🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

My tangibles (stats) suggest Atlanta should have about +0.9 run edge over Padres tonight.  But I thought they had an even bigger edge last night (so I bet them twice!) and it was a friggin' 

The current odds are actually on the fringe of a take for that amount of edge.  They do have a better chance to win than lose but do I wanna risk that amount of juice on an edge which isn't GREAT......good yes, but not great.

The "intangibles" portion of my capping (intuition/experience) are telling me to back off largely focusing on the starters.  Buehler has SUCKED recently!  But he was exceptional prior to this 3 game stretch and against good offenses!  So is the recent stretch indicative of his pitching abilities that we can expect the rest of the year including tonight?  Or does he bounce back to the form we KNOW he is capable of......  Lopez for Atlanta has decent numbers ....SO FAR.  If he had a longer consecutive history as a starter this year (ie, not broken by 2 months of reliever duty) then I would feel more comfortable.  Small sample size always gets my caution light flashing.   And he's coming off a  bad outing.  Sure, he may rebound!  Absolutely!!! But so too may Buehler.  Either might rebound off bad performances or either could implode and lose.  

Well Atlanta has the better chance, but for me I don't want to risk that amount of juice and will be just fine if it ends up I passed on a win.

In the METS/Brewer game I don't have enough stats to assess THORNTON accurately, especially for ROAD starts vs GOOD teams.  And Sproat for Brewskies hoovers around mediocre calibre most of the time, so the odds are right about where they probably should be and I see no significant edge either side of those odds.

PASS 

CWS/TEX ov 8.0 -146 alt-total@pinn *BB    ...8.5 is a much weaker option I don't advise

  My YTD with OVERS is 25 - 24

This total has no guarantee.  Anything can happen in baseball.  FLUKES even!  Unexpected great performances by bad starters or implosions by GOOD starters. Bats can suddenly have an off day, or get incredibly fortunate.  There are risks.  But I see 2 mediocre starters (one backed by a WEAK BP) I also see CWS with an above league average offense and Texas with an average offense overall, EXCEPT they are #2 against lefties! and they face a mediocre left tonight.  ROCKER is coming off a couple B-2-B POOR performances, AT HOME!  He may rebound; he may not. If he was already a GREAT starter (ie, a very low WHIP) I would assume a bounce back....but it's a coin-flipper when we are talking a mediocre dude. I'm taking the mid-position and assuming more or less mediocrity. Not bad, but not great against a GOOD offense.

So if averages hold (and they may not) but if they do, Texas should score 4+ tonight (they got 3 against a righty last night and they are MUCH BETTER vs lefties) and I would expect that solid CWS offense to hit 4+ as well .....Allowing for possibility of better or worse performances, my estimated range suggests: 7.6  to  10.8 runs.   over 8.5 doesn't fit well but I believe over 8 gives me about a 75% chance for a win or push, or roughly 1 chance in 4 of losing.

Just remember what my Dad always used to tell me:

"Some days you feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football; and other days you feel even more like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football"

Pretty decent breeze blowing out to left-center at COORS tonight.  Hot too!

 GL FUb, I know a thing or two about feeling like Charlie Brown lol ; esp when it comes to capping, life… keep up the awesome job buddy 

@Coloneljim

TY very much and I hope your bets profit this week! 

Hoping you are doing well! 

 Posted by fubah2   Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:    Tuesday: Cleveland -148   Hoping you are doing well!...  thanks fubah2 ... EYES ON TEXAS to win.. ALWAYS ready for the cash out profit... (tied em live to cleve un7-)  CONGRATS CLEVELAND WINNER ,,,  EDIT NOW I SEE 7-0 rooting for your over .... best of luck

Tampa is crushing the Blew-it Jays in the 9th, and GAUSMAN did indeed add yet ANOTHER "BAD" outing to his resume allowing 11 to reach base in only 3.1 ip  

 Posted by fubah2  CWS/TEX ov 8.0 -146 alt-total *BB   ... WINNER 9 runs in 5 innings     EDIT TAMPA BAY 20 HITS  

Tuesday, July 21 results:

W Cleveland -148
W CWS/TEX ov 8.0 -146 alt-total@pinn *BB

  2 - 0 +2.00u  [1 - 0 *BB]

18 - 8   +9.12u  [6 - 3 *BB]  run, since Saturday a.m.

@fubah2

 thx  for those winners  fubs !     great work !!

@KellyM_1964

 TY Kelly!    Did you have other bets as well?

     YTD all posted bets:   359 - 258   +41.50u*

* Scored as if all at one unit, even though I actually bet much more (or less) on many.

Any thoughts on Dbacks buddy ?

.         YTD all posted bets:   359 - 258   +41.50u*

       *Scored as if all at ONE UNIT, even though I actually bet much more (or less) on many.

    It's HUMPING DAY!  

.... unless you're married and over 35......in which case, it's just another Wednesday

Posted by fubah2  It's HUMPING DAY!     .... unless you're married and over 35......in which case, it's just another Wednesday.....  

IMHO,  a coin-flipper....suggesting the value here is taking the PLUS $$$ on a 50/50 chance,  though personally I am looking at other bets right now...

My stats indicate MARINERS (Hancock) do hold a modest edge today but are significantly OVER-VALUED by the odds...

so it's a HARD PASS for me

But BoL to anyone on them...

GL  @fubah2

My early capping shows UNDERS for the games at Colorado, Arizona and especially Seattle - but I don't do unders anymore as they are akin to explosive diarrhea in a crowded elevator!

Add Anaheim (Angels game) to that list of friggn unders which I am neither betting nor recommending....just posting what my capping notes indicate...