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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

    «First Previous 373839 ... 361362363 Next Last»
    fubah2
    PUSSYGALORE333
    Premian
    h_keller
    Coloneljim
    ...
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    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 2, 2024 - 5:05 PM ET #901

    Sunday, June 02:

    W  Twinkies +135 (pinnacle)   ....value bet in a coin-flipper!
    W  Tiggers +138 (pinnacle)    ....value bet in a coin-flipper!
     L    Orioles -125 (pinnacle)
    W  Brewskys game ov 7 -146           *BB
     L    LIVE HEDGE BET: BoSox -130

     

    = 3 - 2   +1.18u   an_2drinks  (1 - 0 *BB)

     

    Reply

    Sunday, June 02:

    W  Twinkies +135 (pinnacle)   ....value bet in a coin-flipper!
    W  Tiggers +138 (pinnacle)    ....value bet in a coin-flipper!
     L    Orioles -125 (pinnacle)
    W  Brewskys game ov 7 -146           *BB
     L    LIVE HEDGE BET: BoSox -130

     

    = 3 - 2   +1.18u   an_2drinks  (1 - 0 *BB)

     

     
    PUSSYGALORE333
    PUSSYGALORE333
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    Posted: Jun. 2, 2024 - 5:34 PM ET #902

    an_cheers

    goldfinger 1964
    Reply

    an_cheers

     
    Premian
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    Posted: Jun. 2, 2024 - 7:34 PM ET #903

    @fubah2

    Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees.  Also won with the Mariners.  Lost with the Orioles.

    So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times.  I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit.  (22.65 Units remaining).

    I have learned quite a bit from your posts.  As always, Good luck with all your Picks.  thumbs_up  clover

     

    Reply

    @fubah2

    Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees.  Also won with the Mariners.  Lost with the Orioles.

    So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times.  I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit.  (22.65 Units remaining).

    I have learned quite a bit from your posts.  As always, Good luck with all your Picks.  thumbs_up  clover

     

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 4:16 AM ET #904

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    @fubah2 Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees.  Also won with the Mariners.  Lost with the Orioles. So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times.  I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit.  (22.65 Units remaining). I have learned quite a bit from your posts.  As always, Good luck with all your Picks.

    Hey, good work there! an_clap

    Step by step you can get it all back if you are really patient. peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    @fubah2 Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees.  Also won with the Mariners.  Lost with the Orioles. So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times.  I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit.  (22.65 Units remaining). I have learned quite a bit from your posts.  As always, Good luck with all your Picks.

    Hey, good work there! an_clap

    Step by step you can get it all back if you are really patient. peace_5

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 4:17 AM ET #905

    Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:

    an_cheers

    May you earn some more profits this week! an_cheers

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:

    an_cheers

    May you earn some more profits this week! an_cheers

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 4:23 AM ET #906

    Breakdown of my PRE-GAME posted bets: (pushes/props/LIVE bets not listed)


    • FAVS up to -169, posted pre-game:  44 - 26  +10.33u
    • BIG FAVS -170+, posted pre-game:   16 - 9    - 0.80u


    • ML dogs posted pre-game:   31 - 22    +18.28u


    • Totals, Unders posted pre-game:  6 - 9    - 5.49u    an_smash


    • Totals, OVERS posted pre-game: 30 - 13 +13.13u


    • Runlines, -1.5 FAVS, posted pre-game:  0 - 1  -1.00u
    • Runlines, +1.5 dogs, posted pre-game: 2 - 0  +2.00u


    • 3-game SERIES bets:    4 - 2   +1.50u


    From over 250+ bets, only 10 were posted PRE-GAME with juice OVER -200:
          7 wins: -322 -270 -228 -222 -226 -213 -213 (+7.00u)
         3 losers: -214 -210 -204 (-6.28u)

    Reply

    Breakdown of my PRE-GAME posted bets: (pushes/props/LIVE bets not listed)


    • FAVS up to -169, posted pre-game:  44 - 26  +10.33u
    • BIG FAVS -170+, posted pre-game:   16 - 9    - 0.80u


    • ML dogs posted pre-game:   31 - 22    +18.28u


    • Totals, Unders posted pre-game:  6 - 9    - 5.49u    an_smash


    • Totals, OVERS posted pre-game: 30 - 13 +13.13u


    • Runlines, -1.5 FAVS, posted pre-game:  0 - 1  -1.00u
    • Runlines, +1.5 dogs, posted pre-game: 2 - 0  +2.00u


    • 3-game SERIES bets:    4 - 2   +1.50u


    From over 250+ bets, only 10 were posted PRE-GAME with juice OVER -200:
          7 wins: -322 -270 -228 -222 -226 -213 -213 (+7.00u)
         3 losers: -214 -210 -204 (-6.28u)

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 4:27 AM ET #907

    Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

    BoL with your bets this week!! peace_5 thumbs_up

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

    BoL with your bets this week!! peace_5 thumbs_up

     
    h_keller
    h_keller
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    Posts: 11
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 7:06 AM ET #908

    Thanks for all the informative posts, fubah2. I've really gained a lot of insight into MLB betting from this thread and the picks have been a nice bonus. Just wanted to share my appreciation and Happy monday.

    Reply

    Thanks for all the informative posts, fubah2. I've really gained a lot of insight into MLB betting from this thread and the picks have been a nice bonus. Just wanted to share my appreciation and Happy monday.

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 8:26 AM ET #909

    VALUE BETS?

     

    I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper!) 

    an_light Monday, I have already bet these coin-flippers:

                           St.Louis +158 (pinnacle)

     

    The "value" makes sense, assuming I have the games capped well.

    No guarantees of winning.....but I like the value here!

    Reply

    VALUE BETS?

     

    I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper!) 

    an_light Monday, I have already bet these coin-flippers:

                           St.Louis +158 (pinnacle)

     

    The "value" makes sense, assuming I have the games capped well.

    No guarantees of winning.....but I like the value here!

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 8:48 AM ET #910

    Monday, June 03:


    Cards +158 (pinnacle)  .... "value bet"  50/50 coin-flipper!!

    Tiggers -105 (pinnacle)  ... I have them for almost a one run edge due to SP

    Reply

    Monday, June 03:


    Cards +158 (pinnacle)  .... "value bet"  50/50 coin-flipper!!

    Tiggers -105 (pinnacle)  ... I have them for almost a one run edge due to SP

     
    Premian
    Premian
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    Posts: 2062
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 8:50 AM ET #911

    @fubah2

     I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150.  It might go higher, and I might bet it again.

    Go Cardinals  an_horse  clover

    I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128.  Got them too soon as far as the lines go.

    Reply

    @fubah2

     I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150.  It might go higher, and I might bet it again.

    Go Cardinals  an_horse  clover

    I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128.  Got them too soon as far as the lines go.

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 9:03 AM ET #912

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    @fubah2  I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150.  It might go higher, and I might bet it again. Go Cardinals     I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128.  Got them too soon as far as the lines go.
    That's good, imo. In fact I would have played this "value" bet as low as +120 if that was what was offered (not lower) because I actually have the Cards not just even, but a very small edge overall.....so this one is along similar chances as the two "value" bets I posted yesterday with Twins and Tiggers (both won getting GOOD plus money)...... I can't guarantee this though!  It could lose!  But I give it about a 51% shot to win and nice PLUS MONEY ta boot!

     

    The idea with these 50/50 coin-flipper "value" bets (with GOOD PLUS MONEY!) is to keep playing them over and over and over....should come out well ahead in profits over time even though the actual wins v. losses will be about 50/50 an_2drinks

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    @fubah2  I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150.  It might go higher, and I might bet it again. Go Cardinals     I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128.  Got them too soon as far as the lines go.
    That's good, imo. In fact I would have played this "value" bet as low as +120 if that was what was offered (not lower) because I actually have the Cards not just even, but a very small edge overall.....so this one is along similar chances as the two "value" bets I posted yesterday with Twins and Tiggers (both won getting GOOD plus money)...... I can't guarantee this though!  It could lose!  But I give it about a 51% shot to win and nice PLUS MONEY ta boot!

     

    The idea with these 50/50 coin-flipper "value" bets (with GOOD PLUS MONEY!) is to keep playing them over and over and over....should come out well ahead in profits over time even though the actual wins v. losses will be about 50/50 an_2drinks

     
    Premian
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    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 9:17 AM ET #913

    @fubah2

    Trying the Tigers as well at -105.   Go Tigers  an_horse  clover  

    I think this is my first time betting on the Tigers.

    Reply

    @fubah2

    Trying the Tigers as well at -105.   Go Tigers  an_horse  clover  

    I think this is my first time betting on the Tigers.

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 9:24 AM ET #914

    As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks!

    I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them.  My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them. an_brick

    Today, so far, I've found a few that I am NOT betting and NOT recommending either, but for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate....and yes wind conditions ARE taken into account....

    an_light Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:

    Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs  ....so under 8 ??

    Astros game ....suggests  7.3 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line??

    Rockies game ....suggests  9.6 net runs  ....so under 11 alt-line??

    Angels game ....suggests  7.5 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line??

     

    Reply

    As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks!

    I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them.  My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them. an_brick

    Today, so far, I've found a few that I am NOT betting and NOT recommending either, but for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate....and yes wind conditions ARE taken into account....

    an_light Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:

    Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs  ....so under 8 ??

    Astros game ....suggests  7.3 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line??

    Rockies game ....suggests  9.6 net runs  ....so under 11 alt-line??

    Angels game ....suggests  7.5 net runs  ....so under 9 alt-line??

     

     
    Coloneljim
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    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 9:29 AM ET #915

    Good luck on Monday's plays fubah.......clover  peace_5

    Reply

    Good luck on Monday's plays fubah.......clover  peace_5

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 9:52 AM ET #916

    Todd Zola for ESPN Fantasy news is suggesting he believes SPENCER HOWARD will be the SP for GIANTS today (as bulk reliever) since a starter has still not yet been announced....Roto suggests same.

    If so, I will be looking to bet ON the GIANTS if I can get a decent line, since the pitching would strongly favor the GIANTS facing a DBACK squad that does not bat well v. righties.

    I am expecting both these teams to have an upswing in performance after the change in venue and home/road status, but GIANTS more likely to rebound from a series of losses....

    Reply

    Todd Zola for ESPN Fantasy news is suggesting he believes SPENCER HOWARD will be the SP for GIANTS today (as bulk reliever) since a starter has still not yet been announced....Roto suggests same.

    If so, I will be looking to bet ON the GIANTS if I can get a decent line, since the pitching would strongly favor the GIANTS facing a DBACK squad that does not bat well v. righties.

    I am expecting both these teams to have an upswing in performance after the change in venue and home/road status, but GIANTS more likely to rebound from a series of losses....

     
    Premian
    Premian
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    Posts: 2062
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 10:07 AM ET #917

    @fubah2

     Thanks for the Info.  I am hoping Spencer Howard will be starting, but it isn't offered in my book yet.

    Reply

    @fubah2

     Thanks for the Info.  I am hoping Spencer Howard will be starting, but it isn't offered in my book yet.

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 10:31 AM ET #918

    Phillies?


    The top batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are:
       Brewskys
       Yankees
       Padres  .... yes, the mediocre Padres!
       Dodgers
       Phillies
       Astros
       Rangers

    The WORST batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are:
       WhiteSox
       Reds
       Angels
       Pirates
       Mariners
       Marlins

    Zack Wheeler (Phillies) is a very good pitcher... but it's interesting to note (as I do when I cap all starting pitchers) the number of GOOD batting teams he has faced (good v. righties) and the number of weakass batting teams (v.righties)

    Texas is the only GOOD one...but he's faced 6 weakass offenses v. righties an_eek2
    IOW, his GOOD pitching stats are "somewhat padded" from a weak schedule...

     

    But today he faces arguably the BEST team in MLB batting against righties!

    (Note: I use OBP primarily but Brewskys are #2 in OPS and #2 in BA as well!)

    I still have the Phillies circled with almost a half-run edge tonight, but if the line is over -135 I PASS!

    Reply

    Phillies?


    The top batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are:
       Brewskys
       Yankees
       Padres  .... yes, the mediocre Padres!
       Dodgers
       Phillies
       Astros
       Rangers

    The WORST batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are:
       WhiteSox
       Reds
       Angels
       Pirates
       Mariners
       Marlins

    Zack Wheeler (Phillies) is a very good pitcher... but it's interesting to note (as I do when I cap all starting pitchers) the number of GOOD batting teams he has faced (good v. righties) and the number of weakass batting teams (v.righties)

    Texas is the only GOOD one...but he's faced 6 weakass offenses v. righties an_eek2
    IOW, his GOOD pitching stats are "somewhat padded" from a weak schedule...

     

    But today he faces arguably the BEST team in MLB batting against righties!

    (Note: I use OBP primarily but Brewskys are #2 in OPS and #2 in BA as well!)

    I still have the Phillies circled with almost a half-run edge tonight, but if the line is over -135 I PASS!

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 10:50 AM ET #919

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150.  It might go higher, and I might bet it again.

    Go Cardinals  an_horse  clover

    I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128.  Got them too soon as far as the lines go.

    Fair enough!  To me the CARDS are a coin-flip but I can't pass up that payoff if indeed they win the 50-50 ball!

    Yes, I too see O's and Reds with small edges, I just wanna see better lines....

    Hoping to see a starter confirmed for GIANTS and then hopefully a decent line to grab them *IF* HOWARD is indeed the SP....as Giants appear to have better bullpen support if needed than the DBACKS......And while neither team bats well against righties,  DBACKS are worse than GIANTS....

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150.  It might go higher, and I might bet it again.

    Go Cardinals  an_horse  clover

    I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128.  Got them too soon as far as the lines go.

    Fair enough!  To me the CARDS are a coin-flip but I can't pass up that payoff if indeed they win the 50-50 ball!

    Yes, I too see O's and Reds with small edges, I just wanna see better lines....

    Hoping to see a starter confirmed for GIANTS and then hopefully a decent line to grab them *IF* HOWARD is indeed the SP....as Giants appear to have better bullpen support if needed than the DBACKS......And while neither team bats well against righties,  DBACKS are worse than GIANTS....

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 12:46 PM ET #920

    Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

    Good luck on Monday's plays fubah.......clover  peace_5

    @Coloneljim

     Thank you, and BoL with your bets today! clover an_2drinks

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

    Good luck on Monday's plays fubah.......clover  peace_5

    @Coloneljim

     Thank you, and BoL with your bets today! clover an_2drinks

     
    Premian
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    Posts: 2062
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 12:59 PM ET #921

    @fubah2

    My book is offering the Giants at +122, but Covers is not showing a starting pitcher.  Is it okay to take the Giants now?

    Reply

    @fubah2

    My book is offering the Giants at +122, but Covers is not showing a starting pitcher.  Is it okay to take the Giants now?

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53371
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 1:29 PM ET #922

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    @fubah2 My book is offering the Giants at +122, but Covers is not showing a starting pitcher.  Is it okay to take the Giants now?
    Personally, I wouldn't until I know for sure the matchup.....

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

    @fubah2 My book is offering the Giants at +122, but Covers is not showing a starting pitcher.  Is it okay to take the Giants now?
    Personally, I wouldn't until I know for sure the matchup.....

     
    Premian
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    Posts: 2062
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 1:30 PM ET #923

    @fubah2

     Okay, thanks.  I will wait for confirmation.

    Reply

    @fubah2

     Okay, thanks.  I will wait for confirmation.

     
    Premian
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    Posts: 2062
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 1:43 PM ET #924

    @fubah2

    The line on the Reds has dropped to -105, and the line on the Orioles to -108.  Does that make them more attractive or are they still too high?

    Reply

    @fubah2

    The line on the Reds has dropped to -105, and the line on the Orioles to -108.  Does that make them more attractive or are they still too high?

     
     
    dgonz21
    dgonz21
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    Posts: 2
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2024 - 4:38 PM ET #925

    Question fubah2 - as I frequently monitor your forum….

    based on unit amount, 

    how much units would u rate your

    1) regular bets

    2) value bets

    3) BB

     

     

    Reply

    Question fubah2 - as I frequently monitor your forum….

    based on unit amount, 

    how much units would u rate your

    1) regular bets

    2) value bets

    3) BB

     

     

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