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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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Posted: #801

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

"Jury Deliberation Day #2" May 30: 

W   Brewskys  -118  ...I peg them at a +0.9 run edge due to a thin edge on the mound but what should be a solid edge at the plate

 L  Mariners  -136

 

BoL with your bets today, fellas!

1 - 1  -0.36u        

...but what a FANTASTIC day May 30 has been!!! an_happydude  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #802

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

an_police an_blowhorn  WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

   This STARTER is riding a tenuous 10-game HOT STREAK,

                  WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

        an_light  WILLIAMS,  Nats  >>> facing very good Lopez!

WILLIAMS had yet another GOOD outing today!!

Only 6 allowed onboard and just one run through 5.2 ip  an_clap

His  tenuous HOT STREAK continues onto #11 ...

 
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Posted: #803

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: UNDERS?   On Sunday, I noted that I would have gone 5 - 2 if I had bet the unders which my capping had circled as good odds to win! But I backed off due to my confirmed LOSING RECORD betting unders... Monday, I would have LOST both I had circled as good under bets. Yesterday, my capping identified 6 games where an UNDER was clearly indicated.  I stuck to my rule and did not bet any......They would have gone 5 - 1........sigh That woulda been 10 - 5   the past 3 days!   WEDNESDAY, I will not bet nor recommend these, but here is what my capping stats have identified as decent UNDER bets *IF* rounding up to a solid integer (no halves) even if that mean an alt-total/buying pts.... Texas game   9         ...woulda won the under! Mets game    9       ...woulda LOST the under! Rays game    8         ...woulda won the under! Twins game    8        ...woulda won the under! Brewskys game   8   ...woulda LOST the under! Rockies game   11       ...woulda pushed  Angels game   9       ...woulda won the under! =  4 - 2  and a push if I would have bet them

an_lightFour day total of missed opportunity:  14 - 7  unders won  an_smash

 

 

Thursday's possible unders indicated by my stats, you might like:

METS game       8  (not 7.5!!!)

BOSOX game     8

BRAVES game     9   (not 8.5!!!)

All three of those hypothetical unders won today.....sigh...

FIVE day total of missed opportunity:  17 of 24 unders won!

 
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Posted: #804

Thanks for the posts, fubah. Excellent info.  What will MLB do to stop this under trend?.  

 
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Posted: #805

Quote Originally Posted by papamo:

Thanks for the posts, fubah. Excellent info.  What will MLB do to stop this under trend?.

Not sure.

But 'll likely have more "unders" to track this weekend if it might help anyone.

May even list some late late tonight ...

 
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Posted: #806

@papamo

 Weather will start to heat up which may help the overs.

 
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Posted: #807

Friday, May 31   very risky bets  I made:       an_nailbiter regression???

(pinnacle overnight lines)

 Phillies -178; Orioles -142 *BB; Cubs -139 *BB; Cleveland -210 *BB; Astros -110 *BB; Brewskys -160 *BB

 
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Posted: #808

an_policean_blowhorn WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

                an_light  HOUCK, RedSox

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #809

an_police an_blowhorn WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

                        an_light  LOPEZ,  Atlanta

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #810

an_police an_blowhorn WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

 

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_speechless an_getaway

 

                     an_light   BLANCO,  Houston

 

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #811

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

UNDERS?   On Sunday, I noted that I would have gone 5 - 2 if I had bet the unders which my capping had circled as good odds to win! But I backed off due to my confirmed LOSING RECORD betting unders... Monday, I would have LOST both I had circled as good under bets. Yesterday, my capping identified 6 games where an UNDER was clearly indicated.  I stuck to my rule and did not bet any......They would have gone 5 - 1........sigh That woulda been 10 - 5   the past 3 days!   WEDNESDAY, I will not bet nor recommend these, but here is what my capping stats have identified as decent UNDER bets *IF* rounding up to a solid integer (no halves) even if that mean an alt-total/buying pts.... Texas game   9         ...woulda won the under! Mets game    9       ...woulda LOST the under! Rays game    8         ...woulda won the under! Twins game    8        ...woulda won the under! Brewskys game   8   ...woulda LOST the under! Rockies game   11       ...woulda pushed  Angels game   9       ...woulda won the under! =  4 - 2  and a push if I would have bet them Four day total of missed opportunity:  14 - 7  unders won     

Thursday's possible unders indicated by my stats, you might like: METS game       8  (not 7.5!!!) BOSOX game     8 BRAVES game     9   (not 8.5!!!) All three of those hypothetical unders won today.....sigh... FIVE day total of missed opportunity:  17 of 24 unders won!

All three of those hypothetical unders won today.....sigh...

 

FIVE day total of missed opportunity:  17 of 24 unders won! an_smash

Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I won't bet)

Cubs game    8

Orioles game   if 9 alt-line

BoSox game    if 9 alt-line

Braves game   if 9 alt-line

 

 
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Posted: #812

cool My 2024 full season results so far:

Aprl 30:   3 - 5     -2.65u      (1 - 2 *BB)
May 01:   7 - 0    +7.64u      (4 - 0 *BB)
May 02:   1 - 0    +1.00u
May 03:   5 - 5     -1.16u      (4 - 3 *BB)
May 04:   5 - 7     -4.25u      (4 - 2 *BB)
May 05: 11 - 8    +6.72u      (4 - 4 *BB)
May 06:   2 - 3     -1.39u      (1 - 3 *BB)
May 07:   8 - 2    +4.70u      (5 - 2 *BB)
May 08:   3 - 2    +0.58u      (2 - 1 *BB)
May 09:   2 - 0    +2.00u      (1 - 0 *BB)
May 10: 13 - 8    +5.45u      (6 - 5 *BB)
May 11:   7 - 3    +2.60u      (2 - 1 *BB)
May 12:   7 - 4    +1.34u      (1 - 2 *BB)
May 13:   2 - 6     -6.33u      (0 - 3 *BB)
May 14:   3 - 3     -1.28u      (3 - 1 *BB)
May 15:   1 - 1      -0.18u      (1 - 1 *BB)

 
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Posted: #813

May 16:   1 - 1     -0.41u
May 17: 10 - 2    +9.58u      (2 - 1 *BB)
May 18:   5 - 2    +3.54u      (2 - 0 *BB)
May 19:   3 - 3     -0.49u
May 20:   7 - 3    +3.30u      (4 - 0 *BB)
May 21:   4 - 2    +1.01u      (1 - 2 *BB)
May 22:   2 - 2    +0.33u
May 23:   6 - 0    +6.00u      (3 - 0 *BB)
May 24:   8 - 4    +3.28u      (3 - 0 *BB)
May 25:   2 - 3     -2.06u      (0 - 1 *BB)
May 26:   3 - 5     -3.78u      (3 - 2 *BB)
May 27:   3 - 4     -1.07u      (1 - 1 *BB)
May 28:   4 - 3     -0.36u
May 29:   5 - 1    +4.43u      (1 - 0 *BB)
May 30:   1 - 1     -0.36u

 
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Posted: #814

@fubah2

Hi, what do you think of these teams today, probably some of them are overpriced?  

Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers.  I have bets on all of them, mostly via Parlay.

 
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Posted: #815

@Premian

 Take a look at his post # 807 bigsmile 

The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #816

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!           This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK,                      WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!       ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!                              BLANCO,  Houston   Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided. When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

the obv side note being homey Blanco was suspended over a month…peace_5  I believe this will only be his second start back from the jailhouse. Im keenly watching for that edge if I can catch Stros at no vig or better. 

Other than that, I LOVE the Hot streak Fade… an_cheers  I wish I was an over/under capper an_speechless 

Ho Lee Phuk 

 

 

The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #817

@wolfeman3

Oh, good, got the Orioles, Guardians and Brewers.  thumbs_up 

But what about the Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers?

 
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Posted: #818

SERIES bet:  Brewskys  -250  an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #819

Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

@fubah2 Hi, what do you think of these teams today, probably some of them are overpriced?   Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers.  I have bets on all of them, mostly via Parlay.

 

Dodgers are overpriced BUT they look solid to win anyway thumbs_up 

 
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Posted: #820

@fubah2

Yeah, pretty much at -300, any team combination would be overpriced in MLB.  Hopefully they win anyway.  thumbs_up

The ones I am most concerned about at this point are the Red Sox and the Rangers.  

Best of luck on your Picks.   clover

 
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Posted: #821

@fubah2

 Tailed ya a bit Partner with Phi -1 and Balty ml… Nothing wild just some action.  Hey Aloha Friday, and I think you go 4-2 and collect yet again moneybag

The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #822

Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

@fubah2 Yeah, pretty much at -300, any team combination would be overpriced in MLB.  Hopefully they win anyway.   The ones I am most concerned about at this point are the Red Sox and the Rangers.   Best of luck on your Picks.

RedSox iffy.  Hauck is excellent but on a tenuous hot streak that can end quickly, and BoSox offense is in a slump - having scored just 19 runs over the past 2+ series (7 games) an_getaway   IF Hauck does not implode they could have a fair shot to prevail today.

 
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Posted: #823

Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:

@fubah2  Tailed ya a bit Partner with Phi -1 and Balty ml… Nothing wild just some action.  Hey Aloha Friday, and I think you go 4-2 and collect yet again

@wolfeman3

 In that case I really hope YOU win those two! clover thumbs_up

 

I am frequently wrong, but my capping stats tell me:

Brewskys -  full +2.0 run edge today!

Cleveland - +1.8 run edge today

Cubbies -  +1.3 run edge today

Dodgers - + 1.3 run edge today    (priced waaaay to high though)

Orioles -   +1.2 run edge today

Astros -  +1.2 run edge today

Braves - +1.1 run edge today   (but waaay overpriced for that edge!)

Phillies - +1.0 run edge today

Phillies edge in my stats DO NOT JUSTIFY laying -178 or so!!.....however, I am banking a bit more on a belief that a change in venue for both teams will reverse recent performances....the best team in MLB will bounce back from a 2 - 6 road trip, while their St.Louis opponent will more than likely have a slight let down after a 5 - 1 home stand, but now on the road facing a VERY TOUGH opponent looking to bounce back

 
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Posted: #824

@fubah2

 cloveran_cheers

 
 
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Posted: #825

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

SERIES bet:  Brewskys  -250
SERIES: Cleveland -230

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