🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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          MEMORIAL DAY 

                  "Why do you like them so much?!" 

              "Because they stand on a wall,  and say,

  'Nothing's gonna hurt you tonight. Not on my watch!' "

Tampa -111  @pinn             ...thin edge of +0.6 runs just makes the cut for regular bet

@fubah2

Keep up the great work!!

MEMORIAL DAY:

  HOT STREAK WARNING! 

                          MISIOROWSKI,  Brewers

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  10-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided.  Best to avoid!

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe! You decide.

 Worthy of note,  the starter is NOT the whole team!

Despite no bad outings in 10 starts by Misiorowski,

the Brewers as a team only won 5 of his starts!  

So even if he has yet another GOOD outing, 50/50 chance?!?! 

@fubah2

 His last 4 starts 24.1 IP and 0.00 ERA

@fubah2

 Not worth the price of admission!

@trust-me

 Don't be such a doubting Thomas..  

...and 3 of those 5 losses were AT HOME -

despite him pitching well in those losses!!!!!

       vs  .472 Toronto  (10 - 16 road team)

       vs  .509 Pittsburgh  (14 - 13 road team)

       vs  .596 Padres  (15 - 8 road team)

Today they face .569 St.Louis  (16 - 9 road team)

No doubt he *WILL* pitch well again today, but the point is, even if he does as expected, that does *NOT* translate into a high % chance of Brewers winning the game!

5 wins and 5 losses in Misiorowski's 10 starts, pitching very well in all of them!

@fubah2

Sunday, May 24 results:

L  Sea/KC un 9.0 -134 alt-total@pinn *BB

0 - 1   -1.34u     [0 - 1 *BB]

39 - 16 last 8 days

That loss Sunday drops my YTD with *Best Bets to:
   72 - 40    62%   (+7289  vs  -5553 from 40 losers)

Rangers -116 @pinn   *BB          

@fubah2

 Sounds good...  -=)))

Yeah....hopefully.....but my TEXAS bet was made when the lineup card showed that JUNG was probable. He is their TOP BAT vs righties, and now I learn he is out.....which likely reduces RANGERS run production significantly - almost close to a run.... Yeesh.  I dunno now....   Trying to decide what to do, as this doesn't look to be such a great play anymore...

In fact, upon further review, Astros have 4 bats in the lineup tonight hitting over .275 vs righties.  Rangers have just 2. Game may be a one run win either way, not worthy of *BB status....

i still have the Rangers with about a +0.6 to +0.7 run edge (due to pitching) but it's not as good  

Have Cleveland for a +0.9 run edge

... but at such a large price, that edge is not worth the risk

@fubah2

 Good call it seems!

On the one hand Washington scores more runs than any other team in MLB...

OTOH, Washington gives up more runs than any other team in MLB... 

....and sure enough TEXAS already trails in the first inning  And it looks like they are about to BOTCH a gift of 3 walks and leave the 1st inning still down 0 - 1

Had I known their TOP BATTER vs righties would be OUT tonight, I dunno this would even make a bet - and certainly NOT a *BestBet! 

This just underscores the wisdom to wait to confirm lineups shortly before gametimes.

No hits by either team through 3 innings

Only run was a hit batter that stole second, got to 3rd on a groundout, then scored on a sac fly.

1 run with no hits.

Then a solo HR to a served up pitch to Alvarez.

I like the play and the Rangers bats should wake up.

Still time.

Rangers are done game over damn I'm screwed 

Yep -- I jinxed that 

Lesson learned

Again