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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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Posted: #951

Quote Originally Posted by Adram805:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Adram805: You can add Kaufee to that list although he is a bit cold at the moment and doesn’t pick every single day. His perspective and insight is as good as gets. Sounds good. Thanks.

  Of course it goes without saying you are definitely on that list FUBAH. I come in your thread everyday and love all the information you provide. The quality and dedication is unmatched here. It’s much appreciated and keep up the good work man.

i will second this  an_clap

 

 

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #952

@fubah2

Yeah, great call on the Tigers.  I would not have taken them without your recommendation.   an_cheers

 
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Posted: #953

Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

@fubah2 Yeah, great call on the Tigers.  I would not have taken them without your recommendation.

Really?!   Well then glad I was of some help! an_cheers

 

Tuesday is another day.........later dudes

 
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Posted: #954

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks!

I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them.  My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them. 

Today, for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate...

an_light Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:

     Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs  ....so under 8 ??

     Astros game ....suggests  7.3 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line??

     Rockies game ....suggests  9.6 net runs  ....so under 11 alt-line??

     Angels game ....suggests  7.5 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line??

Had I bet those UNDERS, I would have gone 1 - 3, with big juice losses! an_speechless  So the the run of UNDERS which my handicapping sheets have circled as decent plays SINCE I QUIT BETTING THEM, drops to 20 winners vs 12 losers.....still good, but I won't bet them. HOWEVER, if I was tempted, then today's KC/Cleveland game looks very tempting at the alt-line of 9 total (not 8.5 nor 8.0!) Before I QUIT betting unders, an UNDER 9.0 here would likely get my *BEST BET tag! A great Sp vs a decent SP backed by the BEST bullpen; neither team scary when batting v righties! Breeze inward.....BUT there's an issue: LUGO for KC, as great as he is, is riding a very tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK....IF he implodes, the chances of losing an under 9 increase significantly.... an_getaway

 
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Posted: #955

TUESDAY, June 04 ...

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #956

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

RESULTS Monday, June 03:


 angry   Cards +158 (pinnacle)  .... "value bet"  50/50 coin-flipper!!

W  Tiggers -105 (pinnacle)  ... I have them for almost a one run edge due to SP!

Schplitt 1 - 1  ...nothing gained, nothing lost

 
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Posted: #957

@fubah2

 I am going to try Royals @ Guardians, Under 8.5, -105

 
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Posted: #958

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks! an_burningbag

I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them.  My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 20- 12 as of Monday since I QUIT betting them. 

Tuesday, for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate...

an_light Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 20 - 12 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:

     Cleveland game....suggest 7.0 net runs  ....so under 9.0 ??

     Pirates game ....suggests  7.0 net runs  ....so under 8.0 ??

     Nationals game ....suggests  7.9 net runs  ....so under 9.0 alt-line ??

     BoSox game ....suggests  7.2 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line ??

     Astros game ....suggests  7.8 net runs  ....so under 9 ??

     Rockies game ....suggests  9.1 net runs  ....so under 11 alt-line??

 

 
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Posted: #959

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

VALUE BETS?  

I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper!) 

Monday's value bet on Cardinals failed.

A couple of dead-heat coinflippers TODAY would normally qualify: St.Louis and Oakland....both getting good PLUS MONEY in a coin-flip game....EXCEPT: both are starting relievers on the mound.an_nailbiter UNCERTAINTY surrounds that!!!  I don't need the frickn stress so I'm laying off those coin-flips and looking for other betting opportunities instead.

 

 
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Posted: #960

an_police an_blowhorn WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

                            an_light  LUGO,  Royals

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #961

an_police an_blowhorn WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 11-game HOT STREAK, an_speechless

  WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

                            an_light WILLIAMS,  Nats

 

 

 
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Posted: #962

an_police an_blowhorn WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 12-game HOT STREAK, an_speechless

  WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

                            an_light BURNES,  Orioles

 

 
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Posted: #963

Beginning to look like I may only have one bet today...

 
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Posted: #964

like Brewers today Fubah, they have an outstanding results at Phil, thoughts! 

 I got your Tigers  yesterday , appreciate it

 

What is the one you are liking today?

clover

 
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Posted: #965

Quote Originally Posted by VICRRC:

like Brewers today Fubah, they have an outstanding results at Phil, thoughts!   

I got your Tigers  yesterday , appreciate it  

What is the one you are liking today?

@VICRRC

 I love a good Brewsky!   I think they will get some momentum going today v. the Phillies....they are certainly no pushover like the WhiteSox....Phillies had better be ready!   I just wish the Brewskys bats were better against lefty starters, then I would likely bet them.  For now I will pass but watch with interest.   What's your feeling?

 

I am leaning toward my forlorn CUBBIES today, possibly the series...... Imanaga is terrific, and the best part is he just recently got the inevitable "BAD outing" out of the way and should resume another streak, especially facing the offensively challenged WhiteSox. 

While anything can happen, including FLUKES, on any given day, the odds are the WhiteSox are most likely to be held to 3 or fewer runs.... CUBBIES facing a very mediocre FLEXEN should top that easily....

But the price is a VERY HEAVY ML... an_nailbiter  ....and if a fluke does happen, poof, there goes the equivalent of 3units worth of good money ...

Remember, these WhiteSox very unexpectedly upset CLEVELAND for 3 consecutive games! an_getaway

 

 

I wanted YANKEES but the ML moved quickly out of my range for what I have pegged as a +1.5 run edge.  One might suggest taking the RL then.....but I disfavor that on home teams, due to often not getting the final  AB in a close 1 run winner....or x-innings.

 
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Posted: #966

Good insight

Talking about the stats of their matchups. They lost 3-1 so my pick IS +1,5 Brew

 
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Posted: #967

@fubah2

 I’m done betting the under myself. Good luck buddy! Always must read. cloveran_cheers

 
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Posted: #968

@fubah2

I think I have too many bets out today.  There are 8: Nationals +107 avg., Yankees -167 avg., Rockies +121, Cardinals +127, Braves -165, Padres -108, Orioles -150

Royals @ Guardians  Under 8.5  -105

Do any of these look particularly good or bad to you?

 
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Posted: #969

@fubah2

 ok, enough of this crap, I'm betting against both these pitchers today...and the others coming up...I believe I'll come out ahead

Thanks..

 

P.S don't trust Glasgow at home tonight, and the Pirates have done well there and out west for years, they swept the Dodgers last year....I'll be fading away

 
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Posted: #970

Yeeshh. Take a nap; wake up and.... Pitcher changes!  angry

 
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Posted: #971

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Yeeshh. Take a nap; wake up and.... Pitcher changes!
Williams and his 11 game HOT STREAK (posted earlier) is a non-issue now that they placed him on the DL.....Not enough time for me to evaluate this HERZ lefty from AAA and the game is underway.....

 

 

And I thought REA was starting for  Bewskys.... instead they start Koenig AGAIN confused

 

 
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Posted: #972

For some reason, the TIGGERS pulled the good bat of URSHELA (.313 v. righties!!!) out of their lineup and put in some callup from Toeldo... Tiggers are already without their BEST bat, CARPENTER!!   WTF? confused

 

I already had TEXAS with a miniscule edge (but not enough to justify a bet) but now that edge has increased just enough:

from pinnacle

TEXAS -108 

 
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Posted: #973

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Tuesday, for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate...

an_light Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 20 - 12 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:

     Cleveland game....suggest 7.0 net runs  ....so under 9.0 ??

     Pirates game ....suggests  7.0 net runs  ....so under 8.0 ??

VOID*  Nationals game ....suggests  7.9 net runs  ....so under 9.0 alt-line ??

     BoSox game ....suggests  7.2 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line ??

     Astros game ....suggests  7.8 net runs  ....so under 9 ??

     Rockies game ....suggests  9.1 net runs  ....so under 11 alt-line??

The NATS game under (just for tracking only) is VOID due to P/C

But now added (for tracking only!) is the CUBS game (8.0 runs?? with wind drifting slightly in)  if 10.0 is selected on the alt-total

 
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Posted: #974

McKenzie is a more or less mediocre starter for CLEVELAND, but him imploding today was not expected, esp after coming off 2 weak outings.....a rebound was more likely than a 3rd consecutive beatdown, esp to a KC team that is itself only mediocre v. righties   angry

 

If he stays in for another inning, Cleveland going down; and the under is going bust in a hurry....

 
 
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Posted: #975

Famous last words?? "It looks like a watered down and weak batting lineup tonight for the beleagured and offense-challenged WhiteSox tonight against their crosstown rivals, facing one of the BEST lefties in the gaame!"

 

an_lightThis may come back to haunt me an_nailbiter but the numbers are there in my capping sheets ....so I am going with it DESPITE my hesitancy with HUGE FAVS nowadays....

CUBBIES -279  (pinnacle)

 

PS, I don't like RL favs when home teams....

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