Posted:
#826
Quote Originally Posted by insatiable:
@fubah2
@fubah2
@insatiable
Thank you, and BoL with your bets today! 
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#833
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Couldn't cap the Pitt/TOR game earlier because Pirates had not named a SP Now Falter is listed By the looks of it, this may be a dead-even match going in.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Couldn't cap the Pitt/TOR game earlier because Pirates had not named a SP Now Falter is listed By the looks of it, this may be a dead-even match going in.
Yep, dead-even. This is a "value" bet game where my capping stats indicate a virtual coin-flipper - ie, no discernible edge to either team but one side is getting SIGNIFICANT "plus money" on the ML (ie greater than +120). Same for the Det/BOS game!
Personally I am not betting either this time around as I am re-evaluating my methods...
Posted:
#834
Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 I have noticed 5 of my 6 teams' lines are moving more negative and the Orioles are staying at -140. The Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Rangers and Red Sox have all gone significantly more negative. On average, is this good or bad? I have seen mixed results.
Steam?
@fubah2 I have noticed 5 of my 6 teams' lines are moving more negative and the Orioles are staying at -140. The Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Rangers and Red Sox have all gone significantly more negative. On average, is this good or bad? I have seen mixed results.
Different cappers have different views on this. Personally, I pay no attention unless it's a significant move on BOTH the moneyline *AND* total....because then it is almost always a "player" issue which most surely could impact my bet. I watch the injury reports closely especially in the 90 mins prior to first pitch.
Posted:
#839
So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing"
Houck, Boston (8)
Lopez, Atlanta (9)
Blanco, Houston (9)
However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...
Posted:
#840
Originally my capping sheets indicated TEXAS had a fair edge and with a small ML was worthy of a bet.....but I backed off upon further review because I am testing a new idea to my capping methods - putting more emphasis on the "change of venue fortunes" - particularly if the recent stint elsewhere was either good or poor......more or less along the lines of a team being "due" for a change in recent outcomes....
....we shall see.... but I backed away from TEXAS as a result of evaluating BOTH Marlins and Rangers recent play....
Posted:
#842
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: UNDERS?
Those alt-lines do carry higher juice of course, but not so high as to make them a bad risk vs the odds of staying under. I am just tracking these now since giving up betting unders due to losing too often with them.....since then, tracking the unders I should've taken but didn't -- they have won 17 of 24, not yet counting those above.....sigh....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: UNDERS?
Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I didn't bet!)
Cubs game 8
Orioles game if taking 9 alt-line
BoSox game if taking 9 alt-line
Braves game if taking 9 alt-line
Posted:
#843
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
BLANCO, Houston yielded 4 earned runs in just 4.2 ip and so that ends his HOT STREAK. The other two pitchers extend their hot streak, thus increasing the odds they might have a bad outing next time up
So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing"
Houck, Boston (8)
Lopez, Atlanta (9)
Blanco, Houston (9)
However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...
Posted:
#845
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Originally my capping sheets indicated TEXAS had a fair edge and with a small ML was worthy of a bet.....but I backed off upon further review because I am testing a new idea to my capping methods - putting more emphasis on the "change of venue fortunes" - particularly if the recent stint elsewhere was either good or poor......more or less along the lines of a team being "due" for a change in recent outcomes.... ....we shall see.... but I backed away from TEXAS as a result of evaluating BOTH Marlins and Rangers recent play....
Really glad I backed off that TEXAS play!!!
Originally my capping sheets indicated TEXAS had a fair edge and with a small ML was worthy of a bet.....but I backed off upon further review because I am testing a new idea to my capping methods - putting more emphasis on the "change of venue fortunes" - particularly if the recent stint elsewhere was either good or poor......more or less along the lines of a team being "due" for a change in recent outcomes.... ....we shall see.... but I backed away from TEXAS as a result of evaluating BOTH Marlins and Rangers recent play....
Posted:
#846
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing" Houck, Boston (8) Lopez, Atlanta (9) Blanco, Houston (9) However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...
Now looking like that "bad outing" will cost the Astros....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing" Houck, Boston (8) Lopez, Atlanta (9) Blanco, Houston (9) However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...
BLANCO, Houston yielded 4 earned runs in just 4.2 ip and so that ends his HOT STREAK. The other two pitchers extend their hot streak, thus increasing the odds they might have a bad outing next time up
Posted:
#850
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
UNDERS?
Woulda gone 2 - 2 had I bet those unders with only a modest loss on juice....
UNDERS?
Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I didn't bet!)
Cubs game 8
Orioles game if taking 9 alt-line
BoSox game if taking 9 alt-line
Braves game if taking 9 alt-line
Those alt-lines do carry higher juice of course, but not so high as to make them a bad risk vs the odds of staying under. I am just tracking these now since giving up betting unders due to losing too often with them.....since then, tracking the unders I should've taken but didn't -- they have won 17 of 24, not yet counting those above.....sigh....
Count over the past week moves to 19 - 9 that woulda stayed UNDER the total (assuming rounding up to a solid integer even with alt-total juice)
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