Daj Model 6/25

OVERALL RECORD: 46-35 (56.8%) --- UNITS: +9.29u

*All 1u flat bets

Royals ML +123

Royals RL (+1.5) -175

Mariners ML -144

woa gutsy call on the Royals ML. Do you really trust Lugo to contain the Rays in 6-7 innings? I understand that Rays are regressing for the past weeks but this is a tough spot and not that good of a value for just +123 for Royals ML but good luck on your play! When bullpen comes in I dont think Royals has any advantage. Royals lead the series 2-1 and I think Rays will even it today. 

@Way2Good

 He not going to listen to any of that. He plays by his model

@s1ick

 You’re right lol. Live and die by the model 

@Way2Good

 The model points to where there is +EV. Doesn’t mean guaranteed win. Just where there is found value between model expectations and the actual line.

How are they +EV at that angle? Curious with it. Lugo is definitely not an ace pitcher, Rays is dominant at home and he barely gets 4+ strikeouts in a game. Lugo has 3.69 ERA on the surface, but the underlying is ugly. Expected ERA of 5.20 (15th percentile), 11th percentile in expected BAA, 4th percentile in whiff, 19th percentile in barrel. Just 66 strikeouts in 85.1 innings, and he failed to get five strikeouts in each of his three June starts, with zero strikeouts over six innings his last time out. He gets squared up. If maybe +140 or higher then I see the value, but at only +123 I highly doubt it. 

I am not disagreeing necessarily with what you say your model says about +EV.

But for you to see an edge of 5-6% you are saying your model thinks the line should have been +109 to +112.

That is what you see for that game?

I had it way different.  I think the line was very deflated because of how well KC has played this series and how poorly TB played.  I think it should have been way more in line with the other games.

BOL either way 

@Raiders22

 I have multiple models running alongside this model. Each with its own way of analyzing. One of the other models is firmly on the Rays. This model has been by far the most consistent. I don’t nitpick every individual game. The way you or your model are spitting out expectations will have different parameters/data on the backend compared to this model. 

My suggestion is to follow along and compare your plays against the model. When your plays match the model, what is the W/L, P/L and ROI?  When you are against the model, what are your stats on those plays?  You can use the resources to build out an increased edge. 

@Raiders22

 probably that is the best way to say it. Tampa was horribly flat the first two games. If I would price Royals for this game I would put them at +140 or better but for sure bookmakers know better and putting them at +120 was really making it look sharp. I took Rays -0.5 f5 at +102 and it cashed easily. No more plays for me for this game.

@Dajsports1

die most the time

@gary4323

 Tend to disagree with that train of thought. But to each their own 

@Dajsports1

you mean woman model ?? 16 ,21 years old 

ADD:

A's/Giants OV 8 -114

Yessir.  If you are modeling something that uses stats that are giving you a good 5-6% edge in MLB consistently that is about what you want.

I just do not know what type of stats would show a line +109 to +112 with those teams or those starting pitchers is what I am saying.

I think that is about right.  I had it a tad higher.  But that is the general idea -- to catch something that the market has underpriced by enough to give you a theoretical edge.

@Raiders22

 Just want to thank you btw.  I recalibrate every 2-3 days.  My recalibration 2 nights ago had a bug that reverted all stats to solely just the year to date.  Would not have caught this until after tonight's games, if you didn't question and make me take a look at everything.  KC would have become a no play.  Mariners ML would still have been a play.  Appreciate your feedback.  Saved me money on the rest of tonight's slate

@Dajsports1

 Yessir.  I use multiple models as well.  If one is way out of line with the others I have to look at why.

BOL the rest of the day

Not neccesarily true at all.  Percentage is percentage -- no matter the total. 

@Dajsports1

 I’m interested what type of model do you have and what are the variables. Do you use xgboost?

@wantwinners

 You're right.  Just fade every play I post.  Doesn't hurt my feelings