🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Twins are already without their top slugger vs righties (JEFFERS) and today might be w/o their #2 best slugger vs righties (BUXTON).....not confirmed either way yet for their 2pm start...

Twins currently listed around -148 -151 or so,  which I will consider if he is CONFIRMED in.  Recommend watching this line to see  if it drops ...

@fubah2

Watch the game total of 8.5 as well.  If it moves down he is likely OUT, since as we know, not all 9 positions on the lineup card are of equal weighting when it comes to anticipated run production.  Key bats (like BUXTON) are a much greater loss to the rpg projection

D-Day, June 06:

     HOT STREAK WARNING! 

                                    The MIZ,  Brewers

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  12-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! 

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided.  Best to avoid!

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't guarantee his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe!   You decide.

Oddly, the line on CUBS has actually risen ... 

You are ab absolute legend! Great work! Appreciate what you do...hope good things come your way

 I have the  Cinci @ meet me in St.Louis game as a virtual "coin-flipper"......maybe a very tiny edge to the hometown Cards...very tiny...

OTOH, as a coin-flipper game, the REDS are not getting enough PLUS $$$ to justify them for my "value bet" status either.... Typically need to see around +120 or greater...

PASS

Although reliever FISHER is listed as the starter for the Blew-it Jays, actually Spencer MILES is expected to pitch bulk relief.  He got beat up at Baltimore last game 

I have this game rated as a coin-flipper but with no real value either team...

Trevor Larnach (L) LF
Brooks Lee (S) 3B
Kody Clemens (L) 1B
Josh Bell (S) DH
Austin Martin (R) RF
Victor Caratini (S) C
Royce Lewis (R) 2B
Tristan Gray (L) SS
Ryan Kreidler (R) CF

TWINS LINEUP

@LVTruck

   Ahh so.....yep....I see the line on TWINS has dropped 11 pts already and the total is trending under

With their top TWO bats vs righties out, I've lowered my estimated rpg significantly, and while I still show TWINS with a small edge, it certainly isn't enough FOR ME to risk anything over -110

Pitty @BRAVES   = coin-flipper;  no significant edge either team in estimated runs

Despite their obvious woes the Cardiac CUBS should have an edge today of about +0.8 to +1.0 runs or so.

I would likely risk a bet on them ONLY IF their line was down around -115 to -122 or less

Bad idea...

CWS +119 @pinn  "value bet"   ...actually show CWS with a tiny +0.2 edge here

Altuve back in the ASTROS lineup...

BOL on your plays Fubah!!

TY sir and BoL with your bets today!! 

NATS +124 @pinn  "value bet"    ...actually show a tiny +0.2 edge here too

 *REMINDER: My "value" bets are NOT EXPECTED TO WIN!!!  WRONG!  I'm taking *significant* PLUS $$$ on bonafide "coin-flippers" and anticipating my wins vs losses by the end of the season to be about 50/50.  They are coin-flips!   I do not expect to win, but rather hope to split as man as possible so that I earn profit on the difference - since ALL these "value" bets must be PLUS $$$ of around +120 or thereabouts and up! 

TY and BoL with your TAMPA bet today! 

Good luck today Fubah,that invitation is still open to tour the packer stadium  and the city. on me!

Fair breeze out to center in Philly today, with mediocre pitching anticipated...

I have this game measured for about 9.5 to 11. 5 runs