UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

If it's not broke don't fix it. Look at your unit total

@DR25

I get it & thank you! 

Sometimes in my write ups I give a lean or a pick, but later in the week I flip after seeing additional info or something in the market that makes me bet the other side that I initially mentioned in my write up. 

I would feel bad if someone bet something after seeing my write ups & then seen me on the opposite side come fight night. It’s a tough balance. 

Like I said, my research and market analysis won’t change & I will still post picks come fight night, but for now I’ll stop posting my initial write ups. 

pure handicapping

I will still move forward with my write ups after further thought. Just keep in mind they aren't my final thoughts and I may change my position right up until the fight's 

Blanchfield vs Aldrich 

Opening fight of the night, and its the most lopsided fight in terms of odds on the whole card. Blanchfield is 2-0 since joining the UFC & she is coming off an impressive victory late last year. She has very good grappling, and in her last fight she did showcase some of her wrestling ability. She is young and improving, and I expect her too continue too show improvements as her career progresses. Her striking is OK, but her path to victory is her grappling, and I expect the same in this fight. In comes Aldrich, who is riding a 3 fight win streak. She is a volume striker who uses forward pressure and volume as an asset. She does have solid take downs and pretty good top control if she can get on top of her opponent. She has 10 UFC fights and 9 of them have gone to decision, mainly because she is conservative and rarely puts herself in harms way, and rarely fights outside of her very conservative fighting style. If Aldrich wants to win this fight she will have to fight aggressive and get in the face of Blanchfield, but that will be a tall task. I don't see much in terms of betting this fight, so as of right now I will pass. 

Michailidis vs Fakhretdinov 

This should be an entertaining fight. Michailidis is 1-2 in the UFC & is coming off a KO loss last year. He is a decent striker who marches forward and looks too close the distance and work his opponent too the ground. While he tries closing the distance, he does have wild looping power shots, so that is always something too watch for if your fighting Michailidis. He does have decent grappling, so it will be interesting to see how he holds up against the Russian prospect. In comes Fakhretdinov, who is making his official UFC debut. He is a wrestler, and a pretty solid one at that. He has solid striking with very heavy hands. He likes to use combinations too keep his opponent off balance and thinking, and eventually shoots for take downs. He does a good job at controlling his opponent and is always looking too land big damage while on top. His record is filled with a lot of light competition, but he has dominated that competition and I would expect the same here. I like Fakhretdinov in this fight, but I'm not sure how I will bet him just yet. 

Molina vs Zhumagulov 

This should be a good fight. Molina is 2-0 since joining the UFC. He is a very good volume striker who uses kicks nicely to manage his range and wear down his opponent. He is an aggressive fighter and has shown the willingness too stand and trade and get himself into a brawl. He likes too stay in the face of his opponent and looks too keep the pressure on and eventually wearing his opponent down as the fight progresses. Zhumagulov is 1-3 in the UFC. He is coming off a KO loss last December to Kape. He is a wrestler with solid striking and good power in his hands. He uses his big power shots to keep his opponent off balance and eventually set up his take downs. His entries aren't the cleanest and most effective, but he is relentless in his pursuit of the take down, and uses his chain wrestling too eventually secure the take down. Molina will be the more effective and aggressive fighter on the feet, but I think the the relentless take down attempts & wrestling could play a factor in this fight. One of Molina's main assets are his kicks, and against someone like Zhumagulov, that could just be another avenue to get him too the ground if he catches the kicks and work in take downs that way. I lean Zhumagulov at +150, but Molina is a tough out and I'm not ready too commit just yet. 

Gravely vs Munoz 

Interesting fight here. Gravely is a wrestler, and that is always his strength in his fights. Like most wrestlers he uses his striking & volume too set up his take downs and I expect the same in this fight. When he gets on top he does have very good control and top pressure and has solid ground & pound. He averages just under 7 take downs per fight which is a crazy stat. One issue with him is his cardio does fade as the fight progresses, and his submission defense isn't great, and against Munoz that could be an issues if he gets careless on the mat. Munoz is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is a BJJ black belt and has very slick submissions on the mat. His striking is just average and he mixes in kicks nicely too manage range and keep his opponent thinking. This is a classic case of wrestler vs submission artist and I'm not sure who too trust in this fight. I like Munoz upside but trusting someone who will spend a lot of time on his back is hard, and taking Gravely at minus odds doesn't sit well with me either. As of right now I will pass, unless something sticks out too me later in the week. 

Saint-Denis vs Stolze

Two guys looking for their first UFC wins. Saint-Denis lost his debut last year. He is a wrestler with nicely timed take downs. He does have solid control and can lock up submissions if the opportunity presents itself. His striking is average, but he does carry power in his hands. In his debut he looked very fresh early, but faded as the fight went on and his defense faded and he became a sitting duck and got hit a lot which is a real concern. In comes Stolze who is 0-2 since joining the UFC. He is a good striker with a solid kick boxing background. He has nice kicks and mixes them in nicely with his attack. He is a capable grappler, but his striking is his strength, so if he can manage to stay on his feet, he should have the advantage in this fight. I expect Saint-Denis to have success early in this fight & could find himself a finish in the early rounds, but if Stolze can stay in the fight and work back to his feet as the fight goes on, he could start finding success and eventually take over the fight. I will monitor these odds as the week rolls on before making a final decision. 

Osbourne vs Adashev 

Striker vs Striker. This is a big fight for both of these guys in terms of career trajectory. Osbourne is 2-2 in the UFC and will look to stack wins here. He is a striker who likes to fight at range. He does have legitimate power for the division and has real finishing ability. He has grappling in his back pocket, but he prefers too strike, and this fight should be a striking match up. Osbourne used to fight at 145, but this is his 3rd fight at 125. He did win his last fight, but didn't look great, so keep that in mind if your thinking of backing him at these odds. In comes Adashev who is 1-2 in the UFC. He got his first UFC victory last summer VIA decision. He is a kick boxer with good striking and solid power in both hands. His ground game is pretty raw, but he is a threat on the feet and his power is something too monitor. I give the technical striking advantage to Adashev in this fight, and I think he will throw the more accurate and more clean shots in this fight. Osbourne does have his grappling in his bag of tricks and that might be wise to use in this fight, but I don't trust him enough too use it. If this is striker vs striker, I give the advantage to Adashev and like the odds. I will make a final decision later in the week, but as of right now I lean Adashev on the ML. 

Jackson vs Argueta 

Short notice fight for both guys. Jackson is on his 2nd stint in the UFC & is riding a 2 fight win streak. He is coming off a submission win just 2 months ago. He has good grappling and does a good job at taking advantage of his opponents mistakes and short falls. His striking is decent and is willing to slug it out and make a fight dirty. His most obvious flaw is his take down defense, which sits at just 35%, and that could be an issue against someone like Argueta who will most certainly look too grapple and look for take downs. Argueta is making his UFC debut on short notice. He fought just last month. His natural weight class is 135 & is moving up to 145 in this fight. He is a grappler, and that is exactly what he will look to do in mostly all of his fights. He looks to close distance and tie up his opponent and eventually work his opponent down to the mat. If he gets you down he does have good control and will look for submissions. I think if Argueta pushes the pace and controls the exchanges he could find success, but against the experienced Jackson, that will be a tall task. Jackson is favored and for good reason, but his current price tag of -600 is very odd in my opinion. This will most likely be a pass for me, unless something changes later in the week. 

Solecki vs Da Silva 

Exciting fight here. Solecki is 3-1 since joining the UFC & is coming off his first loss in the UFC late last year. He is a very good wrestler with good grappling. He does have clean boxing and can use it when he needs it. He is very slick on the ground and has very good control and submissions. He has very nice transitions which allows him too control his opponent for long periods of the fight and start getting his opponent frustrated and behind on the score cards. Da Silva is making his return after almost a 2 year lay off. He is a very good striker with good power in his hands. He has a creative striking style and has very good speed and movement. He does have grappling as an asset with well timed take downs, but his striking is the most dangerous part of his fighting style. In this fight I expect Da Silva to be the more dangerous fighter, but Solecki has the style and skill set too neutralize an explosive fighter, and that could very well be the case in this fight. I think these odds are wide, but Solecki is hard too bet against with his wrestle heavy game plan and ability to control fighters for long periods. I think this fight has a real shot at ending inside the distance, and the odds are very manageable at -105. 

Herrig vs Kowalkeiwicz

Late add to the card which is very odd. Battle of the long losing streaks. Herrig is on a 3 fight losing streak & her last win came back in 2017. She is a well rounded fighter who is average in all areas but not great in any area. She has her most success when she can bully her opponent and establish herself as the more physical fighter. She hasn't fought in almost 2 years, and in that lay off she has dealt with some injuries, so keep that in mind. Kowalkeiwicz is 0-5 in her last 5. Her last win comes back in 2018 against Herrig, so this is a rematch. She is a kick boxer with solid technical striking. During her career she has fought the very best and has plenty of experience. The odds have this as a coin flip, and that is exactly what this fight is. I lean Kowalkeiwicz as a slight underdog in what should be an underwhelming fight. 

Menifield vs Mozharov 

Very odd fight here. A lot of moving parts surrounding this fight. Mozharov had his record changed mid week, and since that happened he's moved from a +130 underdog to +200/+220. He is making his UFC debut but like I mentioned, his past is very unknown and very fishy. He is a striker with solid power. His technique is not great and he relies on his pure strength to carry him in his fights. He is from Ukraine, and we all know what is happening in that country, and if you follow  Mozharov on social media, you see he is very flashy which is not a great look for someone who is from a war torn country. Menifield lost his last fight VIA decision. He is a powerful striker who is always looking for the KO. He is very athletic with good speed & has very solid take down defense. His one knock is his cardio, but his last 2 fights went the distance and he has shown some improvements in that area. The easy and most obvious pick is Menifield ML or inside distance but the crazy line movements and crazy action surrounding this fight has me very sketched out. I will wait until fight night and see how the market looks on this fight. 

Botelho vs Silva 

Solid fight here. Botelho will look to get things back on track after losing her last 2 fights. She is a solid striker with a creative set of attacks. She has shown improvements in some of her fights, but is still a pretty raw prospect in terms of MMA. She has fight IQ issues in some her of her fights that cost her points and positions, and that is a huge concern when your looking to back a fighter. Silva is making her official UFC debut after a submission victory on the contender series. She is a grappler, and a pretty good one at that. She likes to keep a high & tight guard and works too close the distance of her opponent. If she is able to do so, she looks to tie up her opponent and use her strength and physicality to get her opponent to the ground. She has good awareness on the mat and is always looking to establish a dominate position then start hunting for submissions. I like Silva in this fight, and her current price is manageable at -120. I will wait and see how the odds look on fight night, but I will most likely be backing Silva in this fight. 

Trizano vs Almeida 

This should be an entertaining fight. Trizano is coming off a decision loss earlier this year. He is a good striker who likes to fight with a high motor and he likes too keep the pressure on his opponent. He has solid power & he does a good good at reserving that power and carrying it into the later rounds. He does a good job at mixing up his strikes to the body and likes to wear down his opponent. He has good fight IQ & is aware of his surroundings and understands where he sits at in the fight. Almeida is making his UFC debut after losing on the contender series back in 2021. He like Trizano is a striker. He is a power striker who is always looking for the big shot, but does leave himself exposed at times and his technique isn't the greatest. He likes to make fights dirty and will not shy away from a brawl. If he has his opponent hurt, he likes to pounce and does a good job at finishing if he has the opportunity. This is striker vs striker, and I give the edge to the more seasoned and more technical fighter Trizano. I'm not sure how or if I will bet this fight just yet. 

Ige vs Evloev 

Co main event. Ige will look to get back on track after losing his last 2 fights. He is a well rounded fighter with a lot of experience in the UFC. He is a kick boxer with good speed and solid power. He is a very durable fighter and has yet to be finished in his professional career. He did show the ability to take down his opponent in some of his recent fights, so he might want to mix things up in this fight to keep  Evloev off balance and thinking about more then just the striking. Evloev is 5-0 since joining the UFC and is 15-0 overall in his career. He is a very good wrestler with clean striking. He does a good job at using his striking to set up his take downs, and has very nice level changes and times his shots very well. He averages just over 4 take downs per fight, and I would expect a lot of the same in this fight. The odds clearly show Evloev will be the more dominate fighter and for good reason. I like Evloev to get the job done here, but the current odds make it hard to find any value. 

Volkov vs Rozenstruik 

Main event. Volkov is 3-2 in his last 5 and is coming off a submission loss last year. He is a long striker with fast hands. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he uses his volume very well and fights at range and has decent kicks in his bag of tricks. His volume is a real problem for fighters who cant close the distance on him and he will pick apart his opponent if they cant get inside the pocket and tie him up. He does have good fight  IQ which is another solid asset for him. In his last 2 fights he didn't look great, so I'm sure he will be motivated to get back on track here. In comes Rozenstruik who is coming off a decision loss late last year. He is a powerful striker with legitimate finishing ability. Early in his career he was a counter puncher who looked for his big shots, but recently he has shown the ability to push the pace. I think in this fight if he wants to have success, he will have to do just that. If he sits back and allows Volkov to control the exchanges, it could be a long night. If he has Volkov backing up he could find success, but that will be a tall task. I have no lean on this fight as of right now & might pass all together unless I see something on the weekend. 

GL this weekend my friend

@The_Fist

Best wishes for today

@BigMick87

@paletta007

 Please continue with your write-ups!