" You gotta know when to hold'em Know when to fold'em Know when to walk away ..."
YTD all posted bets: 408 - 294 +42.70u*
71- 47 since ASB
Best Bets this season: 163 - 109
2025 Final YTD: 177 - 115+28.47u*60.6%
2024 Final YTD: 186 - 117+52.72u*61.5% [71 - 44 *BB!]
*All counted at the common standard "one unit per bet" - as this is a record of my skills at picking winners (or lack thereof!) not an accounting of how much money (units) I may claim to bet, despite the fact, like most, I OFTEN bet more on some.
" You gotta know when to hold'em Know when to fold'em Know when to walk away ..."
YTD all posted bets: 408 - 294 +42.70u*
71- 47 since ASB
Best Bets this season: 163 - 109
2025 Final YTD: 177 - 115+28.47u*60.6%
2024 Final YTD: 186 - 117+52.72u*61.5% [71 - 44 *BB!]
*All counted at the common standard "one unit per bet" - as this is a record of my skills at picking winners (or lack thereof!) not an accounting of how much money (units) I may claim to bet, despite the fact, like most, I OFTEN bet more on some.
Quote Originally Posted by Upandoher: @fubah2 Will you let us know what your serious likes are and actual bets tomorrow ???? I wish I woulda opened your thread today @Upandoher Will do.... but with caveats. LOL. Already I have BALTIMORE as a serious LEAN
LEANING TAMPA
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Upandoher: @fubah2 Will you let us know what your serious likes are and actual bets tomorrow ???? I wish I woulda opened your thread today @Upandoher Will do.... but with caveats. LOL. Already I have BALTIMORE as a serious LEAN
...I make Detroit with a smallish +0.4 run edge overall, primarily due to a slightly stronger offense but also a very slight edge on the mound. It's close, but either it's dead even or Detroit has a small edge. Either way, I see value in the dog getting significant plus $$$ in what is likely a coin-flipper. There is no expectation for a win in a 50/50 coin-flip!But if we bet enough coin-flips over time - always taking the good PLUS $$$ - we turn a profit!
LEANING Tiggers (plus $$$ value?)
...I make Detroit with a smallish +0.4 run edge overall, primarily due to a slightly stronger offense but also a very slight edge on the mound. It's close, but either it's dead even or Detroit has a small edge. Either way, I see value in the dog getting significant plus $$$ in what is likely a coin-flipper. There is no expectation for a win in a 50/50 coin-flip!But if we bet enough coin-flips over time - always taking the good PLUS $$$ - we turn a profit!
RODON - a LEFTY - used to be an ELITE starter, but not this year. Above avg yes, but not ELITE. His season WHIP is only 1.25 (WHIP is a stronger indicator of skill than ERA) League average among starters is around 1.29 give or take. Not a lot of difference.
Sure he could have a FANTASTIC performance tonight! Of course he could!
Or maybe not.
But consider, he missed the opening 1.5 months due to injury....His first game back from injury he was on the road, tossed a wild pitch, allowed 8 baserunners and 3 ernies and yanked after just 4.1 ip. A "bad" outing.
He continued to pitch 8 more games [3 of his 5 starts in June were mediocre!] then injured AGAIN, and out for another 1.5 mos.
Tonight is his first game back after a long stretch and he is on the road(just like last time)
RODON - a LEFTY - used to be an ELITE starter, but not this year. Above avg yes, but not ELITE. His season WHIP is only 1.25 (WHIP is a stronger indicator of skill than ERA) League average among starters is around 1.29 give or take. Not a lot of difference.
Sure he could have a FANTASTIC performance tonight! Of course he could!
Or maybe not.
But consider, he missed the opening 1.5 months due to injury....His first game back from injury he was on the road, tossed a wild pitch, allowed 8 baserunners and 3 ernies and yanked after just 4.1 ip. A "bad" outing.
He continued to pitch 8 more games [3 of his 5 starts in June were mediocre!] then injured AGAIN, and out for another 1.5 mos.
Tonight is his first game back after a long stretch and he is on the road(just like last time)
Yankees are facing a surprisingly decent and I believe under-rated righty starter in Shane BAZ, who - like RODON - pitches better at home than on the road. He's AT HOME tonight. Even better is he is coming off a "bad"/embarrassing outing (road), and likely to rebound at home. Over the last 7 HOME starts he has not pitched a "bad" outing and held opponents to the following impressively low earned runs:
1 2 2 3 2 1 1
BAZ will be facing an offense, missing a key batter, and averaging just 2.91 rpg over the recent 4 complete series! An offense which fares well vs LEFTIES, but near the bottom of the league when facing RIGHTIES! (past 4 series) BAZ is a righty.
Conversely, lefty RODON - in his first game back from a long stint on the IL - will be facing an ORIOLE offense (see post #8463 above) scoring above league average overall but even BETTER vs LEFTIES... where they are hitting a decent .753 OPS vs righties (rank: 11th) but rank 2nd vs lefties with a terrific.878 OPS
Yankees are currently hitting .656 OPS vs righties like Shane Baz.
Only slight edge I see for NYY is in the pens.
Two notes: "One swing of the bat" can flip a script in a heartbeat. No guarantees.
and
it's uncanny, but nearly every @#$%&! time I do a writeup like this, the pick LOSES.
Yankees are facing a surprisingly decent and I believe under-rated righty starter in Shane BAZ, who - like RODON - pitches better at home than on the road. He's AT HOME tonight. Even better is he is coming off a "bad"/embarrassing outing (road), and likely to rebound at home. Over the last 7 HOME starts he has not pitched a "bad" outing and held opponents to the following impressively low earned runs:
1 2 2 3 2 1 1
BAZ will be facing an offense, missing a key batter, and averaging just 2.91 rpg over the recent 4 complete series! An offense which fares well vs LEFTIES, but near the bottom of the league when facing RIGHTIES! (past 4 series) BAZ is a righty.
Conversely, lefty RODON - in his first game back from a long stint on the IL - will be facing an ORIOLE offense (see post #8463 above) scoring above league average overall but even BETTER vs LEFTIES... where they are hitting a decent .753 OPS vs righties (rank: 11th) but rank 2nd vs lefties with a terrific.878 OPS
Yankees are currently hitting .656 OPS vs righties like Shane Baz.
Only slight edge I see for NYY is in the pens.
Two notes: "One swing of the bat" can flip a script in a heartbeat. No guarantees.
and
it's uncanny, but nearly every @#$%&! time I do a writeup like this, the pick LOSES.
Yankees are facing a surprisingly decent and I believe under-rated righty starter in Shane BAZ, who - like RODON - pitches better at home than on the road. He's AT HOME tonight. Even better is he is coming off a "bad"/embarrassing outing (road), and likely to rebound at home. Over the last 7 HOME starts he has not pitched a "bad" outing and held opponents to the following impressively low earned runs: 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 BAZ will be facing an offense, missing a key batter, and averaging just 2.91 rpg over the recent 4 complete series! An offense which fares well vs LEFTIES, but near the bottom of the league when facing RIGHTIES! (past 4 series) BAZ is a righty. Conversely, lefty RODON - in his first game back from a long stint on the IL - will be facing an ORIOLE offense (see post #8463 above) scoring above league average overall but even BETTER vs LEFTIES... where they are hitting a decent .753 OPS vs righties (rank: 11th) but rank 2nd vs lefties with a terrific .878 OPS Yankees are currently hitting .656 OPS vs righties like Shane Baz. Only slight edge I see for NYY is in the pens. Two notes: "One swing of the bat" can flip a script in a heartbeat. No guarantees. and it's uncanny, but nearly every @#$%&! time I do a writeup like this, the pick LOSES.
under 4.5 is a solid angle
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
@fubah2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Yankees are facing a surprisingly decent and I believe under-rated righty starter in Shane BAZ, who - like RODON - pitches better at home than on the road. He's AT HOME tonight. Even better is he is coming off a "bad"/embarrassing outing (road), and likely to rebound at home. Over the last 7 HOME starts he has not pitched a "bad" outing and held opponents to the following impressively low earned runs: 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 BAZ will be facing an offense, missing a key batter, and averaging just 2.91 rpg over the recent 4 complete series! An offense which fares well vs LEFTIES, but near the bottom of the league when facing RIGHTIES! (past 4 series) BAZ is a righty. Conversely, lefty RODON - in his first game back from a long stint on the IL - will be facing an ORIOLE offense (see post #8463 above) scoring above league average overall but even BETTER vs LEFTIES... where they are hitting a decent .753 OPS vs righties (rank: 11th) but rank 2nd vs lefties with a terrific .878 OPS Yankees are currently hitting .656 OPS vs righties like Shane Baz. Only slight edge I see for NYY is in the pens. Two notes: "One swing of the bat" can flip a script in a heartbeat. No guarantees. and it's uncanny, but nearly every @#$%&! time I do a writeup like this, the pick LOSES.
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