Has anyone ever used projected starting pitching and bullpen numbers to project totals for baseball games?
Read an article a while ago where you take starters overall era and double it and subtract last 3 starts era, which will give you a projected era for their next outing.
I'm gonna use this number as well as projected innings pitched per outing and come up with a pitchers projected stat line for the start. Then i'm gonna use their home/road and day/night splits to adjust the numbers and then come up with a statline for that start. (Example: Based on the formula above Justin Verlander is projected to go 6 2/3 innings and give up 2 ER tonight)
After coming up with that, i apply the bullpen averages to these numbers and come up with a total amount of runs that team will give up.
Just wondering if anyone does this for total betting, and am interested in some feedback on how people determine who they bet on for baseball totals.
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Has anyone ever used projected starting pitching and bullpen numbers to project totals for baseball games?
Read an article a while ago where you take starters overall era and double it and subtract last 3 starts era, which will give you a projected era for their next outing.
I'm gonna use this number as well as projected innings pitched per outing and come up with a pitchers projected stat line for the start. Then i'm gonna use their home/road and day/night splits to adjust the numbers and then come up with a statline for that start. (Example: Based on the formula above Justin Verlander is projected to go 6 2/3 innings and give up 2 ER tonight)
After coming up with that, i apply the bullpen averages to these numbers and come up with a total amount of runs that team will give up.
Just wondering if anyone does this for total betting, and am interested in some feedback on how people determine who they bet on for baseball totals.
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