Can we talk about Mollydog? Destroying everyone in the NCAAB contest so far?

@tvigilante2020

@tvigilante2020

 Could be a computer programmer and figured a way to hack the system without COVERS knowing

@tvigilante2020

 You are mollydog, you are doing fine. However im not interested in betting 1635 games to win 208. Its not worth the effort.

Mollydog is incredible all around from what I see, but especially incredible in terms of picking the action teams.  I checked my book's current lines against the Covers line from his/her selections.  None of the lines from my book were better than the lines in his/her picks, none!  Most moved 2 to 4 points on his/her selected team or side.  I am not an expert on how up to date Covers keeps their lines, but if they keep them current, Mollydog is picking the "action" team in almost every game, at least today (and there about 18 picks today).  I do realize, if covers lines are slow to update, then a computer program could easily see the line discrepancies and the picks could be placed and this could account for some of the line action.  But this is truly amazing, at least on this small sample size.

Keep up the good work Mollydog, very impressive win pct in both sides and totals considering the number of plays you have made! I will be monitoring your plays.  I certainly can't play this many games with my bankroll, but these picks will offer a good guide on the games I am considering playing. 

He seems to play alot of steam. If you try to follow him you will end up below 50%. 

I agree, I analyzed a couple winning days and based on the closing line he lost multiple games that he got credited for a win.  I think covers is very slow on moving their lines and he sees the line movement from his source (maybe a good source that moves the line early), then makes the play, gets the value in the line and that accounts for most of his advantage.  I do realize that he could be an excellent handicapper and knows the team he will play and then grabs the line when it hits the low point.  His handicapping probably factors in, but the line movement on basically ALL of his games in in his favor, nobody is that good at handicapping that they always pick the steam team, not statistically possible.  So my guess is that he preys on the slow moving covers lines, but certainly can't prove it.

Regardless of how he does it, I agree that by the time his pick is posted (at least from what I have seen), the value is already gone in the line and you will end up less than the break even pct.  For a 10 cent line that pct is about 52.4% and for a 5 cent line is about 51.3%.  It is even less attractive when you consider how many times a day he posts and unless you have some sort of automated solution to grab and play his picks, it will require hours and hours of observation and effort.

@EZMoney777

Not knocking him at all but I'm pretty sure his source along with mine and a lot of other guys is the Don Best screen. You can be pretty successful chasing steam if you know what you are doing. 

And have a lot of time available!

@EZMoney777, @tvigilante2020, et al

I just came across this thread a few days back and took an interest. Mollydog is amazing, I agree totally. To be doing as well as he is in both sides and totals is incredible...not to mention his NBA plays!  But, this morning I noticed something interesting about this situation that's kinda baffling, I'll describe here but first a question: How is it that Mollydog, THE man himself actually posted on this thread, and it looks like no one even acknowledged the guy?!! What's up with that guys?!! Here we are talking about his amazing record and what a superstar he is, then he shows up to say hello and he's ignored!  

Anyway, I've been participating in the contests for a while and I typically make 3-4 passes through the game slates in the morning & afternoon adding some plays with each pass. During my first pass this morning I noticed Mollydog had no plays pending. A while later I was making another pass and now Mollydog's plays were pending.  But even though he'd apparently put in his plays after I had, he somehow had gotten the (favorable) opening lines. There's no way those lines had changed in his favor then gone back to where I'd gotten them. A couple of examples, I played the Hofstra/Towson Under 144.5. Molly got it at 147.5. I played the Pitt/Syracuse under 140.5, Mollydog got in at 142.5. Practically all his plays seemed to have been made with too perfect timing. So how does it happen?

Mollydog, if you see this, I'd appreciate if you could shed some light on it. Don't get me wrong guys, I still think his record is stellar, but how is it that he gets locked in when he does. Maybe he is a line-mover like a few people have said...

Some possible explanations: If he's a Covers insider, it could be that he submits his plays earlier but they're not posted until someone gets around to it. Or if he is actually moving lines, it could be his plays go up with one or more of the major casinos before they are posted on this site...but I'd like to hear from you guys on this. What do you think?

MP2056,

Appreciate the kind words. I'm anything but an insider though (LOL). If you look at the 10+ years on the site, I'd go broke 50 times over. I've just been fortunate to recently work from home over the pandemic period and commit some time into finding some luck and successes. I watched this sites leaders a long time (Webba, Yisman, TMarsh21), who are far more successfully year in and year out then I'll ever be. With that said, I have committed myself to get in front of line moves and have them work for me. That is not always the case, tonight alone, I have several plays I missed before they jumped or dipped. In addition, if I don't like a team everyone is backing (USC versus Stanford tonight), I wait out the line moves until they max out and try to nab the line at it's peak (Stanford opened +4, I waited until it hit +6.5 to play them). Yes, I have too much free time.

Anyway, as I stated in my earlier post, if I can help one player out with a win or two, I've done something good. I wish you success in a field/hobby setup to have you lose. 

@tvigilante2020

 Mollydog could have literally stopped picking @40,000 units and still win.

@EZMoney777

 He probably has software similar to the stock market.

@mollydog  Thanks for the response. The other guys you mention (like webba & Yisman, etc.) are no doubt excellent, but what I see you doing here is amazing! Free time or no, you got a great handle on baskets - college and pro for that matter. It's an intricate, complex landscape and to see someone demonstrate that level of mastery is a trip to say the least. Anytime you're inclined to share a play or two, I'm here bro! 

Just out of curiosity and if you don't mind, what kind of work do you do? I was in corporate HR and I'm always curios about what people - especially gifted people choose to do.

Have a great day!

Just hope that Mollydog is not wasting time in trying to win a prize. I have not gotten paid yet for my June Monthly Survivor contest of $1,000.

@mollydog

 I agree with MP2056 and think you are a little under appreciated in this thread.  I am sure you don't lose any sleep over that, lol.  Please keep up the stellar work and good luck to you.  You are certainly on a great run (and a very long run), especially in college basketball!

I am happy with the success that Mollydog is having and deserves to win being a member of this site since 2009 and this is not to detract anything from what he has accomplished. Glad to see that you are still making plays. Many others who have had a lead would just quit playing. A good book to read is Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb which explains that many make the mistake of thinking that someone who appears to be very good at something but instead it was random luck. I am aware of this so I checked the overall record. Mollydog overall is Minus 1,743,930 units! There is a 10% house edge on the football and basketball. So by betting 550 to win 500, one must pick at a rate of 52.38% in order to come out ahead. I have been a member since 2000 and my results are very close to 50%.

There was a woman on this site about 15 years ago that had a very big lead in baseball. I actually thought that she continued to win the rest of the year. She had gained many followers too. Next year she lost so bad that she closed her account.

If you spot play you may win near 60% but by betting the board, expect the average of around 50%.

OLL5,

Congratulations on the Survivor success in June. Well done. I hope you get things straightened out on the prize end of things. Last year I contacted the "contact Us"# and Colin was awesome in assisting with a prize. Good luck.

MP2056 and EZMoney77,

Appreciate the posts and wish you both the best of luck. MP, I've been blessed to work in sales for a solid company for nearly 30 years. I typically travel, but the pandemic has me working currently from home. This change, albeit temporary, has allowed me to focus on finding some success here. On a great run, but mind you, it's been done before. Webba finished +100k in the NCAAB 2018 season contest. I can only hope to keep the recent momentum, push that record and help a few players along the way.   

Mollydog

@mollydog 

It's a credit to you that you're not coasting, which you could easily do at this point. Wishing you continued success!

@tvigilante2020

 How does Molly get lines with 5 & 6 point differences than the majority. If it’s early lines then tell me what time covers puts those lines out.

@mollydog

 What time of the morning do you get these great point spreads that covers puts out? I want to have some fun with the advantage your getting.

@LouieDaLip

 I will let @Mollydog answer what time he posts his initial picks, but I can tell you after observation over the past 2 weeks or so, he posts picks throughout the day.  Some of his biggest point differences from the current line often come from picks posted later in the day.  So he is either really good at identifying a steam play or he sees the line change and Covers is slow to change, so he gets the line before they update the change.  Based on the number of "steam" type plays he has I would guess it is a combination of both, but almost certainly it has at least something to do with seeing a change somewhere and placing the pick before it is changed on Covers.

No matter what he is doing, it is unbelievably impressive.  The reference to random luck certainly does not apply here.  Not even talking about wins or losses.  At least 90% of his picks close at a line worse than he gets (he gets a LOT of value in almost all picks).  That statistically can't be random, especially based on the number of picks he has made. 

He also sheds some light on why his previous picks have not been profitable, but this season is.  He is working from home now and has time to implement whatever his bet picking algorithm is.  So far this college basketball season has been astonishing (line movements and win/losses).

Does Covers have a way to search for overall win pct over multiple years?  For example, I can go into each successful handicapper, click past seasons, click total, and see what their overall profit is since joining the site.  You can also see a breakdown by year and sport.  I haven't looked at too many contestants, but only found 1 person that shows an overall profit (with a least a few years picks).  That contestant is Yisman who has an amazing overall profit of 540K.  It would be interesting to be able to sort on these overall numbers (high to low of course) and to select a sport and/or range of years.  I couldn't find anywhere to do this selection/sort. 

EzMoney777,

Picks, Consensus Picks, League Money Leaders. From there you can choose your user and it will show history. You can even break it down by sport if you wish. 

To your point, and in my post on the 11th, there are some serious experts on this site. Yisman, Webba and TMarsh21 all have amazing results year in and year out. Love to know what they do and how they continually find success. They make it look easy, where I have worked my tail off to threaten in a specific sport on a rare season that I get on a roll in. That said, I hope to keep the recent momentum I’ve found in hoops this season (finished 6th in WNBA, still picking in the NBA and NCAAB). I’ve lost my shirt over the last week, but am committed to seeing this season through while I have still have some time to focus on it and figure it out. Plus, with XTC310 and Webba in the top 5, no lead is safe IMO. 

LouieDaLip,

I begin breaking down the lines the moment they are released. If the smart money begins moving the number, it’s a quick play or we wait it out to go against the public. Today alone I waited on a handful of plays until late in the day, allowing the lines to max in my favor. Rhode Island +1 and Kansas St +14 are two we waited on to have the line swing several points in our favor. I’ve had a boatload of misses as well. In the Top 5 tonight, I have the absolute worst number on Michigan St. 

It’s a lot of work with the quest for a lot of luck. Fingers crossed I can continue and end the year positive in units. That would be a first.

Mollydog

@mollydog

 Colin is doing nothing for me. I opened an account with Skrill which has about 128 out of 131 one star reviews. I live in the USA and have not been able to talk to one live person connected with Skrill. Their listed international number which I tried cannot be completed as dialed. A chat conversation, said that my account ID did not exist. Got an email from one of them saying that I have to verify my account by giving them my social security number. How can they verify it when I did not give them it when I opened the account? Told Colin of my trouble with Skrill and he just says they are just like any other bank. I cannot name any other legitimate bank or brokerage firm that does not answer their phone.

Their USA number I got by googling Skrill USA is 855-719-2087. Try calling it. It just goes into a loop. Do your due diligence with Skrill and read all the reviews. They are either fraudulent or at best one of the worse money facilitators in the business.

I now have an account, it takes time. Nothing is wrong with Skrill

All I needed was my ID and proof of my living residence.

I live in Canada

I have been following MollyDog and Webba on their picks, but what I don't get is that... In one instance the over/under was 122.5 NCAAB on my line ( SPORT SELECT - Home ), but I see Covers @ 120.5

They don't change it. So I don't know if I should pick the Over or Under

Today's spread 

MOLLYDOG'S PICK

my spread was 14.5 so I picked KSU  I just wished MollyDog can send me 6 FORSURE picks! 

7 of my last 8 tickets I had 1 wrong the other was 3 wrong.