Any good strategies for following contests?

I have tried a few different strategies for using the contests here to make real money but havent had much success.  granted i havent given anything in particular enough time. im not talking about following a particular capper. because they vary from year to year..  here are some of the strategies ive tried so far.

playing the number 1 cappers picks rated by either sides or totals. examples would be in hockey robert78lodz is the top rated sides hockey capper so i would follow his picks and jaybosstien is the top rated nhl totals player right now so i would follow those. same for nba or mlb or any sport. i know mollydog is a beast on basketball but he only or mostly plays steam so thats unfollowable. ive also tried making a consensus using the top handicappers in their sport but my results so far have been to play the opposite when the top few cappers are all on the same side. granted i would need to do a bit more research before i start putting any money on that. 

years ago i followed a contest with terrific results. majorwager had an mlb pick of the day contest where guys had to pick 2 games. the second was an alternate in case of rain out and the top two guys just smashed it the 2nd half of the season and i was lucky enough to jump on at the right time. 

just curious if anyone here has had any positive results contest following.. 

One strategy is to find the most consistently profitable picker in Kings of covers contests.  For the top 10-20 pickers, start with those with the fewest number of picks and go down the list.  Calculate who has the best return on investment in the last 10 days.  Of course, easier to follow pickers who post few picks early daily.  Check often to stay up to date on hottest picker. 

@thirdperson

 Yep im already on that path but havent found that winning formula here yet. right now im tracking these guys. 

nba sides arsenal588

nba totals johngalt2341

ncaa hoops oknab77

nhl sides robert78lodz

they are all in that vein of not picking every side and total.  not just playing steam and usually picking early. ive done similar tests the past few years also but by the time i go to follow them i seem to catch them when they are cooling off. have you had much luck following guys in this manner?

nhl sides robert78lodz

_______________________

I understand people want to follow the leaders in the contests (they rarely lead from start to finish), but I find that following the individual team experts in MLB / NHL ATS is my bread and butter.

robert78lodz does mostly dogs and is good at it this season, but in my experience, following team experts in MLB and NHL have done very well for me, if you know specifically who to follow. Problem is with my brain, my old adage is "don't expert bad teams to do good things for you". On the other side of the coin, good teams can go on prolonged losing streaks.

What's working for me in those 2 sports is that I usually try to follow the team experts when their team is at home, and avoid the road games.

@tvigilante2020

thats interesting.  I havent really looked into the team experts because i assumed there was just an element of luck but i will take a closer look. i seem to be getting some results by taking the top few cappers and getting a consensus play or two on totals then possibly fading it. i still need to track it longer before i use it. i tracked that same thing the last few years and seem to be getting good results but dint track it long enough. the consensus plays on sides seem to hit a little better than 50/50 but nothing that i could bet money on. i am going to have to start tracking more long term the consensus of the top yearly cappers and weekly cappers.  i am really trying to find a system of using this sites contest pickers to help with my mlb picks. the top cappers from the previous years rarely seem to do very well the following year. i do handicap alot of my own games and also do alot of screen watching to make money. i am hoping to find a system in this way to help cut down on my time. 

@viper5887

Yes, there usually is a different winner each year in each different sports contest on here (Mollydog in the NCAAB could be an exception), and I stay away from totals as I am HORRIBLE with them as I have tracked myself over the last 20 years. Moneyline win or lose for me in MLB / NHL. That's it....pick the winner.....I'm not good with spreads in NBA / NFL / NCAAB / NCAAF. Narrow things down to what you are good at and be patient. 

Can I track experts in different sports and get some money? Sure....but that's too time consuming as I do this by hand and I don't have the coding experience to scrape data off these kinds of sites.

There is no thing as a foolproof system in this industry, and then when you win too much, most online sportsbooks will limit you. The deck is stacked, so find a small thing that you're good at and don't hit a home run. Win a little here and there and don't flag yourself.

Bankroll management is also key as well. For me, I make sure that my bankroll can take a 10 game losing streak, as I don't usually lose more than 3 in a row. Fingers crossed.  :)

I'm so looking forward to the upcoming MLB season (Year 3 of me betting) and seeing how my first full season of betting NHL will look like. I usually also wait for the first 2 weeks of a season to pass before I even start looking at the team experts. 

@tvigilante2020

 mollydog is a beast. im pretty sure he plays don best steam plays and hits the covers contest before the contest line moves. it is a great example of how to make real money if you have the right tools and know how. i would highly suggest not following his plays because he is catching line moves and you would be getting the worst of it. 

No positive results to report, because I went with the consensus picks at the one and only time I looked for them in the NFL top 10 or so, week 7: TB and LV cover, BAL U. All losses including -1650 in the contest.

You never really know what people are thinking with their picks. What if they start fading themselves?

Is anyone using or playing with an AI model? I have created an AI model using ChatGPT that I use. I spent the last month or so working with it and I seem to have it dialed in over the last few days going 74% total in NBA, NCAAB, and NHL. But I am curious if anyone else is using anything or trying anything that works. 

@Boulder257

 thats interesting. you are using chatgpt tracking the contests? 

Not tracking them there, but using them to predict outcomes for me. I have been using a model for the last few days that did very well in the NBA and NCAAB. It tanked last night in the NBA, but had it's fourth straight good night in NCAAB and now I am going to continue to use this model on my NCAAB picks in the contest to see what happens.