I have NOT yet handicapped the new series beginning Friday,
but just off the cuff,
it appears to me already, that the initial overnight lines on: Cubs, Phillies, Mariners, Brewers, Dodgers, A's, and Cleveland might well be at least somewhat overpriced.
IF true, from my experience we can probably expect the fav lines on those teams to drop some in the morning when Americans are enjoying their first cuppa. You might want to wait not just until the morning but thru the full morning to see how those fav lines settle. BUT if you are on the dogs, a lot of those lines look to be a bit overpriced and now might be the time to grab dogs *IF* and only if YOU have fully capped the games (not just guesses) and have favorable views on one or several dogs...
As I work thru the night and wee hrs, I have so far found 3 value bets. These are coin-flippers. 50/50. All these could just as easily win or lose. If you bet on any of these expecting a win then YOU are making a rookie mistake. DON'T! The theory behind my "value bets" is to find "coin-flippers" where the dog is getting significant PLUS $$$. Over the season this should produce significant profit but NOT from the wins vs losses, as it is expected to go only 50/50. And there is plenty of variance as well! Meaning these coin-flippers might go like 2 for 15 or some such, in any random stretch! And if you try and "pick & choose" some but not all, then YOU are making another rookie mistake, as the variance factor actually INCREASES against you. As my value bet count currently stands positive at 28 - 14 the theory would suggest I am likely to post a few more LOSERS than winners the rest of the way (the numbers should regress toward a 50% mean)
Mind you, there is also a chance, a small one, that maybe the way I handicap coin-flippers actually leans a bit more toward wins than losses....Beats me. I'll be happy if it hits 50% by the end of the season, because THAT will be profitable.
However going forward, starting FRIDAY, I will not be the least bit surprised if more of my value bets LOSE than win. This is anticipated within the 50/50 theory.
BoSox +125 @B365 value ...with JUDGE still out, this is a coin-flipper
Marlins +122 @FD value ...dead-even; 4.0 runs each
CWS +158 @Fd value ...I actually show a miniscule edge for CWS of +0.1 even with Murakami out.
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