🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

@countrybob

 What is wrong with you people?

Trouble is if they postpone it they would be unlikely to get it in Saturday or their 2nd game as it is expected to rain constantly all day! 

@fubah2

 Suppose to be a good start Baltimore no delay 

Hmmm....okay....reading the weather network shows light rain throughout the game but it's likely to late now to call it off with people arriving at the park, TV crews, etc, etc....

In that case, and being aware of the starter change to AKIN:

Orioles -124 @pinn      [but NOT a *BB!  as just barely makes the cut for a bet at this price]

Starter for TWINS, Prielipp, who  is  a GOOD pitcher with GOOD numbers, just imploded in the first inning, allowing 5 on base (4 hits!)  and 4 earned runs......

 GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...

So did the pitcher for Dodgers

EXACTLY!   Wroblewski (Dodgers) is a VERY GOOD pitcher with great numbers,

but tonight, in just one inning,

allowed 7 on base and 4 earned runs, to register a bad outing.

GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...

@fubah2

!!

Supposed to rain all week here in lower Bama!

UGHH ....after a hot streak - as per usual - regression appears and will hit into a bunch of losses this weekend, starting with tonight. 

Mind you these "value bets" which are going to lose tonight, as explained a couple times in previous days,  isn't a big issue because they are coin-flips to begin with -- there's absolutely NO expectation to win any given coin-flip....Over time they should move toward a mean of 50/50 - but PROFIT nicely! 

And now another VERY GOOD starter implodes in the first inning almost assuring a loss for his team as deGROM (Texas) allows 5 on base, 2 homers and 4 earned runs before even getting a third out!! 

  GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...

Another EXCELLENT pitcher, starting tonight had a good game personally -- but his Phillies team at -175 was overpriced JUST BECAUSE OF THE PITCHING MATCHUP ALONE -  and sure enough THEY LOST!

@fubah2

 It's all good, my man, you're doing GREAT!  A few losses come w/ many Wins~>   

. . . . . . . .??

@ZipYourLib

 The "??" was suppose to be a "Beer Glass," it Got Censored.. 

Thank GOD it's FRIDAY!

 L  CUBS -137 @pinn  *BB   ...estimated runs: 4.4  vs  2.5
W Tampa +133 @pinn "value bet"  ...coin-flipper 50/50 chance
W Twins +137 @pinn  "value bet"  ... 49% chance; BOS has only +0.2 edge
 L  Pitty +142 @pinn  "value bet"    ...coin-flipper!... only 50% chance to win
 L  LIVE BET bot 8th 2 - 4, no out/no on: Hou/Cubs ov 6.5 -130 @B365
W Orioles -124 @pinn           ... just barely makes the cut for a bet at this price

pending....Texas -157 @pinn *BB      ...I have Texas with a solid +2.0 runs edge

@trust-me 

@Ramanujan 

@RayRayK  

@googotts  

@Fuse  

@countrybob 

@finsterbaby 

@OO7CRUSHER 

@TDHCentral 

@ZipYourLib 

TY folks  and BoL to you all with your bets Saturday! 

@fubah2

lease post early. I want to follow and I have a strong feeling you're about to sweep the board.

@fubah2

 Thanks you as well have a good one no matter what ur doing.

@fubah2 

Thanks my man..! 

Interesting stat . . . 

While I only give modest weighting to a pitcher's ERA stat (WHIP, frequency, venue, and quality of opponent are more important imho) nevertheless I keep a record of each starter's ERA each day (if a one-inning reliever starts in front of a the main BULK inning pitcher, I use the bulk inning dude's ERA stat)

At the end of the night I tally the wins by the teams with SPs who had a significantly better ERA than his counterpart (disregarding AAA callups or any starters with only 3 starts or less) Usually meaning one SP is about a full run ERA better (like 2.50 vs 3.50 and so on) but it's a subjective call when the numbers are closer, and often I just call it too close and a wash...

But when I have subjectively determined that one SP has a significantly better ERA:

                 70 - 45 

since Monday May 11 thru last night. 

You decide for yourself how much meaning/validity this ratio may hold in coming matchups.  Keep in mind that in almost all matchups with a significant difference the better ERA is laying heavier juice as the fav (never a dog)

@fubah2

 There is no way halos score 9 runs again I say maybe 3 .or 4 tops we always hit degrom if you look back just an observation I see with the halos but Texas that line up ain’t all that Bol today 

@Deejsurge

 Geeè thanks why dont you try to learn yourself that's problem with some people they love to follow the easy route and then ask to be easier so he can follow them lmao Good one anything else maybe a secretary to jot it down 4 you. Peace brother all good

@trust-me

 You can't fix lazy and stupid 

Surprised he didn't ask him to put the plays in for him

Lol

Recent notable losses by teams having the significantly better ERA to start:

Philly  - Sanchez 1.82  ....even though he pitched VERY WELL!

Dodgers - Wroblewski 2.50  ....imploded early

Texas  - deGrom 3.02  .... imploded 1st inning;  third "bad outing" last 4 starts

A's  - Springs 3.93 vs 5.01 Buehler  

LAA  - Soriano 2.41  ...although he pitched very well

Detroit - Mize 2.43 vs 3.40 Cantillo 

Wash - Cavalli 4.05 vs  5.50 Peterson

Cards - McGreevy 2.10 vs  4.40 Mlodzinski