Posted:
#1
Couple Thoughts
We did it 
Posted:
#20
I’ve spent a good part of the day stress testing Milwaukee 1st 5 -0.5
The starting pitching edge is obvious. Misiorowski has been dominant all season, and the underlying numbers back it up. Manaea has had some solid stretches, but the overall profile, recent contact numbers and matchup are not in the same neighborhood.
Then I waited on the lineups.
The Mets are sending several left handed bats at Misiorowski, which has actually been the side he has handled the best. Milwaukee answered Manaea with a heavily right handed lineup, which is exactly what I wanted to see based on his splits.
I also tried to kill the play. Milwaukee is without Yelich and Turang. Misiorowski has had his workload managed at times. There is some weather in the area. All of that matters, but none of it has been strong enough to break the handicap.
His recent workload has been normal, the lineup construction fits the matchup, and the weather looks more like something to monitor than something that should take me off the game.
Right now Milwaukee 1st 5 -0.5 is on the short card
Posted:
#21
I’ve spent some time stress testing Kansas City 1st 5, and this one continues to hold up pretty well.
The foundation is the starting pitching matchup. Noah Cameron’s season numbers tell me he is not some hidden ace, but he has been pitching extremely well over the last month and his recent contact profile has been excellent. The strikeout numbers can be a little volatile, but when he is locating, he has shown he can control a game.
Toronto did exactly what I expected and loaded the lineup with right handed bats against him. Eight of the nine hitters are right handed, so I am not ignoring that. That is probably the biggest piece of resistance in the handicap.
Then Kansas City posted its lineup, and that helped considerably.
The Royals are throwing a very left handed lineup at Spencer Arrighetti, and that is the side that has given him the most trouble. Jensen, Caglianone, Pasquantino, Rave, Rojas and Isbel all hit from the left side, with Collins able to switch. Witt sits right in the middle of that group. From a lineup construction standpoint, Kansas City is attacking the weakness we wanted them to attack.
I also like Salvador Perez at DH with Carter Jensen catching. That improves the defense behind Cameron, which matters when part of the handicap is asking him to control the first five innings.
I tried to kill this one too. Cameron’s season long underlying numbers are closer to a four ERA pitcher than his recent results suggest. Toronto has built its lineup specifically for a left hander, and Cameron has shown some volatility from start to start. None of that gets ignored.
The reason I keep coming back to the first five is that I can isolate Cameron against Arrighetti and stay away from the biggest weakness on the Kansas City side, which is that bullpen.
Right now, Kansas City 1st 5 Is on the short card
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