Fading Teams Returning Home: Monday, 5/15/2023

?Fading teams returning home after a five or more game roadtrip: 

50-25 (66.7%)

Returning home with one or more days off:

Fading them: 28-14 (66.7%)

Today’s fades:
none

?Returning home with NO day off:

Fading them: 22-11 (66.7%)

Today’s fades:
Cardinals, Rangers, Astros, Padres
 
Good luck!

oooh Cardinals. 

thanks for the heads up 

Fade Valdez, uh-uh, not based on a system. 

Systems.. lol, smh,   Well at least you have some data. I took the Cards. Looks like they're starting to turn things around. 

Dude, I like your system data. Especially the shit teams on long road trips coming home and betting against them, or taking the +1.5 for the other team.

I'll track it for this season and see how it goes. Dodgers were pretty much an outlier as they swept SD at home after a long road trip. I'm curious to know if they'll have a letdown in the Minny series the next few days.

I do this but not all the time, just when I think of it but I do 7 or more away, 0 or 1 day rest, and then when the away team is +110 or higher vs the returning home team.   Would be great to see the actual data for it if someone wants to track this subset.

@Sladerunningfox

 thanks for the heads up

@Sladerunningfox

 Very interested to know:

Is that just for this year? Seems like 75 games this year so far of teams returning home after a five or more game roadtrip is a lot. Maybe last 5 years?

Are all 3 stats exactly 2-1 winners (66.7%)? That seems too contrived. Over what time frame?

Thank you.

@SabrinaSez

When I mean track it, I'll just do it for my own personal records....I don't have the time to track and post.

I'm curious about the St. Loo home series vs Milwaukee today. St. Loo are +110 dogs after having a really good road trip (6 games) and seem to be turning the corner?

22 - 11 with no day off is crazy at this point of the season. I'm going to back track it this year and see how my +1.5 would hit if I bet against those teams coming home off that 5+ road trip.

@Sladerunningfox

Today’s fades:
Cardinals, Rangers, Astros, Padres 

Thanks for posting this....saves me the time doing it myself.

@tvigilante2020

 Peralta/Matz is the reason, better offense match for the Brewers as well. I am not playing it but am not buying stock in the Cardinals yet either. They still have a lot to prove. 

Double angle for FADING CARDS....

Sunday night ball winner AUTOFADE scenario..

Only hitch there is they are on win streak

Bol guys

@camby700

 Isn’t the angle stronger if it’s a Sunday night winner that stays on the road? In this instance, they’re returning home

@Sladerunningfox

Angle reminds me of an old NBA angle  about fading teams coming back from at least a six game road trip     I haven't bet regular season NBA for a few years focused on college but when I did it seemed like a good spot to face a team    

The theory behind it was that when a team returns from a long road trip they have a number of distractions that first day back primarily family things   Would think a similar situation makes sense for returning baseball teams

Was looking into Atlanta but at -141 I was hoping it would drop below but at -147 now and I don't trust grabbing -1.5(+117) with Morton lol. It has a shot but still debating. No idea what to expect from this new pitcher from the Rangers 

@monkeebooger

 Yes its stronger when they stay on the road, no play on cards... if anything play cards they are getting their crap together!

I am playing: 

Fade Astros so CHC +165
Fade Padres so KC +190 (both for 100 units - hoping 1 wins. ( I actully think KC is a pretty good dog, better pitcher, KC won 5 of last 10, SD 3-7 and SD batting .205 in last 7 (vs. Dodgers, but still did you see the pic of the 3 Padres billionaires laughing in the dugout losing 4-0 late in game?) 

And:

Fade St. Lou so Milw -115

Fade Texas so Atl -140 

Good luck to all!

Updated records and additional information:

1. Slightly updated records to include Giants win with one day off after road trip including neutral games in Mexico.

Fading teams returning home after a five or more game roadtrip: 

Total: 49-27 (64.5%)

Returning home with one or more days off:

Fading them: 28-15 (65.1%)

Today’s fades: none

?Returning home with NO day off:

Fading them: 21-12 (63.6%)

Today’s fades:
Cardinals, Rangers, Astros, Padres

2. Fading favorites vs dogs returning home after road trip of 5 or more games:

Fading favorites: 25-21 (54.4%)

Fading dogs: 24-6 (80.0%)

(Of course, these records don’t take into account the EV.)
 
Good luck!

I do like Royals here

2. Fading favorites vs dogs returning home after road trip of 5 or more games:

Fading favorites: 25-21 (54.4%)

Fading dogs: 24-6 (80.0%)

_____________

Nice angle here.

Excellent info- I do a bit of this myself.

Terrific and insightful commentary ...exactly what Covers is meant to be 

@Sladerunningfox

 I wonder what the record would be coming back and playing against division foes at home?

great info

Fading Pirates and Angels tomorrow seems strong