🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

  It's HUMPING DAY!  

Blew-it Jays +124 @pinn   "value bet"  ...coin-flipper; I'll always take decent PLUS money

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

It's HUMPING DAY!      

Blew-it Jays +124 @pinn   "value bet"  ...coin-flipper; I'll always take decent PLUS money

Braves +120  @FD (Perez must go as listed)  *BB    ...I actually have them for a +.09 rpg edge!

Cardinals -106 @pinn  ...if Pallante does not implode Cards should prevail

@fubah2

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

1 - 3  *Best Bets on Tuesday  

Twinkies -130 @pinn   *BB    ...I have them for a fraction more than a full run edge

Wednesday, May 06:

  HOT STREAK WARNING!

                                WARREN, NYY

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  7-game  HOT STREAK, 

                    WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

       ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. 

A BAD DAY happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided. 

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.

Cubbies -162 @pinn  *BB      ... about +1.6 run edge ...I think 

@fubah2

 Going against crusher ..hmmm 

I have DODGERS for just over a full run edge but that edge is not enough in my capping to justify 2 to 1 odds...

I have DODGERS for just over a full run edge but that edge is not enough in my capping to justify 2 to 1 odds...

PHILLIES  have a fair edge over the A's of about .7 runs but not enough to justify such heavy ML odds risk.

@fubah2

 Hard rock has Astros +2.5, seems like pretty good value according to your numbers??

Your the Man! 

Feeding them followers cash daily.

Without a fuss you deserve a Metal Sir for all you do.

Send cash to me ill make sure he @fubah gets every penny unless he wants a go fund me page seriosly.The very least we can do im not using you these last few days trying my own to see how ill do Thanks and G.L

So this coin-flipper is going the way of Tampa......another loss but that's fine in this case because over time I expect to just about split all my coin-flipper bets ....but since I only take the PLUS money, I should profit. Long season.  

...and sure enough, Pallante *DID* implode, in the first half inning, so CARDS will lose 

Adding:

PADRES +102  @pinn  (Rodriguez must start)

Minnesota -111 @pinn   ....2nd bet

TY and BoL with your games today! 

Quote Originally Posted by TheVigPodcast:

And a big BoL to you too! 

 His streak ends at 7  and his Yankees LOSE at -171 (close)

 I'll try to update a running list of these starter "HOT STREAK" warnings/results at the point any starter achieves 7 consecutive starts WITHOUT a "BAD" outing..

NOTE: this is about starters on a streak of personal performances, regardless whether his team ultimately wins or not.  However, probability suggests starter HOT STREAKS get very dicey after reaching 7 (usually a significant fav then) and those games are best skipped until *AFTER* the starter records a BAD performance

May 06: WARREN (NYY -171) BAD outing; his streak of 7 ends....  team loss
May 05: ELDER (NYY -136) GOOD outing, team win; his HOT streak continues to 8
May 04: SORIANO (LAA -171) BAD outing; his streak of 7 ends.... team loss

 Another significant LOSING day (Wednesday) .... 2 - 5  [1 - 2 *BB]

            Tuesday was much worse though:  2 - 9   [1 - 3 *BB] 

            So, just   4 - 14  [2 - 5 *BB] the past 2 days 

Hoping the early season volatility swings back...

Thursday (as always, listed pitchers at the time of my post):

Tex/NYY over 8 -125  *BB

NYY -150   *BB    ....very thin edge, but part of new angle I am tracking

Wash -114  *BB    ....very thin edge, but part of 2nd new angle I am tracking

KC -139   *BB    ...could be way off AGAIN but my capping says a +1.6 run edge

"Cardiac" CUBS -187  *BB  ...could be way off AGAIN but my capping says a +1.5 run edge....also part of new angle I am tracking

Colorado +127    "value bet"  ....virtual coin-flipper