I'm in big trouble already w/ Det and Tor, hows that?
Jackson's mental toughness pitching at Fenway is like china. Meanwhile Mitre is pitching like....well...Mitre. HR Jays! I'm back in the ballgame. .
Tigers starters --
I would be very careful with Verlander and Jackson both -- take a look at their pitch count. The Tigers pitched them to death in the last couple of months. It is starting to show.
Washburn, not so bad -- lucky for him, he was with Seattle. But then his first Tiger start was not so great either.
"A word to the wise sufficeth."
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Quote Originally Posted by LakeTahoeKid:
I'm in big trouble already w/ Det and Tor, hows that?
Jackson's mental toughness pitching at Fenway is like china. Meanwhile Mitre is pitching like....well...Mitre. HR Jays! I'm back in the ballgame. .
Tigers starters --
I would be very careful with Verlander and Jackson both -- take a look at their pitch count. The Tigers pitched them to death in the last couple of months. It is starting to show.
Washburn, not so bad -- lucky for him, he was with Seattle. But then his first Tiger start was not so great either.
I would be very careful with Verlander and Jackson both -- take a look at their pitch count. The Tigers pitched them to death in the last couple of months. It is starting to show.
Washburn, not so bad -- lucky for him, he was with Seattle. But then his first Tiger start was not so great either.
"A word to the wise sufficeth."
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Quote Originally Posted by -5innings:
Tigers starters --
I would be very careful with Verlander and Jackson both -- take a look at their pitch count. The Tigers pitched them to death in the last couple of months. It is starting to show.
Washburn, not so bad -- lucky for him, he was with Seattle. But then his first Tiger start was not so great either.
To which I would add, there's pitch counts, and then there's pitch counts --
I wouldn't necessarily worry so much if it were, you know, Tim Wakefield ---
But Verlander and Jackson, those guys throw hard... not a lot of messing around.
I went against Jackson vs. Boston in one other recent start (vs. Baltimore? someone) and won -- and didn't have the stones to take the Twins against Verlander, despite their decent record, but should have.
I remember watching Jackson's body language against the Indians about 2 weeks ago. He got off to a 2-0 lead, top of the first. Normally a pitcher kind of bounces out to the mound with that, throws strikes, has a little skip in his stride. He looked to me the whole time like he had been "sentenced to pitch," and was hoping to get paroled after 4-5 innings. (He did.)
Doesn't mean we can never go against them, but I agree, these guys are to be regarded carefully -- and I think Detroit as a whole is primed for a topple. (When the three teams atop the division all lose series to the Cleveland Indians, nobody is trying to win, except maybe, well, come to think of it, the Indians.)
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Quote Originally Posted by norseman67:
Tiger pitchers, &tc.
To which I would add, there's pitch counts, and then there's pitch counts --
I wouldn't necessarily worry so much if it were, you know, Tim Wakefield ---
But Verlander and Jackson, those guys throw hard... not a lot of messing around.
I went against Jackson vs. Boston in one other recent start (vs. Baltimore? someone) and won -- and didn't have the stones to take the Twins against Verlander, despite their decent record, but should have.
I remember watching Jackson's body language against the Indians about 2 weeks ago. He got off to a 2-0 lead, top of the first. Normally a pitcher kind of bounces out to the mound with that, throws strikes, has a little skip in his stride. He looked to me the whole time like he had been "sentenced to pitch," and was hoping to get paroled after 4-5 innings. (He did.)
Doesn't mean we can never go against them, but I agree, these guys are to be regarded carefully -- and I think Detroit as a whole is primed for a topple. (When the three teams atop the division all lose series to the Cleveland Indians, nobody is trying to win, except maybe, well, come to think of it, the Indians.)
1. Element -- thanks for the excellent Oakland pick. I was toying with that in my brain as a kind of bargain play in the wee hours, and when I saw you endorse it, that was enough for me. Also had Boston as a slight dog, and the Angels as a fairly sizeable home dog. 3-0 on dogs is very satisfying -- can make a man greedy. But then greed is good again... isn't it? I can never keep track of the Zeitgeist.
2. Our friend Goalline Bob -- no dramatic news but, I gather, steady albeit slow improvement. I'll let you know as soon as there's anything dramatic, hopefully involving 2-3 nurses and many pieces of very expensive hospital equipment.
Houston-Florida -- I like the under for several reasons. 1. Oswalt's pretty good (but add a run for his coming off an injury). 2. Volstad's improved, and pitched excellently against a lineup from Florida with most of the current players. But not so much as to drive the F5 line way low -- think it's 4 1/2... very makeable. 3. Houston can't hit a lick lately.
Lannan-Nats -- I've warned everyone he has trouble on the road... I'm sure everyone listened (not.) So why am I considering him on the road against Atlanta? 1. He's pitched there several times before now, and seems to improve as he gets to know the place. 2. The Nationals, along with the Indians, are not only kicking the snot out of the ball, but doing it pretty steadily. 3. He's +195 in a game that, to me, looks coin-tossy. Braves at home, but just coming home. Hanson got off to a great start and is going to be great, but if you look at his recent 4-5 starts, ehhh -- not that great at all.
Even as a Twins fan, I will probably stay off Minnesota. They've had trouble with KC, especially, for whatever reason, in the Metrodome. Blackburn will probably win the F5 in game one, but at -200, you get little out of it. I can't get that excited about the risk-reward.
Reds F5 -- We don't know much about Lehr. We know Wellemeyer stinks. I don't understand the Reds offense, except I know they score better on the road. I don't understand the Cardinals offense, except it seems unable to score in the F5 (hence, I successfully took the Pirates in all 3 of their recent meetings, winning two.) They seem to need to hit around a couple times, especially against a right-hander,
Anyway, it's a decent dog shot, though I don't feel like +130 is giving much value considering the two teams... Element?
Chamberlain-NYY looks easy, and should be. I would do it with -0.5. Joba's gotten steadily better this year, and all the NYY's have learned to pitch in that stadium.
Wolf-LAD -- liking them a tad, despite weak Dodger sticks, considering incredibly emaciatedly kwashiorker-esquely weak sticks of Giants against left-handers, of which Wolf is a halfway decent one. Don't think the under at 4.5 is bad either.
Rockies-Cook-or-whomever -- over Ohlendorf and Pirates on the road. Likely to be a value given uncertain condition of Cook. I'll snap it up.
Nippert-Texas over Cleveland -- I sort of like this guy, and the way Texas abuses LHP... and figure even the Tribe (my pet team of late -- Jeremy Sowers for Cy Young Award !) is subject to the law of gravity.
Mariners-Fister -- Mariners have suddenly started to score, thanks to Jack Wilson et al, and I usually bet against the White Sox any time they face a guy they've not seen before. Then too, Danks has never beaten Seattle (yah, I know, lots of changeover... but put it this way, he's never beaten Ichiro. Jose Lopez has 10 career ABs vs. Danks, with 6 hits -- it means something.) Sounds weird but I think the Mariners may be a value dog at home today.
Angels-Devil Rays over -- it seems to easy, doesn't it? I can't picture this game coming in at less than 7-6 or so, a missed extra point making the difference, and maybe 4-3 or 3-3 after the F5, either of which covers. Ever since I softly question whether Vlady Guerrero's return to the lineup might not be the greatest thing for the Angels offense, he's been hitting multiple walk-off home runs per inning, while stealing bases, and even leading the team in putouts... as a DH ! Time for me to get back on the Angels-game-uber-alles bandwagon, I guess.
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Looking back, a couple things:
1. Element -- thanks for the excellent Oakland pick. I was toying with that in my brain as a kind of bargain play in the wee hours, and when I saw you endorse it, that was enough for me. Also had Boston as a slight dog, and the Angels as a fairly sizeable home dog. 3-0 on dogs is very satisfying -- can make a man greedy. But then greed is good again... isn't it? I can never keep track of the Zeitgeist.
2. Our friend Goalline Bob -- no dramatic news but, I gather, steady albeit slow improvement. I'll let you know as soon as there's anything dramatic, hopefully involving 2-3 nurses and many pieces of very expensive hospital equipment.
Houston-Florida -- I like the under for several reasons. 1. Oswalt's pretty good (but add a run for his coming off an injury). 2. Volstad's improved, and pitched excellently against a lineup from Florida with most of the current players. But not so much as to drive the F5 line way low -- think it's 4 1/2... very makeable. 3. Houston can't hit a lick lately.
Lannan-Nats -- I've warned everyone he has trouble on the road... I'm sure everyone listened (not.) So why am I considering him on the road against Atlanta? 1. He's pitched there several times before now, and seems to improve as he gets to know the place. 2. The Nationals, along with the Indians, are not only kicking the snot out of the ball, but doing it pretty steadily. 3. He's +195 in a game that, to me, looks coin-tossy. Braves at home, but just coming home. Hanson got off to a great start and is going to be great, but if you look at his recent 4-5 starts, ehhh -- not that great at all.
Even as a Twins fan, I will probably stay off Minnesota. They've had trouble with KC, especially, for whatever reason, in the Metrodome. Blackburn will probably win the F5 in game one, but at -200, you get little out of it. I can't get that excited about the risk-reward.
Reds F5 -- We don't know much about Lehr. We know Wellemeyer stinks. I don't understand the Reds offense, except I know they score better on the road. I don't understand the Cardinals offense, except it seems unable to score in the F5 (hence, I successfully took the Pirates in all 3 of their recent meetings, winning two.) They seem to need to hit around a couple times, especially against a right-hander,
Anyway, it's a decent dog shot, though I don't feel like +130 is giving much value considering the two teams... Element?
Chamberlain-NYY looks easy, and should be. I would do it with -0.5. Joba's gotten steadily better this year, and all the NYY's have learned to pitch in that stadium.
Wolf-LAD -- liking them a tad, despite weak Dodger sticks, considering incredibly emaciatedly kwashiorker-esquely weak sticks of Giants against left-handers, of which Wolf is a halfway decent one. Don't think the under at 4.5 is bad either.
Rockies-Cook-or-whomever -- over Ohlendorf and Pirates on the road. Likely to be a value given uncertain condition of Cook. I'll snap it up.
Nippert-Texas over Cleveland -- I sort of like this guy, and the way Texas abuses LHP... and figure even the Tribe (my pet team of late -- Jeremy Sowers for Cy Young Award !) is subject to the law of gravity.
Mariners-Fister -- Mariners have suddenly started to score, thanks to Jack Wilson et al, and I usually bet against the White Sox any time they face a guy they've not seen before. Then too, Danks has never beaten Seattle (yah, I know, lots of changeover... but put it this way, he's never beaten Ichiro. Jose Lopez has 10 career ABs vs. Danks, with 6 hits -- it means something.) Sounds weird but I think the Mariners may be a value dog at home today.
Angels-Devil Rays over -- it seems to easy, doesn't it? I can't picture this game coming in at less than 7-6 or so, a missed extra point making the difference, and maybe 4-3 or 3-3 after the F5, either of which covers. Ever since I softly question whether Vlady Guerrero's return to the lineup might not be the greatest thing for the Angels offense, he's been hitting multiple walk-off home runs per inning, while stealing bases, and even leading the team in putouts... as a DH ! Time for me to get back on the Angels-game-uber-alles bandwagon, I guess.
2. Our friend Goalline Bob
-- no dramatic news but, I gather, steady albeit slow improvement.
I'll let you know as soon as there's anything dramatic, hopefully
involving 2-3 nurses and many pieces of very expensive hospital
equipment.
Tell G-Bob....slow and steady?
Who cares.
Just as long as he's cool with the nurses
I know hospital nurses (I've been there and I mean that in the most respectful way) and they are the greatest, if you respect them.
And play with them!
So Bob, start playing!
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2. Our friend Goalline Bob
-- no dramatic news but, I gather, steady albeit slow improvement.
I'll let you know as soon as there's anything dramatic, hopefully
involving 2-3 nurses and many pieces of very expensive hospital
equipment.
Tell G-Bob....slow and steady?
Who cares.
Just as long as he's cool with the nurses
I know hospital nurses (I've been there and I mean that in the most respectful way) and they are the greatest, if you respect them.
KEY, you usually have a pretty good read on the METS, isn't that line off? Kinda a 50/50 game but ZONA a 2:1 fav. METS like playing in AZ, Livan with quality #'s in the past vs AZ. worth a shot on the METS?
0
KEY, you usually have a pretty good read on the METS, isn't that line off? Kinda a 50/50 game but ZONA a 2:1 fav. METS like playing in AZ, Livan with quality #'s in the past vs AZ. worth a shot on the METS?
Ron, I agree Wright being out makes a difference, but not THAT much. It's still too high. I don't have that game pegged but the Mutts are maybe worthy of a small play.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Ron, I agree Wright being out makes a difference, but not THAT much. It's still too high. I don't have that game pegged but the Mutts are maybe worthy of a small play.
I am typing this up about 7 AM. I have no idea when I will post it because Joe Public is almost sure to drive the line up and present a better value, and I am not posting it until I think it has peaked. I have taken the cash twice with Richard since he joined the Padres and in my last post I boldly stated the White Sox may rue the day they let this guy go for the temporary rental of Jake Peavy. That remains to be seen, but the fact is that at the moment Richard is in better form than Looper, a declining, overvalued starter. Richard not only shows better current form but has faced the Brewers twice this season and in 10.2 innings has surrendered only 6 hits and 1 earned run. Richard is a finesse pitcher that is not going to dazzle you with strikeouts and gain fame by his number of appearances on Sports Center. When he is at his best he keeps the ball down and lets his infielders pick up the grounders and throw guys out. Ha has done an outstanding job in that regard since joining the Padres, with a 2:1 ratio vs the Brewers and 2.67:1 vs the Mets. It is also perceived that the Brewers are a pretty fair lefty hitting team and a pretty good homer as well. But the truth is the Brewers have sunk to middle of the road status vs lefties and continue to decline, at 3-6-1 and 2.7 rp5ig their last 10 vs lefty, while the Padres are 6-4 and 3.3 rp5ig vs righty. Just because someone is sure to mention the H-A thing I want them to know I didn’t ignore it. The Padres are 5-5 their last 10 on the road and the Brewers are 4-6 their last 10 at home, and anything beyond that is ancient history. The Brewers are 14-9 overall and 7-5 at home when Looper takes the ball, so perhaps there is a little home field advantage there, but not nearly what Joe Public perceives it to be. It is a long season. All players and teams will have their up and down cycles, but this is the time to capitalize on teams perceived as “bad” vs teams that are perceived as “good” regardless of what Joe Public thinks. NOTE: I expected Joe Public to jump the Brewers, but Wise Guy has pounded the Padres and I think I better get it up (so to speak, nothing subliminal there!).
Nationals +164 Lannan / Hanson
You can go with a streak and be right an unlimited number of times or go against it and be right only once. Who is to say the Nats can’t take their current streak on the road with them? They must be feeling pretty good about their prospects and an upbeat attitude goes a long way in sports. Granted the Braves are coming home from a sweep of the Dodgers in LA, but there could be a little letdown after a highly successful 5-2 road trip and it may also be hard to believe the Nats are any more of a threat than they were a month ago when the Braves split at Washington 2-2. They lost to Lannan on that trip but are one up on him for the year at 2-1, but both losses were tough low scoring affairs and Lannan was not receiving the run support then that he is now. The Nats have won 3 of his last 4 starts and I think it is time both he and they took their show on the road.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Padres +126 Richard / Looper
I am typing this up about 7 AM. I have no idea when I will post it because Joe Public is almost sure to drive the line up and present a better value, and I am not posting it until I think it has peaked. I have taken the cash twice with Richard since he joined the Padres and in my last post I boldly stated the White Sox may rue the day they let this guy go for the temporary rental of Jake Peavy. That remains to be seen, but the fact is that at the moment Richard is in better form than Looper, a declining, overvalued starter. Richard not only shows better current form but has faced the Brewers twice this season and in 10.2 innings has surrendered only 6 hits and 1 earned run. Richard is a finesse pitcher that is not going to dazzle you with strikeouts and gain fame by his number of appearances on Sports Center. When he is at his best he keeps the ball down and lets his infielders pick up the grounders and throw guys out. Ha has done an outstanding job in that regard since joining the Padres, with a 2:1 ratio vs the Brewers and 2.67:1 vs the Mets. It is also perceived that the Brewers are a pretty fair lefty hitting team and a pretty good homer as well. But the truth is the Brewers have sunk to middle of the road status vs lefties and continue to decline, at 3-6-1 and 2.7 rp5ig their last 10 vs lefty, while the Padres are 6-4 and 3.3 rp5ig vs righty. Just because someone is sure to mention the H-A thing I want them to know I didn’t ignore it. The Padres are 5-5 their last 10 on the road and the Brewers are 4-6 their last 10 at home, and anything beyond that is ancient history. The Brewers are 14-9 overall and 7-5 at home when Looper takes the ball, so perhaps there is a little home field advantage there, but not nearly what Joe Public perceives it to be. It is a long season. All players and teams will have their up and down cycles, but this is the time to capitalize on teams perceived as “bad” vs teams that are perceived as “good” regardless of what Joe Public thinks. NOTE: I expected Joe Public to jump the Brewers, but Wise Guy has pounded the Padres and I think I better get it up (so to speak, nothing subliminal there!).
Nationals +164 Lannan / Hanson
You can go with a streak and be right an unlimited number of times or go against it and be right only once. Who is to say the Nats can’t take their current streak on the road with them? They must be feeling pretty good about their prospects and an upbeat attitude goes a long way in sports. Granted the Braves are coming home from a sweep of the Dodgers in LA, but there could be a little letdown after a highly successful 5-2 road trip and it may also be hard to believe the Nats are any more of a threat than they were a month ago when the Braves split at Washington 2-2. They lost to Lannan on that trip but are one up on him for the year at 2-1, but both losses were tough low scoring affairs and Lannan was not receiving the run support then that he is now. The Nats have won 3 of his last 4 starts and I think it is time both he and they took their show on the road.
I am typing this up about 7 AM. I have no idea when I will post it because Joe Public is almost sure to drive the line up and present a better value, and I am not posting it until I think it has peaked. I have taken the cash twice with Richard since he joined the Padres and in my last post I boldly stated the White Sox may rue the day they let this guy go for the temporary rental of Jake Peavy. That remains to be seen, but the fact is that at the moment Richard is in better form than Looper, a declining, overvalued starter. Richard not only shows better current form but has faced the Brewers twice this season and in 10.2 innings has surrendered only 6 hits and 1 earned run. Richard is a finesse pitcher that is not going to dazzle you with strikeouts and gain fame by his number of appearances on Sports Center. When he is at his best he keeps the ball down and lets his infielders pick up the grounders and throw guys out. Ha has done an outstanding job in that regard since joining the Padres, with a 2:1 ratio vs the Brewers and 2.67:1 vs the Mets. It is also perceived that the Brewers are a pretty fair lefty hitting team and a pretty good homer as well. But the truth is the Brewers have sunk to middle of the road status vs lefties and continue to decline, at 3-6-1 and 2.7 rp5ig their last 10 vs lefty, while the Padres are 6-4 and 3.3 rp5ig vs righty. Just because someone is sure to mention the H-A thing I want them to know I didn’t ignore it. The Padres are 5-5 their last 10 on the road and the Brewers are 4-6 their last 10 at home, and anything beyond that is ancient history. The Brewers are 14-9 overall and 7-5 at home when Looper takes the ball, so perhaps there is a little home field advantage there, but not nearly what Joe Public perceives it to be. It is a long season. All players and teams will have their up and down cycles, but this is the time to capitalize on teams perceived as “bad” vs teams that are perceived as “good” regardless of what Joe Public thinks. NOTE: I expected Joe Public to jump the Brewers, but Wise Guy has pounded the Padres and I think I better get it up (so to speak, nothing subliminal there!).
Nationals +164 Lannan / Hanson
You can go with a streak and be right an unlimited number of times or go against it and be right only once. Who is to say the Nats can’t take their current streak on the road with them? They must be feeling pretty good about their prospects and an upbeat attitude goes a long way in sports. Granted the Braves are coming home from a sweep of the Dodgers in LA, but there could be a little letdown after a highly successful 5-2 road trip and it may also be hard to believe the Nats are any more of a threat than they were a month ago when the Braves split at Washington 2-2. They lost to Lannan on that trip but are one up on him for the year at 2-1, but both losses were tough low scoring affairs and Lannan was not receiving the run support then that he is now. The Nats have won 3 of his last 4 starts and I think it is time both he and they took their show on the road.
You won't catch me laughing at the Padres. They're now 44-51 with Eckstein in the lineup, including 3-4 straight losses when he first returned from injury and was tuning up. Virtually a .500 team, despite the trades, despite Peavy hurt all year, &tc.
I like the fact that Richard has done well vs. the Brewers, including in Milwaukee, and that Looper is hit well by several current Padres (Eckstein 1.000, Adrian Gonzalez .400 with 2 HR in 15 AB, Kyle Blanks .500, Chase Headley .400, Tony Gwynn .286, Will Venable .333, &tc.),
Plus I think they're like that last team to beat the mighty Washington Nationals.
Speaking of the Nats, it's also worth noting that Lannan was able to win in Atlanta last July -- this matters to me because, in combination with his other halfway-decent starts against them, they don't change the stadium dimensions every 10 games, ;-). And for a young pitcher -- well, he has some confidence, there's nothing in his head that says he can't win there. Indeed, he beat the Braves (and Hanson) last time out at home... though I forget what he did in the F5.
With Lannan's home ERA of 2.0, and road ERA of 5.6 -- inclueding a recent beating at Pittsburgh -- and considering it still is the Nationals on the road, I'm unlikely to pound it. But I think it's worth something. The flip side of a 20-game win streak, if it becomes that, is if you miss one win, there's still a lot of others you can catch.
Still like the JobaYanks minus the half, though I note again that the Yankees have not been getting to guys early (a la the Cardinals.) I didn't watch every minute of the Boston series, but think you lost a couple wins by pushing in the F5, whereas taking them for 9 innings you did better. I don't say this is always one way or the other, but with some teams, the "bullpen risk" is actually "bullpen opportunity" -- and "bat warmup opportunity." Worth considering, especially given the team's superior wlp over 9 innings as compared to 5.
0
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Padres +126 Richard / Looper
I am typing this up about 7 AM. I have no idea when I will post it because Joe Public is almost sure to drive the line up and present a better value, and I am not posting it until I think it has peaked. I have taken the cash twice with Richard since he joined the Padres and in my last post I boldly stated the White Sox may rue the day they let this guy go for the temporary rental of Jake Peavy. That remains to be seen, but the fact is that at the moment Richard is in better form than Looper, a declining, overvalued starter. Richard not only shows better current form but has faced the Brewers twice this season and in 10.2 innings has surrendered only 6 hits and 1 earned run. Richard is a finesse pitcher that is not going to dazzle you with strikeouts and gain fame by his number of appearances on Sports Center. When he is at his best he keeps the ball down and lets his infielders pick up the grounders and throw guys out. Ha has done an outstanding job in that regard since joining the Padres, with a 2:1 ratio vs the Brewers and 2.67:1 vs the Mets. It is also perceived that the Brewers are a pretty fair lefty hitting team and a pretty good homer as well. But the truth is the Brewers have sunk to middle of the road status vs lefties and continue to decline, at 3-6-1 and 2.7 rp5ig their last 10 vs lefty, while the Padres are 6-4 and 3.3 rp5ig vs righty. Just because someone is sure to mention the H-A thing I want them to know I didn’t ignore it. The Padres are 5-5 their last 10 on the road and the Brewers are 4-6 their last 10 at home, and anything beyond that is ancient history. The Brewers are 14-9 overall and 7-5 at home when Looper takes the ball, so perhaps there is a little home field advantage there, but not nearly what Joe Public perceives it to be. It is a long season. All players and teams will have their up and down cycles, but this is the time to capitalize on teams perceived as “bad” vs teams that are perceived as “good” regardless of what Joe Public thinks. NOTE: I expected Joe Public to jump the Brewers, but Wise Guy has pounded the Padres and I think I better get it up (so to speak, nothing subliminal there!).
Nationals +164 Lannan / Hanson
You can go with a streak and be right an unlimited number of times or go against it and be right only once. Who is to say the Nats can’t take their current streak on the road with them? They must be feeling pretty good about their prospects and an upbeat attitude goes a long way in sports. Granted the Braves are coming home from a sweep of the Dodgers in LA, but there could be a little letdown after a highly successful 5-2 road trip and it may also be hard to believe the Nats are any more of a threat than they were a month ago when the Braves split at Washington 2-2. They lost to Lannan on that trip but are one up on him for the year at 2-1, but both losses were tough low scoring affairs and Lannan was not receiving the run support then that he is now. The Nats have won 3 of his last 4 starts and I think it is time both he and they took their show on the road.
You won't catch me laughing at the Padres. They're now 44-51 with Eckstein in the lineup, including 3-4 straight losses when he first returned from injury and was tuning up. Virtually a .500 team, despite the trades, despite Peavy hurt all year, &tc.
I like the fact that Richard has done well vs. the Brewers, including in Milwaukee, and that Looper is hit well by several current Padres (Eckstein 1.000, Adrian Gonzalez .400 with 2 HR in 15 AB, Kyle Blanks .500, Chase Headley .400, Tony Gwynn .286, Will Venable .333, &tc.),
Plus I think they're like that last team to beat the mighty Washington Nationals.
Speaking of the Nats, it's also worth noting that Lannan was able to win in Atlanta last July -- this matters to me because, in combination with his other halfway-decent starts against them, they don't change the stadium dimensions every 10 games, ;-). And for a young pitcher -- well, he has some confidence, there's nothing in his head that says he can't win there. Indeed, he beat the Braves (and Hanson) last time out at home... though I forget what he did in the F5.
With Lannan's home ERA of 2.0, and road ERA of 5.6 -- inclueding a recent beating at Pittsburgh -- and considering it still is the Nationals on the road, I'm unlikely to pound it. But I think it's worth something. The flip side of a 20-game win streak, if it becomes that, is if you miss one win, there's still a lot of others you can catch.
Still like the JobaYanks minus the half, though I note again that the Yankees have not been getting to guys early (a la the Cardinals.) I didn't watch every minute of the Boston series, but think you lost a couple wins by pushing in the F5, whereas taking them for 9 innings you did better. I don't say this is always one way or the other, but with some teams, the "bullpen risk" is actually "bullpen opportunity" -- and "bat warmup opportunity." Worth considering, especially given the team's superior wlp over 9 innings as compared to 5.
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