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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Bodio's MLB Fri 07/01 (Picks + BREAKDOWN)

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    bodio
    ac_bum
    Iw1nBets
    Denverb
    mrquija27
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 12728
    Posts: 73
    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 7:36 AM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

    Action Parlay: 
    Rafa Nadal (-225) / Sweden Women PK (-175)

    About +120 odds...

    Sweden is referring to the Women's World Cup match this morning. 


    Sorry my mistake.  The Sweden match is Saturday morning not today...
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    Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

    Action Parlay: 
    Rafa Nadal (-225) / Sweden Women PK (-175)

    About +120 odds...

    Sweden is referring to the Women's World Cup match this morning. 


    Sorry my mistake.  The Sweden match is Saturday morning not today...
     
    ac_bum
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 7:41 AM ET #27

    Go get buddy!!!!
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    Go get buddy!!!!
     
    Iw1nBets
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 8:00 AM ET #28

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    Denverb
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 8:56 AM ET #29

    GL 
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    GL 
     
    mrquija27
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 9:12 AM ET #30

    WHAT THE FUCK!!!  How do you have time for that shit!  It would take me 3 hours just to write it even if you told me what to write!
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    WHAT THE FUCK!!!  How do you have time for that shit!  It would take me 3 hours just to write it even if you told me what to write!
     
    grindstone
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 10:03 AM ET #31

    Great write up Bodio today

    I'm leaning with

    LAA -118 today any thoughts?

    Thank you  Sir
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    Great write up Bodio today

    I'm leaning with

    LAA -118 today any thoughts?

    Thank you  Sir
     
    grindstone
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 10:05 AM ET #32

    Nice write up's Bodio

    today I'm leaning with

    LAA -118 any thoughts?




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    Nice write up's Bodio

    today I'm leaning with

    LAA -118 any thoughts?




     
    BanjaBoo
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 10:08 AM ET #33

    Goodluck BODIO!! I PMed you like you told me too... LETS GET IT TODAY!!

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    Goodluck BODIO!! I PMed you like you told me too... LETS GET IT TODAY!!

     
    stevewolve
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 10:10 AM ET #34

    Love White sox, and Under in Tampa.............gl.............
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    Love White sox, and Under in Tampa.............gl.............
     
    LVTruck
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 10:10 AM ET #35

    BOL TODAY
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    BOL TODAY
     
    chadebennett
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 10:13 AM ET #36

    Awesome write ups as always. Appreciate the work!

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    Awesome write ups as always. Appreciate the work!

     
    kvs23
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 11:43 AM ET #37

    Just cut and paste a response I had to Bodio offline - as if others have views/inputs, would love to hear too.

    -----

    * Will try to get some "real" proof on streaks for you.
     
    * Remember we were talking about ML vs RL a while ago.  Today, NYY is -106 and -1.5 +150 (51.5% and 40%) - for a spread of just 11.5% - when most games should be 17%.  In fact, lots of other bigger favorites (TB -137, CIN -124) have bigger RLs (TB -1.5 +151, CIN -1.5 +167) - and both these have (slightly) higher game totals - so that isn't reason.  This is b/c everyone "pounds" NYY R/L - so maybe value in opposite - or even a spread bet (NYY ML and NYM RL).  Just thinking out loud.
     
    * My book offers RL for 1st 5 innings - so games like SF/DET, CLE/CIN, PIT/WAS, STL/TB - I like bets of Dog +1/2 run for 1st 5 (generally laying -120 to -150) which is fine b/c I win the 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 games.  Something you should REALLY look at - esp with good starting pitchers that is a dog or slight dog.
     
    * How about CWS 2H bet - given the bullpen issues with CHC or same with SF/DET given BP discrepencacy.  I haven't seen 2H lines yet but gotta believe SF will be a dog (given they are dog in game).
     
    * How is NYY not a bet - given small price and vs LEFTY (and A-Rod/Granderson had rest day yesterday)?  And they are on "winning" trend which as we both know is HUGE factor :)

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    Just cut and paste a response I had to Bodio offline - as if others have views/inputs, would love to hear too.

    -----

    * Will try to get some "real" proof on streaks for you.
     
    * Remember we were talking about ML vs RL a while ago.  Today, NYY is -106 and -1.5 +150 (51.5% and 40%) - for a spread of just 11.5% - when most games should be 17%.  In fact, lots of other bigger favorites (TB -137, CIN -124) have bigger RLs (TB -1.5 +151, CIN -1.5 +167) - and both these have (slightly) higher game totals - so that isn't reason.  This is b/c everyone "pounds" NYY R/L - so maybe value in opposite - or even a spread bet (NYY ML and NYM RL).  Just thinking out loud.
     
    * My book offers RL for 1st 5 innings - so games like SF/DET, CLE/CIN, PIT/WAS, STL/TB - I like bets of Dog +1/2 run for 1st 5 (generally laying -120 to -150) which is fine b/c I win the 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 games.  Something you should REALLY look at - esp with good starting pitchers that is a dog or slight dog.
     
    * How about CWS 2H bet - given the bullpen issues with CHC or same with SF/DET given BP discrepencacy.  I haven't seen 2H lines yet but gotta believe SF will be a dog (given they are dog in game).
     
    * How is NYY not a bet - given small price and vs LEFTY (and A-Rod/Granderson had rest day yesterday)?  And they are on "winning" trend which as we both know is HUGE factor :)

     
    Brian_Kim
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 12:01 PM ET #38

    GL  bodio
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    GL  bodio
     
    yogz1
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 12:04 PM ET #39

    gl Bodio.....
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    gl Bodio.....
     
    jo14014
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 12:07 PM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

    Los Angeles Dodgers 36-46 (44%) @ LAA Angels 42-40 (51%)

    H. Kuroda, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 3.82 (#89 in MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#54 in MLB), and tERA of 4.16 (#94 in MLB), with a BABIP of .282, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.75, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .249. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

    T. Chatwood, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 4.36 (#140 in MLB), xFIP of 4.67 (#173 in MLB), and tERA of 5.17 (#169 in MLB), with a BABIP of .291, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.07, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 33% for a 1.34 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

    Los Angeles Dodgers have the #18 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a road record of 17-22 (44%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

    LAA Angels have the #16 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.

    Angels are 11-4 in ILP this year and 36-15 in the last couple of years. They are 6-3 with a day off. Dodgers are 5-7 in ILP, 18-27 last couple of years and 3-5 with a day off.

    Odds: LAD -102 (50%) LAA -104 (51%) O/U = 7

    Lean: Angels
    =======================================

    San Diego Padres 37-45 (45%) @ Seattle Mariners 39-42 (48%)

    D. Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.98 (#104 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.88 (#65 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.94. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.59, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .251. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 32% for a 1.62 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

    J. Vargas, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.78 (#84 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64 (#46 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.11. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.27, with a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 45% for a 0.84 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

    San Diego Padres have the #2 bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 18-18 (50%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 4 in a row.

    Seattle Mariners have the #10 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a home record of 23-22 (51%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.



    Odds: SDP +122 (45%) SEA -130 (57%) O/U = 6.5

    Lean: none
    =======================================

     

    Just seems like a lot of stuff to digest huh? It may payoff for a lot of work put in. gl.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

    Los Angeles Dodgers 36-46 (44%) @ LAA Angels 42-40 (51%)

    H. Kuroda, starting for Los Angeles Dodgers, has a FIP of 3.82 (#89 in MLB), xFIP of 3.55 (#54 in MLB), and tERA of 4.16 (#94 in MLB), with a BABIP of .282, LOB% of 78%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.75, with a WHIP of 1.25, and opponent BA of .249. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.26 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 11%.

    T. Chatwood, starting for LAA Angels, has a FIP of 4.36 (#140 in MLB), xFIP of 4.67 (#173 in MLB), and tERA of 5.17 (#169 in MLB), with a BABIP of .291, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of -0.72. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.07, with a WHIP of 1.47, and opponent BA of .261. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 22%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 33% for a 1.34 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

    Los Angeles Dodgers have the #18 bullpen, #20 offense, and are rated #15 in fielding. They have a road record of 17-22 (44%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

    LAA Angels have the #16 bullpen, #16 offense, and are rated #6 in fielding. They have a home record of 18-20 (47%), ranked #23 in MLB and have Won 3 in a row.

    Angels are 11-4 in ILP this year and 36-15 in the last couple of years. They are 6-3 with a day off. Dodgers are 5-7 in ILP, 18-27 last couple of years and 3-5 with a day off.

    Odds: LAD -102 (50%) LAA -104 (51%) O/U = 7

    Lean: Angels
    =======================================

    San Diego Padres 37-45 (45%) @ Seattle Mariners 39-42 (48%)

    D. Moseley, starting for San Diego Padres, has a FIP of 3.98 (#104 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.88 (#65 in MLB), with a BABIP of .271, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of -0.94. He has a K/BB ratio of 1.59, with a WHIP of 1.27, and opponent BA of .251. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 51%, FB%: 32% for a 1.62 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

    J. Vargas, starting for Seattle Mariners, has a FIP of 3.78 (#84 in MLB), xFIP of 4.16 (#132 in MLB), and tERA of 3.64 (#46 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 73%, and E-F of 0.11. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.27, with a WHIP of 1.21, and opponent BA of .238. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 38%, FB%: 45% for a 0.84 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

    San Diego Padres have the #2 bullpen, #27 offense, and are rated #18 in fielding. They have a road record of 18-18 (50%), ranked #11 in MLB and have Won 4 in a row.

    Seattle Mariners have the #10 bullpen, #30 offense, and are rated #20 in fielding. They have a home record of 23-22 (51%), ranked #15 in MLB and have Lost 3 in a row.



    Odds: SDP +122 (45%) SEA -130 (57%) O/U = 6.5

    Lean: none
    =======================================

     

    Just seems like a lot of stuff to digest huh? It may payoff for a lot of work put in. gl.

     
    SMusial
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 12:09 PM ET #41

    Do you ever add official picks later in the day? Just didn't know if I should periodically check your daily threads.....
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    Do you ever add official picks later in the day? Just didn't know if I should periodically check your daily threads.....
     
    cuso
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 12:29 PM ET #42

    Good luck Bodio.
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    Good luck Bodio.
     
    kruss
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 12:57 PM ET #43

    good write up thank you .
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    good write up thank you .
     
    bigwreck
    bigwreck
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 1:02 PM ET #44

    GL
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    GL
     
    ionutt79
    ionutt79
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 1:29 PM ET #45

    thank you for your time Bodio, GL today
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    thank you for your time Bodio, GL today
     
    5t4r5align
    5t4r5align
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 1:30 PM ET #46

    Love the breakdowns Bo (very very useful)

    Not sure about the under play in Tampa tho.  I don't know how your model spat out a total of 7 using the stats of these two pitchers.  Probably passing on that one.    BOL today buddy
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    Love the breakdowns Bo (very very useful)

    Not sure about the under play in Tampa tho.  I don't know how your model spat out a total of 7 using the stats of these two pitchers.  Probably passing on that one.    BOL today buddy
     
    DRE-DAY
    DRE-DAY
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 1:37 PM ET #47

    gl bodio......YP.YUP
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    gl bodio......YP.YUP
     
    Digital_High
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 2:22 PM ET #48

    No Adam Dunn today for Chw. Dont know if anyone knew.
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    No Adam Dunn today for Chw. Dont know if anyone knew.
     
    JulesWinfield
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 3:23 PM ET #49

    you play the white sox more than any other team by far, you said they're not homer picks. do you bet them a lot b/c u know more about chisox than any other team? do you ever bet against them?
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    you play the white sox more than any other team by far, you said they're not homer picks. do you bet them a lot b/c u know more about chisox than any other team? do you ever bet against them?
     
     
    SportsFreak69
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2011 - 3:54 PM ET #50

    BOL 
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    BOL 
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