Posted:
#4651
@countrybob
What is wrong with you people?
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#4652
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Rain outs tonight? StL @Cinci high risk Det @Balt high risk I still don't see a cancellation on the game @Balt. Raining now and expected to continue?
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Rain outs tonight? StL @Cinci high risk Det @Balt high risk I still don't see a cancellation on the game @Balt. Raining now and expected to continue?
Trouble is if they postpone it they would be unlikely to get it in Saturday or their 2nd game as it is expected to rain constantly all day! 
Posted:
#4654
Quote Originally Posted by trust-me:
@fubah2 Suppose to be a good start Baltimore no delay
@fubah2 Suppose to be a good start Baltimore no delay
Hmmm....okay....reading the weather network shows light rain throughout the game but it's likely to late now to call it off with people arriving at the park, TV crews, etc, etc....
In that case, and being aware of the starter change to AKIN:
Orioles -124 @pinn [but NOT a *BB! 
as just barely makes the cut for a bet at this price]
Posted:
#4658
Quote Originally Posted by googotts:
So did the pitcher for Dodgers
So did the pitcher for Dodgers
EXACTLY! Wroblewski (Dodgers) is a VERY GOOD pitcher with great numbers,
but tonight, in just one inning,
allowed 7 on base and 4 earned runs, to register a bad outing.
GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...
!!
....after a hot streak - as per usual - regression appears and will hit into a bunch of losses this weekend, 
Posted:
#4661
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
UGHH ....after a hot streak - as per usual - regression appears and will hit into a bunch of losses this weekend, starting with tonight.
UGHH ....after a hot streak - as per usual - regression appears and will hit into a bunch of losses this weekend, starting with tonight.
Mind you these "value bets" which are going to lose tonight, as explained a couple times in previous days, isn't a big issue because they are coin-flips to begin with -- there's absolutely NO expectation to win any given coin-flip....Over time they should move toward a mean of 50/50 - but PROFIT nicely! 
Posted:
#4662
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by googotts: So did the pitcher for Dodgers
Quote Originally Posted by googotts: So did the pitcher for Dodgers
EXACTLY! Wroblewski (Dodgers) is a VERY GOOD pitcher with great numbers, but tonight, in just one inning, allowed 7 on base and 4 earned runs, to register a bad outing.
GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...
And now another VERY GOOD starter implodes in the first inning almost assuring a loss for his team as deGROM (Texas) allows 5 on base, 2 homers and 4 earned runs before even getting a third out!!
GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...
Posted:
#4663
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by googotts: So did the pitcher for Dodgers EXACTLY! Wroblewski (Dodgers) is a VERY GOOD pitcher with great numbers, but tonight, in just one inning, allowed 7 on base and 4 earned runs, to register a bad outing. GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing... And now another VERY GOOD starter implodes in the first inning almost assuring a loss for his team as deGROM (Texas) allows 5 on base, 2 homers and 4 earned runs before even getting a third out!! GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by googotts: So did the pitcher for Dodgers EXACTLY! Wroblewski (Dodgers) is a VERY GOOD pitcher with great numbers, but tonight, in just one inning, allowed 7 on base and 4 earned runs, to register a bad outing. GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing... And now another VERY GOOD starter implodes in the first inning almost assuring a loss for his team as deGROM (Texas) allows 5 on base, 2 homers and 4 earned runs before even getting a third out!! GOOD starters, with GOOD numbers can have a "bad outing" at any time - regardless who they are facing...
Another EXCELLENT pitcher, starting tonight had a good game personally -- but his Phillies team at -175 was overpriced JUST BECAUSE OF THE PITCHING MATCHUP ALONE - and sure enough THEY LOST!
??
Posted:
#4666
Thank GOD it's FRIDAY!
L CUBS -137 @pinn *BB 
...estimated runs: 4.4 vs 2.5
W Tampa +133 @pinn "value bet" ...coin-flipper 50/50 chance
W Twins +137 @pinn "value bet" ... 49% chance; BOS has only +0.2 edge
L Pitty +142 @pinn "value bet" ...coin-flipper!... only 50% chance to win
L LIVE BET bot 8th 2 - 4, no out/no on: Hou/Cubs ov 6.5 -130 @B365
W Orioles -124 @pinn ... just barely makes the cut for a bet at this price
pending....Texas -157 @pinn *BB ...I have Texas with a solid +2.0 runs edge
Posted:
#4671
Interesting stat . . .
While I only give modest weighting to a pitcher's ERA stat (WHIP, frequency, venue, and quality of opponent are more important imho) nevertheless I keep a record of each starter's ERA each day (if a one-inning reliever starts in front of a the main BULK inning pitcher, I use the bulk inning dude's ERA stat)
At the end of the night I tally the wins by the teams with SPs who had a significantly better ERA than his counterpart (disregarding AAA callups or any starters with only 3 starts or less) Usually meaning one SP is about a full run ERA better (like 2.50 vs 3.50 and so on) but it's a subjective call when the numbers are closer, and often I just call it too close and a wash...
But when I have subjectively determined that one SP has a significantly better ERA:
70 - 45
since Monday May 11 thru last night.
You decide for yourself how much meaning/validity this ratio may hold in coming matchups. Keep in mind that in almost all matchups with a significant difference the better ERA is laying heavier juice as the fav (never a dog)
Posted:
#4675
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Interesting stat . . . While I only give modest weighting to a pitcher's ERA stat (WHIP, frequency, venue, and quality of opponent are more important imho) nevertheless I keep a record of each starter's ERA each day (if a one-inning reliever starts in front of a the main BULK inning pitcher, I use the bulk inning dude's ERA stat) At the end of the night I tally the wins by the teams with SPs who had a significantly better ERA than his counterpart (disregarding AAA callups or any starters with only 3 starts or less) Usually meaning one SP is about a full run ERA better (like 2.50 vs 3.50 and so on) but it's a subjective call when the numbers are closer, and often I just call it too close and a wash... But when I have subjectively determined that one SP has a significantly better ERA:
Interesting stat . . . While I only give modest weighting to a pitcher's ERA stat (WHIP, frequency, venue, and quality of opponent are more important imho) nevertheless I keep a record of each starter's ERA each day (if a one-inning reliever starts in front of a the main BULK inning pitcher, I use the bulk inning dude's ERA stat) At the end of the night I tally the wins by the teams with SPs who had a significantly better ERA than his counterpart (disregarding AAA callups or any starters with only 3 starts or less) Usually meaning one SP is about a full run ERA better (like 2.50 vs 3.50 and so on) but it's a subjective call when the numbers are closer, and often I just call it too close and a wash... But when I have subjectively determined that one SP has a significantly better ERA:
70 - 45
since Monday May 11 thru last night. You decide for yourself how much meaning/validity this ratio may hold in coming matchups. Keep in mind that in almost all matchups with a significant difference the better ERA is laying heavier juice as the fav (never a dog)
Recent notable losses by teams having the significantly better ERA to start:
Philly - Sanchez 1.82 ....even though he pitched VERY WELL!
Dodgers - Wroblewski 2.50 ....imploded early
Texas - deGrom 3.02 .... imploded 1st inning; third "bad outing" last 4 starts
A's - Springs 3.93 vs 5.01 Buehler
LAA - Soriano 2.41 ...although he pitched very well
Detroit - Mize 2.43 vs 3.40 Cantillo
Wash - Cavalli 4.05 vs 5.50 Peterson
Cards - McGreevy 2.10 vs 4.40 Mlodzinski
Hot Forum Topics
