We go to the 13th inning in Toronto, tied at 3.....Two weak bullpens!.... when Jays come to bat it will be the heart of their order...LIVE BET: Jays -145
The BlewitJays just blew their best shot with the heart of their order....Now goes to the 14th inning and the PIRATE'S top of the order is due up....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
We go to the 13th inning in Toronto, tied at 3.....Two weak bullpens!.... when Jays come to bat it will be the heart of their order...LIVE BET: Jays -145
The BlewitJays just blew their best shot with the heart of their order....Now goes to the 14th inning and the PIRATE'S top of the order is due up....
I am frequently wrong, but here's what my capping stats tell me for edges entering today's games:
WINNING bigly! Brewskys - +2.0 run edge
WIN 7 - 1 ....Cleveland - +1.8 run edge
Loser 4 - 5 ....Cubbies - +1.3 run edge
???? Dodgers - + 1.3 run edge (priced waaaaaay to high though!)
WIN 3 - 1 .....Orioles - +1.2 run edge
Lose 1 - 6 .....Astros - +1.2 run edge
WIN 4 - 2 .....Braves - +1.1 run edge (but waay overpriced for that edge!)
WIN 4 - 2 .....Phillies - +1.0 run edge
NOTE: Phillies edge in my stats DO NOT JUSTIFY laying -178 or so!!.....However, I am banking a bit more on a belief that a change in venue for both teams will reverse recent performances....
5 of 8 went according to script
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
I am frequently wrong, but here's what my capping stats tell me for edges entering today's games:
WINNING bigly! Brewskys - +2.0 run edge
WIN 7 - 1 ....Cleveland - +1.8 run edge
Loser 4 - 5 ....Cubbies - +1.3 run edge
???? Dodgers - + 1.3 run edge (priced waaaaaay to high though!)
WIN 3 - 1 .....Orioles - +1.2 run edge
Lose 1 - 6 .....Astros - +1.2 run edge
WIN 4 - 2 .....Braves - +1.1 run edge (but waay overpriced for that edge!)
WIN 4 - 2 .....Phillies - +1.0 run edge
NOTE: Phillies edge in my stats DO NOT JUSTIFY laying -178 or so!!.....However, I am banking a bit more on a belief that a change in venue for both teams will reverse recent performances....
@fubah2 Good job avoiding the Dodgers. I was dumb enough to put them in 2 of my 3 team Parlays at -300.
Well, not dumb, Premian....the odds favored them and the game isn't over.... But empirically it does appear the HEAVY ML favs are struggling, and definitely taking a net loss on juice, so I recommend caution.
Saturday, Dodgers are MASSIVE FAVS once again....
I used to sometimes say to myself this "rookie" capper quote:
"There's no way they are going to lose AGAIN to this team ...blah, blah, blah"
Famous last words.
I learned the hard way......sigh.....
Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 Good job avoiding the Dodgers. I was dumb enough to put them in 2 of my 3 team Parlays at -300.
Well, not dumb, Premian....the odds favored them and the game isn't over.... But empirically it does appear the HEAVY ML favs are struggling, and definitely taking a net loss on juice, so I recommend caution.
Saturday, Dodgers are MASSIVE FAVS once again....
I used to sometimes say to myself this "rookie" capper quote:
"There's no way they are going to lose AGAIN to this team ...blah, blah, blah"
@fubah2 Yeah, I had to learn the hard way. The Guardians were okay, but the Dodgers were way out there. How do we know when to take a team at -1.5? Especially a home team?
I avoid a RL HOME TEAM fav in large part because they often don't get a 9th at bat and just win by one run....or the go to the 9th (or extra-innings) tied and as soon as a run crosses the plate they win by ONE and game over.....
Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 Yeah, I had to learn the hard way. The Guardians were okay, but the Dodgers were way out there. How do we know when to take a team at -1.5? Especially a home team?
I avoid a RL HOME TEAM fav in large part because they often don't get a 9th at bat and just win by one run....or the go to the 9th (or extra-innings) tied and as soon as a run crosses the plate they win by ONE and game over.....
@fubah2 Excellent results. Do you usually avoid Parlays? Or can they be used to make minus money bets into plus money bets? Maybe as 2 teamers instead of 3 teamers?
Hi Well it depends on the sport I'm betting. Parlays are ok BUT only if a capper owns a year-over-year winning W/L record....without that to support, then parlays are just a faster way to loserville.... This is a mathematical fact. Otherwise it's like flipping a coin where the house does indeed own the edge! However, playing parlays with very small amounts can be fun for entertainment purposes, understanding that without a consistent winning record picking winning teams, then over time those funds will most likely disappear.... Find a category of bets that you are really good at picking and parlay those....
My first year handicapping (almost 30 yrs ago) I didn't bet squat...I just tracked my picks to see if I was good enough to risk real money. Mixed results, but I ventured into it anyway, and lost a little each of my first few years until I gradually refined my methods. I am NOT an expert. I lose often! But thankfully I win more than lose and that makes it fun...
I have been blessed to have winning seasons with NFL, NCAAF, mens and womens college hoops, and SURPRISINGLY MLB - after a 3 year layoff!
There are numerous cappers in the various forums far more experienced and more skilled than me. But yes, I am having a very pleasing run the past 20 months or so.
Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 Excellent results. Do you usually avoid Parlays? Or can they be used to make minus money bets into plus money bets? Maybe as 2 teamers instead of 3 teamers?
Hi Well it depends on the sport I'm betting. Parlays are ok BUT only if a capper owns a year-over-year winning W/L record....without that to support, then parlays are just a faster way to loserville.... This is a mathematical fact. Otherwise it's like flipping a coin where the house does indeed own the edge! However, playing parlays with very small amounts can be fun for entertainment purposes, understanding that without a consistent winning record picking winning teams, then over time those funds will most likely disappear.... Find a category of bets that you are really good at picking and parlay those....
My first year handicapping (almost 30 yrs ago) I didn't bet squat...I just tracked my picks to see if I was good enough to risk real money. Mixed results, but I ventured into it anyway, and lost a little each of my first few years until I gradually refined my methods. I am NOT an expert. I lose often! But thankfully I win more than lose and that makes it fun...
I have been blessed to have winning seasons with NFL, NCAAF, mens and womens college hoops, and SURPRISINGLY MLB - after a 3 year layoff!
There are numerous cappers in the various forums far more experienced and more skilled than me. But yes, I am having a very pleasing run the past 20 months or so.
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
SALE, Braves
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day. There's 14 other games to look at. I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!
WARNING: HOT STREAK alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
SALE, Braves
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day. There's 14 other games to look at. I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!
Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I didn't bet!) Cubs game 8 Orioles game if taking 9 alt-line BoSox game if taking 9 alt-line Braves game if taking 9 alt-line Those alt-lines do carry higher juice of course, but not so high as to make them a bad risk vs the odds of staying under. I am just tracking these now since giving up betting unders due to losing too often with them.....since then, tracking the unders I should've taken but didn't -- they have won 17 of 24, not yet counting those above.....sigh.... Woulda gone 2 - 2 had I bet those unders with only a modest loss on juice....
Count over the past week moves to 19 - 9 that woulda stayed UNDER the total (assuming rounding up to a solid integer even with alt-total juice)
Saturday's indicated unders that I won't bet nor recommend:
BoSox game only if 9 alt
Braves game only if 8 alt
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
UNDERS?
Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I didn't bet!) Cubs game 8 Orioles game if taking 9 alt-line BoSox game if taking 9 alt-line Braves game if taking 9 alt-line Those alt-lines do carry higher juice of course, but not so high as to make them a bad risk vs the odds of staying under. I am just tracking these now since giving up betting unders due to losing too often with them.....since then, tracking the unders I should've taken but didn't -- they have won 17 of 24, not yet counting those above.....sigh.... Woulda gone 2 - 2 had I bet those unders with only a modest loss on juice....
Count over the past week moves to 19 - 9 that woulda stayed UNDER the total (assuming rounding up to a solid integer even with alt-total juice)
Saturday's indicated unders that I won't bet nor recommend:
W Phillies -178; W Orioles -142 *BB; L Cubs -139 *BB; W Cleveland -210 *BB; L Astros -110 *BB; W Brewskys -160 *BB W LIVE BET: Jays -145
Yesterday: 5 - 2 +2.51u (3 - 2 BB)
I also have SERIES bets on Cleveland and Brewskys pending, up 1 - 0 each...
YTD: 149 - 95+201.25u*(62 - 39 BB)
*...if I had assigned multiple units to my picks averaging around 5 units each (like some do on covers.com) ... WOW!! Impressive huh?!! Or, if I had assigned 10 units to all my picks then my record would be a whopping +402.50 units! ....BUT, if you choose to view all forum records by the same equal standard - ie, all picks scored by ONE-unit - then mine is +40.25 units
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Friday, May 31(pinnacle overnight lines)
W Phillies -178; W Orioles -142 *BB; L Cubs -139 *BB; W Cleveland -210 *BB; L Astros -110 *BB; W Brewskys -160 *BB W LIVE BET: Jays -145
Yesterday: 5 - 2 +2.51u (3 - 2 BB)
I also have SERIES bets on Cleveland and Brewskys pending, up 1 - 0 each...
YTD: 149 - 95+201.25u*(62 - 39 BB)
*...if I had assigned multiple units to my picks averaging around 5 units each (like some do on covers.com) ... WOW!! Impressive huh?!! Or, if I had assigned 10 units to all my picks then my record would be a whopping +402.50 units! ....BUT, if you choose to view all forum records by the same equal standard - ie, all picks scored by ONE-unit - then mine is +40.25 units
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING: HOT STREAK alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! SALE, Braves Brave's, Sale, already allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in just 1 inning!
Yep. Now thru just 4 innings, SALE has allowed 10 onboard and 8 earned runs!
What's interesting to note is that entering this game - on his HOT STREAK - SALE is a very GOOD pitcher! But everybody has a bad day and today was his, obviously....Hencee my WARNINGS about starters on an extended HOT STREAK.....we are pushing our luck betting on such guys...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING: HOT STREAK alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! SALE, Braves Brave's, Sale, already allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in just 1 inning!
Yep. Now thru just 4 innings, SALE has allowed 10 onboard and 8 earned runs!
What's interesting to note is that entering this game - on his HOT STREAK - SALE is a very GOOD pitcher! But everybody has a bad day and today was his, obviously....Hencee my WARNINGS about starters on an extended HOT STREAK.....we are pushing our luck betting on such guys...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Saturday JUNE 01: Cleveland -134 (Pinnacle)Twinkies +109 (Pinnacle)Min/HOU ov 7 -136 (alt-total, Pinnacle) Leans for possible LIVE bets: O's; Brewskys; Marlins
The CLEVELAND win today also clinches my series bet
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Saturday JUNE 01: Cleveland -134 (Pinnacle)Twinkies +109 (Pinnacle)Min/HOU ov 7 -136 (alt-total, Pinnacle) Leans for possible LIVE bets: O's; Brewskys; Marlins
The CLEVELAND win today also clinches my series bet
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 11-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
SUAREZ, Phillies
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day. There's 14 other games to look at. I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!
WARNING: HOT STREAK alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 11-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
SUAREZ, Phillies
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day. There's 14 other games to look at. I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!
My Brewskys had stranded 
I am 
...blah, blah, blah"
WARNING
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