Best of luck today. 
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 5:24 AM ET #110

    Amazing what 2-7 brings to the table the next day..outstanding results yesterday (8-3) including 3-1 on your UNDERS; a full unit recovery, congratulations on a job well done
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    Amazing what 2-7 brings to the table the next day..outstanding results yesterday (8-3) including 3-1 on your UNDERS; a full unit recovery, congratulations on a job well done
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 5:29 AM ET #111

    Thank you Sports_Network. Nice to see a good rebound. The variance will always swing either way but as long as we protect our bankroll, we are good. Appreciate the kind words.
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    Thank you Sports_Network. Nice to see a good rebound. The variance will always swing either way but as long as we protect our bankroll, we are good. Appreciate the kind words.
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 5:37 AM ET #112

    A great bounce back going 8-3. 


    STL@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87 WIN $187
    NYY@DET UNDER 8 2.00 - WIN $200
    TB@BAL UNDER 7.5 1.83 - WIN $183
    CLE@CWS UNDER 8 1.91 - LOSE $100

    LAD ML 1.91 - WIN $191
    SF ML 1.50 - WIN $150
    TOR ML 1.76 - LOSE $100
    KC ML 1.60 - WIN $160
    HOU ML 2.09 - WIN $209
    CWS ML 1.74 - LOSE $100
    LAA ML 1.58 - WIN $158

    Overall cost of bets: $1100
    Overall winnings: $1438
    Overall profit: $338



    Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
    Starting Bankroll: $11,007
    Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007

    Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
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    A great bounce back going 8-3. 


    STL@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87 WIN $187
    NYY@DET UNDER 8 2.00 - WIN $200
    TB@BAL UNDER 7.5 1.83 - WIN $183
    CLE@CWS UNDER 8 1.91 - LOSE $100

    LAD ML 1.91 - WIN $191
    SF ML 1.50 - WIN $150
    TOR ML 1.76 - LOSE $100
    KC ML 1.60 - WIN $160
    HOU ML 2.09 - WIN $209
    CWS ML 1.74 - LOSE $100
    LAA ML 1.58 - WIN $158

    Overall cost of bets: $1100
    Overall winnings: $1438
    Overall profit: $338



    Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
    Starting Bankroll: $11,007
    Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007

    Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 5:39 AM ET #113

    *Correction: Starting bankroll $10,000, not $11,007. Time for morning coffee.


    Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
    Starting Bankroll: $10,000
    Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007

    Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
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    *Correction: Starting bankroll $10,000, not $11,007. Time for morning coffee.


    Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
    Starting Bankroll: $10,000
    Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007

    Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 6:02 AM ET #114

    Today's Plays: Wednesday August 27th: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.

    9 Plays Today. Best of luck everybody.


    NYY@DET UNDER 7.5 1.94
    BOS@TOR OVER 8.5 1.98
    MIA@LAA UNDER 8 1.95

    ATL 1.78
    LAD 1.50
    SF 1.50
    DET 1.58
    TOR 1.72
    OAK 1.63
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    Today's Plays: Wednesday August 27th: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.

    9 Plays Today. Best of luck everybody.


    NYY@DET UNDER 7.5 1.94
    BOS@TOR OVER 8.5 1.98
    MIA@LAA UNDER 8 1.95

    ATL 1.78
    LAD 1.50
    SF 1.50
    DET 1.58
    TOR 1.72
    OAK 1.63
     
    GeneralSharp
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 2:39 PM ET #115

    Adding CLE 1.54 and WAS 1.64

    11 plays overall.

    Goodluck everybody.
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    Adding CLE 1.54 and WAS 1.64

    11 plays overall.

    Goodluck everybody.
     
    jkatakoon
    jkatakoon
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 2:43 PM ET #116

    Nice day yesterday!

    I missed putting in all my unders, and would've gone 6-1 on them. SMH.

    On to a new day.. I see you're riding the Yanks/Tigers under train again. I like it as well! 

    Thoughts on Under Braves/Mets and Under Brewers/Pads?
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    Nice day yesterday!

    I missed putting in all my unders, and would've gone 6-1 on them. SMH.

    On to a new day.. I see you're riding the Yanks/Tigers under train again. I like it as well! 

    Thoughts on Under Braves/Mets and Under Brewers/Pads?
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 2:57 PM ET #117

    I very rarely take under 6.5 (3-2 late game becomes 3-3) key number.

    I will not bet an under with Des (SD) falling apart, especially vs. MIL bats.

    GL
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    I very rarely take under 6.5 (3-2 late game becomes 3-3) key number.

    I will not bet an under with Des (SD) falling apart, especially vs. MIL bats.

    GL
     
    Cdzmiller
    Cdzmiller
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 3:17 PM ET #118

    GS -

    I am getting even $ on the under 7.5 NYY/DET & even $ on ML NY Mets. Both of these are against what you are taking, but you bet any Even $ plays. Thoughts?

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    GS -

    I am getting even $ on the under 7.5 NYY/DET & even $ on ML NY Mets. Both of these are against what you are taking, but you bet any Even $ plays. Thoughts?

     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 4:26 PM ET #119

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    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 5:28 PM ET #120

    CD i have under 7.5 in the DET game, read my picks again.

    I don't take picks just cause they pay out more, i take picks i think will win that have value. I pass on picks I think will win that have negative value.
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    CD i have under 7.5 in the DET game, read my picks again.

    I don't take picks just cause they pay out more, i take picks i think will win that have value. I pass on picks I think will win that have negative value.
     
    Cdzmiller
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 7:45 PM ET #121

    My apologies. The even $ was coming in on the over.
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    My apologies. The even $ was coming in on the over.
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 8:00 PM ET #122

    No problem CD, best of luck tonight.

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    No problem CD, best of luck tonight.

     
    Red_Soxxxxxxxx
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2014 - 11:28 PM ET #123

    Very frustrating. Tailed two days ago and lost. Missed yesterday and tailed all today and got destroyed. I'm done here now. Wow. Not even close
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    Very frustrating. Tailed two days ago and lost. Missed yesterday and tailed all today and got destroyed. I'm done here now. Wow. Not even close
     
    smithyy
    smithyy
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    Posted: Aug. 28, 2014 - 9:14 AM ET #124

    Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

    Very frustrating. Tailed two days ago and lost. Missed yesterday and tailed all today and got destroyed. I'm done here now. Wow. Not even close


    Wait until all the games have finished 1 unit down for the night, not "destroyed."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

    Very frustrating. Tailed two days ago and lost. Missed yesterday and tailed all today and got destroyed. I'm done here now. Wow. Not even close


    Wait until all the games have finished 1 unit down for the night, not "destroyed."
     
     
    GeneralSharp
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    Posted: Aug. 28, 2014 - 9:32 AM ET #125

    Thanks smithyy, yeah it was not a profitable night, but definitely not destroyed. 6-5 overall. RedSox, I take it you didn't flat bet and went big on a few plays? It's a marathon. You can sprint at the beginning and expect to win. 

    I know its a broken record, and all we hear is bankroll management, bankroll management, bankroll management, well that is because that is 50% of winning. The other 50% is picking winners. You can just take a big shot at a few plays and hope you win big. 


    NYY@DET UNDER 7.5 1.94 - LOSE $100
    BOS@TOR OVER 8.5 1.98 - LOSE $100
    MIA@LAA UNDER 8 1.95 - WIN $195

    ATL 1.78 - WIN $178
    LAD 1.50 - WIN $150
    SF 1.50  - WIN $150
    DET 1.58 - LOSE $100
    TOR 1.72 - WIN $172
    OAK 1.63 - WIN 163
    WAS 1.64 - LOSE $100
    CLE 1.54 - LOSE $154

    Overall cost of bets: $1100
    Overall winnings: $1008
    Overall profit: -$92


    Back in an hour with plays, just updating my database. 

    I can't stress this enough. I am a grinder. I am a high volume player that flat bets. I don't do 5* plays or "locks" of the day, etc... I bet the same amount on each play that I believe has positive expected value. Please don't spot pick plays and get angry when they lose. Understand the betting method and strategy here and you will be a long term winner. There are no quick easy bucks.


    Record to Date: 76W - 47L, +9.15U
    Starting Bankroll: $10,915
    Current Bankroll: $10,915, +$915

    Total Profit to Date (after 14 days of betting): +$915, +9.15 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.65 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.2%
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    Thanks smithyy, yeah it was not a profitable night, but definitely not destroyed. 6-5 overall. RedSox, I take it you didn't flat bet and went big on a few plays? It's a marathon. You can sprint at the beginning and expect to win. 

    I know its a broken record, and all we hear is bankroll management, bankroll management, bankroll management, well that is because that is 50% of winning. The other 50% is picking winners. You can just take a big shot at a few plays and hope you win big. 


    NYY@DET UNDER 7.5 1.94 - LOSE $100
    BOS@TOR OVER 8.5 1.98 - LOSE $100
    MIA@LAA UNDER 8 1.95 - WIN $195

    ATL 1.78 - WIN $178
    LAD 1.50 - WIN $150
    SF 1.50  - WIN $150
    DET 1.58 - LOSE $100
    TOR 1.72 - WIN $172
    OAK 1.63 - WIN 163
    WAS 1.64 - LOSE $100
    CLE 1.54 - LOSE $154

    Overall cost of bets: $1100
    Overall winnings: $1008
    Overall profit: -$92


    Back in an hour with plays, just updating my database. 

    I can't stress this enough. I am a grinder. I am a high volume player that flat bets. I don't do 5* plays or "locks" of the day, etc... I bet the same amount on each play that I believe has positive expected value. Please don't spot pick plays and get angry when they lose. Understand the betting method and strategy here and you will be a long term winner. There are no quick easy bucks.


    Record to Date: 76W - 47L, +9.15U
    Starting Bankroll: $10,915
    Current Bankroll: $10,915, +$915

    Total Profit to Date (after 14 days of betting): +$915, +9.15 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.65 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.2%
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