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    All Forums | Investments

    The Stock Market - A daily diary

    «First Previous 456 ... 383940 Next Last»
    Rush51
    wallstreetcappers
    gambleholic63
    THEMUGG
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    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 12, 2020 - 10:29 PM ET #76

    Yeah, it's all a game w the oil companies in how quickly they change their prices.  Look at the bright side ; you can take some pleasure knowing that you're sharing in their profits now that you own a small piece in oil companies .    Also, I know when gas prices are punishingly high when the local news goes to the gas station to interview people filling their tank.  Lol.   Once again, you can at least take some solace knowing you're at least getting 'something' in return  .

    Reply

    Yeah, it's all a game w the oil companies in how quickly they change their prices.  Look at the bright side ; you can take some pleasure knowing that you're sharing in their profits now that you own a small piece in oil companies .    Also, I know when gas prices are punishingly high when the local news goes to the gas station to interview people filling their tank.  Lol.   Once again, you can at least take some solace knowing you're at least getting 'something' in return  .

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 12:22 AM ET #77

    2375 would mark a -30% decline in the s and p 500.  For this to occur in the same week that a -20% drawdown occurred would be truly astonishing.   Futures market is already putting this in striking distance for Friday 

    Reply

    2375 would mark a -30% decline in the s and p 500.  For this to occur in the same week that a -20% drawdown occurred would be truly astonishing.   Futures market is already putting this in striking distance for Friday 

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 1:02 AM ET #78

    I dont see how that is avoided...no ammt of QE or tax date moving can change the fact that businesses are taking precautions and in the US it will only get worse. The US is seeing how serious Europe is and it is making the planning going forward to be extremely cautious and safe..that means business and the economy will slow and that means in the short term this market is VERY VERY overvalued. 20k plus for the unknown slowdown impact and the oil shock, the margin calls still coming in and I dont see how debt ratings arent already being hit in multiple industries...I think the rating agencies know if they were to be in front of this ratings wise it would make things worse.

    At best this thing drags out six months plus and who knows the impact that will have and if it continues even further than just six months. But hey Trump thought this wasnt so bad and not that many people would die from it..just like a cold he said. We need a leader who can inspire and lift people, not bag on political opponents and delegate like a pompous moron.

    Reply

    I dont see how that is avoided...no ammt of QE or tax date moving can change the fact that businesses are taking precautions and in the US it will only get worse. The US is seeing how serious Europe is and it is making the planning going forward to be extremely cautious and safe..that means business and the economy will slow and that means in the short term this market is VERY VERY overvalued. 20k plus for the unknown slowdown impact and the oil shock, the margin calls still coming in and I dont see how debt ratings arent already being hit in multiple industries...I think the rating agencies know if they were to be in front of this ratings wise it would make things worse.

    At best this thing drags out six months plus and who knows the impact that will have and if it continues even further than just six months. But hey Trump thought this wasnt so bad and not that many people would die from it..just like a cold he said. We need a leader who can inspire and lift people, not bag on political opponents and delegate like a pompous moron.

     
    Rush51
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 11:55 AM ET #79

    Such an uneventful day so far. Lol.  Futures gyrate all over the place.   Dow opens more than 1300 points,  only to lose 1200 of that just 2.5 hours later.  Here we go again  ! 

    Reply

    Such an uneventful day so far. Lol.  Futures gyrate all over the place.   Dow opens more than 1300 points,  only to lose 1200 of that just 2.5 hours later.  Here we go again  ! 

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 11:55 AM ET #80

    I thought it was odd how they reversed the markets based on China cutting the banking leverage ratios...how does this solve the problem? How does that moron Mnuchin saying liquidity will be fine not like 1987. How does bank liquidity solve the problem?

    All these clowns including Trump seem to care about is the leveraged stock market..newsflash the companies IN the stock market are being impacted from this, not what leverage the hedge funds you are so worried about are taking and if they have margin calls.

    When you have clueless leverage loving businessmen running the government not much will get accomplished for the greater good. But lookie BAC is up 5% today so that means everything is OK!

    Reply

    I thought it was odd how they reversed the markets based on China cutting the banking leverage ratios...how does this solve the problem? How does that moron Mnuchin saying liquidity will be fine not like 1987. How does bank liquidity solve the problem?

    All these clowns including Trump seem to care about is the leveraged stock market..newsflash the companies IN the stock market are being impacted from this, not what leverage the hedge funds you are so worried about are taking and if they have margin calls.

    When you have clueless leverage loving businessmen running the government not much will get accomplished for the greater good. But lookie BAC is up 5% today so that means everything is OK!

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 11:56 AM ET #81

    Wall, thanks for answering my earlier question about Boeing 

    Reply

    Wall, thanks for answering my earlier question about Boeing 

     
    gambleholic63
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 1:58 PM ET #82

    Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

    2375 would mark a -30% decline in the s and p 500.  For this to occur in the same week that a -20% drawdown occurred would be truly astonishing.   Futures market is already putting this in striking distance for Friday

    Rush. With the economy grinding to a halt, it's certain that the E component will take a huge two or three quarter hit. How much do you think the hit to earnings will be? The first quarter will show a hit and the second and third quarters are going to be horrible. The unanswered question is how all of this devastation will affect the 4th quarter recovery after the crisis ends? 

    I am an NBA season ticket holder and today I was advised that the league is planning on resuming and completing the season on a shortened schedule with a full playoffs. I'm not so sure that can happen.....so many questions on consumer spending and earnings? 

    The markets are simply working on fear and panic at the moment. With the E component missing, everything is a guess. 

    Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

    2375 would mark a -30% decline in the s and p 500.  For this to occur in the same week that a -20% drawdown occurred would be truly astonishing.   Futures market is already putting this in striking distance for Friday

    Rush. With the economy grinding to a halt, it's certain that the E component will take a huge two or three quarter hit. How much do you think the hit to earnings will be? The first quarter will show a hit and the second and third quarters are going to be horrible. The unanswered question is how all of this devastation will affect the 4th quarter recovery after the crisis ends? 

    I am an NBA season ticket holder and today I was advised that the league is planning on resuming and completing the season on a shortened schedule with a full playoffs. I'm not so sure that can happen.....so many questions on consumer spending and earnings? 

    The markets are simply working on fear and panic at the moment. With the E component missing, everything is a guess. 

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 6:00 PM ET #83

    I have absolutely no idea what the hit to earnings will be... I think I mentioned in an earlier thread that earnings would be hit by around 50% for some companies, particularly those levered to China production.  It was a WAG and likely a bit high, and at the time we were just talking about supply disruptions from China.  Nobody really knows the supply disruption answer, but I worked as a Manager for a Tech firms for close to 15 years, with production in China & Taiwan, so I have some insight into how big and complicated it might be.  What people underestimate is that even if their production lines are not in China, their factories likely source raw materials in China.  You can bet there are mid-level managers here in the U.S. that are just finding out that that small resistor or circuit board, or microchip is sourced in China, even if they thought they were safe w/ production in Taiwan (as an example).    China touches just about everything production-wise in Asia, particularly with electronics ; it is that bad. 

    So, you have severe supply disruptions on the China side, and now we're being hit in the U.S with a huge demand disruption.  If you show me a CEO or manager that can confidently tell me their earnings over the next year, and I'll show you a liar.  Lol..

    In all seriousness, I don't think anybody alive today has experienced anything quite like this with so many unknowns, including a health fear where no one knows if they are next to get it.  This has parts of 9/11 in it, and also the financial crisis.


     

    Gamble, I think your last point is spot on..   “” The markets are simply working on fear and panic at the moment. With the E component missing, everything is a guess.””    Exactly, and No one can figure out what the P component should be over the next several quarters or year, and the markets are reflecting  that uncertainty.

    For us long-term investors, we could care less market-wise (at least I feel that way, save for all the lives unnecessarily lost, and people’s lives severely disrupted.)   The market will recover, and this will be looked back on as another re-pricing of assets at attractive levels.. 


     

     

     

     

     

    Reply

    I have absolutely no idea what the hit to earnings will be... I think I mentioned in an earlier thread that earnings would be hit by around 50% for some companies, particularly those levered to China production.  It was a WAG and likely a bit high, and at the time we were just talking about supply disruptions from China.  Nobody really knows the supply disruption answer, but I worked as a Manager for a Tech firms for close to 15 years, with production in China & Taiwan, so I have some insight into how big and complicated it might be.  What people underestimate is that even if their production lines are not in China, their factories likely source raw materials in China.  You can bet there are mid-level managers here in the U.S. that are just finding out that that small resistor or circuit board, or microchip is sourced in China, even if they thought they were safe w/ production in Taiwan (as an example).    China touches just about everything production-wise in Asia, particularly with electronics ; it is that bad. 

    So, you have severe supply disruptions on the China side, and now we're being hit in the U.S with a huge demand disruption.  If you show me a CEO or manager that can confidently tell me their earnings over the next year, and I'll show you a liar.  Lol..

    In all seriousness, I don't think anybody alive today has experienced anything quite like this with so many unknowns, including a health fear where no one knows if they are next to get it.  This has parts of 9/11 in it, and also the financial crisis.


     

    Gamble, I think your last point is spot on..   “” The markets are simply working on fear and panic at the moment. With the E component missing, everything is a guess.””    Exactly, and No one can figure out what the P component should be over the next several quarters or year, and the markets are reflecting  that uncertainty.

    For us long-term investors, we could care less market-wise (at least I feel that way, save for all the lives unnecessarily lost, and people’s lives severely disrupted.)   The market will recover, and this will be looked back on as another re-pricing of assets at attractive levels.. 


     

     

     

     

     

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 6:27 PM ET #84

    Regarding Boeing, just saw that Fitch put the company on "credit watch."

    Reply

    Regarding Boeing, just saw that Fitch put the company on "credit watch."

     
    Rush51
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 13, 2020 - 6:50 PM ET #85

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    I dont see how that is avoided...no ammt of QE or tax date moving can change the fact that businesses are taking precautions and in the US it will only get worse. The US is seeing how serious Europe is and it is making the planning going forward to be extremely cautious and safe..that means business and the economy will slow and that means in the short term this market is VERY VERY overvalued. 20k plus for the unknown slowdown impact and the oil shock, the margin calls still coming in and I dont see how debt ratings arent already being hit in multiple industries...I think the rating agencies know if they were to be in front of this ratings wise it would make things worse. At best this thing drags out six months plus and who knows the impact that will have and if it continues even further than just six months. But hey Trump thought this wasnt so bad and not that many people would die from it..just like a cold he said. We need a leader who can inspire and lift people, not bag on political opponents and delegate like a pompous moron.

    Wall, agree 100% with you.  It will be curious to see how bad things get here in the U.S. w/ the virus.  Count me as very concerned.  I see our economy and the lack of aggressive measures early on as more similar to Italy.  Contrast that with China and potentially S. Korea.   They have no problems ratcheting back peoples freedoms (particularly in China).  This virus strikes at the very heart of this country , and exposes its vulnerabilities with its freedoms.   God, I hope I'm wrong, but count me as very concerned.  I wish there was an outright flight ban and public transportation ban for 30 days in this country, with this National Disaster Declaration today.  That would seem appropriate.  Desperate times call for desperate measures...   

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    I dont see how that is avoided...no ammt of QE or tax date moving can change the fact that businesses are taking precautions and in the US it will only get worse. The US is seeing how serious Europe is and it is making the planning going forward to be extremely cautious and safe..that means business and the economy will slow and that means in the short term this market is VERY VERY overvalued. 20k plus for the unknown slowdown impact and the oil shock, the margin calls still coming in and I dont see how debt ratings arent already being hit in multiple industries...I think the rating agencies know if they were to be in front of this ratings wise it would make things worse. At best this thing drags out six months plus and who knows the impact that will have and if it continues even further than just six months. But hey Trump thought this wasnt so bad and not that many people would die from it..just like a cold he said. We need a leader who can inspire and lift people, not bag on political opponents and delegate like a pompous moron.

    Wall, agree 100% with you.  It will be curious to see how bad things get here in the U.S. w/ the virus.  Count me as very concerned.  I see our economy and the lack of aggressive measures early on as more similar to Italy.  Contrast that with China and potentially S. Korea.   They have no problems ratcheting back peoples freedoms (particularly in China).  This virus strikes at the very heart of this country , and exposes its vulnerabilities with its freedoms.   God, I hope I'm wrong, but count me as very concerned.  I wish there was an outright flight ban and public transportation ban for 30 days in this country, with this National Disaster Declaration today.  That would seem appropriate.  Desperate times call for desperate measures...   

     

     
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 9:09 AM ET #86

     I tried, & thought I failed, to time the market back in November by getting out to cash ......... now the waiting game intensifies.

    Reply

     I tried, & thought I failed, to time the market back in November by getting out to cash ......... now the waiting game intensifies.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 12:44 PM ET #87

    MUGG... good timing for sure.  It is difficult to do a consistent basis, though.  You're ahead of the ballgame if you decided to do some buying today ; probably 20% cheaper from where you sold.  Very few have the conviction to do any buying on days like today, but you would likely be rewarded if you have a long term view.. 3-5 years

    Reply

    MUGG... good timing for sure.  It is difficult to do a consistent basis, though.  You're ahead of the ballgame if you decided to do some buying today ; probably 20% cheaper from where you sold.  Very few have the conviction to do any buying on days like today, but you would likely be rewarded if you have a long term view.. 3-5 years

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 1:06 PM ET #88

    So, the market was down almost 2,800 points at the low today... So Far.  ... there sure is a lot of panic out there.  People don't  know how to price assets as we just talked on Friday.   If people are treating their 401ks like their fear of the nation's food supply, I fear for their financial future.   Back to stocks,  Decision are supposed to be made over the long term, and nothing happening in the short term should change that view.  If people are concerned about the short term, perhaps they shouldn't be in stocks to begin with.. 

    No good outcome is likely when your decisions are based on fear and emotion..

    Reply

    So, the market was down almost 2,800 points at the low today... So Far.  ... there sure is a lot of panic out there.  People don't  know how to price assets as we just talked on Friday.   If people are treating their 401ks like their fear of the nation's food supply, I fear for their financial future.   Back to stocks,  Decision are supposed to be made over the long term, and nothing happening in the short term should change that view.  If people are concerned about the short term, perhaps they shouldn't be in stocks to begin with.. 

    No good outcome is likely when your decisions are based on fear and emotion..

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 2:10 PM ET #89

    Stocks can get irrationally bought, just like they can get irrationally sold.  Take Kroger for instance.   Sure, people are hoarding food, but are they eating more ? No, these  people are likely just building a huge inventory,  and will be making fewer trips to the store  when the crisis ends.    Long story short.. people are pulling in their demand.    They are likely not using or consuming more goods than they did previously.  Perhaps soap,  etc.  is an outlier,  but this won't have any meaningful impact to company results...

    Kroger is up on the day, but should it be.  The market isn't even looking out 4 quarters as it usually does  It might be looking out 4 hours at this point..  lol.   Everybody is hitting the panic button. 

    Reply

    Stocks can get irrationally bought, just like they can get irrationally sold.  Take Kroger for instance.   Sure, people are hoarding food, but are they eating more ? No, these  people are likely just building a huge inventory,  and will be making fewer trips to the store  when the crisis ends.    Long story short.. people are pulling in their demand.    They are likely not using or consuming more goods than they did previously.  Perhaps soap,  etc.  is an outlier,  but this won't have any meaningful impact to company results...

    Kroger is up on the day, but should it be.  The market isn't even looking out 4 quarters as it usually does  It might be looking out 4 hours at this point..  lol.   Everybody is hitting the panic button. 

     
    gambleholic63
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 2:16 PM ET #90

    We are headed into an uncertain world. IF this crisis turns into a situation where we see the crisis peak and get on the downside of the slope within 3 months then we will be looking at a 2 or 3 quarter recession. Anyone that doesn't think we aren't going into a 2 or 3 quarter recession is delusional. 

    Thus, the question is now what is the "cost" of this recession. I personally think that cost will prove to show stocks to be a good buy at today's levels. I say that with a 200 day moving average viewpoint. I would also keep an eye on Italy. They, like Americans, did not take the threat of the virus seriously. When Italy gets back to normal I think the markets here will breath a sigh of relief and rally from wherever they bottomed. 

     

    Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
    Reply

    We are headed into an uncertain world. IF this crisis turns into a situation where we see the crisis peak and get on the downside of the slope within 3 months then we will be looking at a 2 or 3 quarter recession. Anyone that doesn't think we aren't going into a 2 or 3 quarter recession is delusional. 

    Thus, the question is now what is the "cost" of this recession. I personally think that cost will prove to show stocks to be a good buy at today's levels. I say that with a 200 day moving average viewpoint. I would also keep an eye on Italy. They, like Americans, did not take the threat of the virus seriously. When Italy gets back to normal I think the markets here will breath a sigh of relief and rally from wherever they bottomed. 

     

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 2:37 PM ET #91

    Rush,

    I was thinking the same thing about KR today. I was in a local KR this morning getting a few things and shelves are decimated in core goods and staples. I think people are pulling demand forward and if this thing does blow over that will reflect in a slowdown in a few months after the worst is over.

    Outside energy I dont see value yet..yes prices are lower but that is not a sign of value to me. I want to see multiples contract to levels that are reasonable and that is not measured by a one year comparison. These markets went up 4-9x from lows and that is way too far from reality.

    Reply

    Rush,

    I was thinking the same thing about KR today. I was in a local KR this morning getting a few things and shelves are decimated in core goods and staples. I think people are pulling demand forward and if this thing does blow over that will reflect in a slowdown in a few months after the worst is over.

    Outside energy I dont see value yet..yes prices are lower but that is not a sign of value to me. I want to see multiples contract to levels that are reasonable and that is not measured by a one year comparison. These markets went up 4-9x from lows and that is way too far from reality.

     
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 4:00 PM ET #92

    Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

    MUGG... good timing for sure.  It is difficult to do a consistent basis, though.  You're ahead of the ballgame if you decided to do some buying today ; probably 20% cheaper from where you sold.  Very few have the conviction to do any buying on days like today, but you would likely be rewarded if you have a long term view.. 3-5 years

     I got out when the markets hit new record highs, then cussed myself for a couple months as I watched that become an almost daily event. I'm going to ease my way back into some funds, although I did buy a chunk of XOM this a.m. Hard to resist the "1/2 off sale".

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

    MUGG... good timing for sure.  It is difficult to do a consistent basis, though.  You're ahead of the ballgame if you decided to do some buying today ; probably 20% cheaper from where you sold.  Very few have the conviction to do any buying on days like today, but you would likely be rewarded if you have a long term view.. 3-5 years

     I got out when the markets hit new record highs, then cussed myself for a couple months as I watched that become an almost daily event. I'm going to ease my way back into some funds, although I did buy a chunk of XOM this a.m. Hard to resist the "1/2 off sale".

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 4:14 PM ET #93

    Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

    We are headed into an uncertain world. IF this crisis turns into a situation where we see the crisis peak and get on the downside of the slope within 3 months then we will be looking at a 2 or 3 quarter recession. Anyone that doesn't think we aren't going into a 2 or 3 quarter recession is delusional.  Thus, the question is now what is the "cost" of this recession. I personally think that cost will prove to show stocks to be a good buy at today's levels. I say that with a 200 day moving average viewpoint. I would also keep an eye on Italy. They, like Americans, did not take the threat of the virus seriously. When Italy gets back to normal I think the markets here will breath a sigh of relief and rally from wherever they bottomed.

    Yes, your point on Italy on agree with... I mentioned it on Friday to Wall (post #85).    What is so sinister about this is that it attacks our very foundation in a democracy with our personal freedoms in Western Society.    We share a lot more in common w/ Italy than S. Korea or China... That is the very scary part.   People that live in democracies have a hard time listening to their government hand down orders to their people, and  is all unprecedented in our lifetimes.  

    I'm with you 'Gamble long term.  I think you and I beat the drum on the benefits of long-term investing a lot..  

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

    We are headed into an uncertain world. IF this crisis turns into a situation where we see the crisis peak and get on the downside of the slope within 3 months then we will be looking at a 2 or 3 quarter recession. Anyone that doesn't think we aren't going into a 2 or 3 quarter recession is delusional.  Thus, the question is now what is the "cost" of this recession. I personally think that cost will prove to show stocks to be a good buy at today's levels. I say that with a 200 day moving average viewpoint. I would also keep an eye on Italy. They, like Americans, did not take the threat of the virus seriously. When Italy gets back to normal I think the markets here will breath a sigh of relief and rally from wherever they bottomed.

    Yes, your point on Italy on agree with... I mentioned it on Friday to Wall (post #85).    What is so sinister about this is that it attacks our very foundation in a democracy with our personal freedoms in Western Society.    We share a lot more in common w/ Italy than S. Korea or China... That is the very scary part.   People that live in democracies have a hard time listening to their government hand down orders to their people, and  is all unprecedented in our lifetimes.  

    I'm with you 'Gamble long term.  I think you and I beat the drum on the benefits of long-term investing a lot..  

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 4:42 PM ET #94

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Rush, I was thinking the same thing about KR today. I was in a local KR this morning getting a few things and shelves are decimated in core goods and staples. I think people are pulling demand forward and if this thing does blow over that will reflect in a slowdown in a few months after the worst is over. Outside energy I dont see value yet..yes prices are lower but that is not a sign of value to me. I want to see multiples contract to levels that are reasonable and that is not measured by a one year comparison. These markets went up 4-9x from lows and that is way too far from reality.

    Wall, this hoarding going on is just nuts ! ... Regarding Energy, I know you probably did a pretty exhaustive review of the small E&P players, and saw you bought some DVN...  By chance, did you come across Diamondback Energy (FANG) ?   They seem to have a better balance sheet than most, with a "relatively" smaller debt to equity ratio... All these guys are down around -80% ..  

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Rush, I was thinking the same thing about KR today. I was in a local KR this morning getting a few things and shelves are decimated in core goods and staples. I think people are pulling demand forward and if this thing does blow over that will reflect in a slowdown in a few months after the worst is over. Outside energy I dont see value yet..yes prices are lower but that is not a sign of value to me. I want to see multiples contract to levels that are reasonable and that is not measured by a one year comparison. These markets went up 4-9x from lows and that is way too far from reality.

    Wall, this hoarding going on is just nuts ! ... Regarding Energy, I know you probably did a pretty exhaustive review of the small E&P players, and saw you bought some DVN...  By chance, did you come across Diamondback Energy (FANG) ?   They seem to have a better balance sheet than most, with a "relatively" smaller debt to equity ratio... All these guys are down around -80% ..  

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 4:54 PM ET #95

    Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rush51: MUGG... good timing for sure.  It is difficult to do a consistent basis, though.  You're ahead of the ballgame if you decided to do some buying today ; probably 20% cheaper from where you sold.  Very few have the conviction to do any buying on days like today, but you would likely be rewarded if you have a long term view.. 3-5 years  I got out when the markets hit new record highs, then cussed myself for a couple months as I watched that become an almost daily event. I'm going to ease my way back into some funds, although I did buy a chunk of XOM this a.m. Hard to resist the "1/2 off sale".

    Yeah, MUGG.. we saw the same thing last year and early this year on those daily market records .  The markets seemed to continue going up, up, up, on very little news.  Almost like a rubber band getting stretched. 

    I'm glad you got in to do some buying today, and I like your 1/2 off sale reference .  Lol.   I know I've said it before..Stocks are the only thing people run away from when there is a sale

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rush51: MUGG... good timing for sure.  It is difficult to do a consistent basis, though.  You're ahead of the ballgame if you decided to do some buying today ; probably 20% cheaper from where you sold.  Very few have the conviction to do any buying on days like today, but you would likely be rewarded if you have a long term view.. 3-5 years  I got out when the markets hit new record highs, then cussed myself for a couple months as I watched that become an almost daily event. I'm going to ease my way back into some funds, although I did buy a chunk of XOM this a.m. Hard to resist the "1/2 off sale".

    Yeah, MUGG.. we saw the same thing last year and early this year on those daily market records .  The markets seemed to continue going up, up, up, on very little news.  Almost like a rubber band getting stretched. 

    I'm glad you got in to do some buying today, and I like your 1/2 off sale reference .  Lol.   I know I've said it before..Stocks are the only thing people run away from when there is a sale

     

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 5:22 PM ET #96

    I'm going to go through some of the stocks again on my daily dashboard. ... On this 2nd worst percentage daily drop ever ;

    Citi drops close to -20%

    Intel off by -18%

    Emerson (only) dropped -6.7%

    Walmart & Target dropped -6.5% and -7% , respectively..  (Getting some of the same benefit of the "Kroger effect").

    Home Depot down almost -20%

    Boeing down almost another -24%.  (This one is getting interesting for a company that operates in an effective duopoly).

    Penn National down almost -45%  (It was just a few short months ago this one looked to be a good buy!. lol)

     

    Reply

    I'm going to go through some of the stocks again on my daily dashboard. ... On this 2nd worst percentage daily drop ever ;

    Citi drops close to -20%

    Intel off by -18%

    Emerson (only) dropped -6.7%

    Walmart & Target dropped -6.5% and -7% , respectively..  (Getting some of the same benefit of the "Kroger effect").

    Home Depot down almost -20%

    Boeing down almost another -24%.  (This one is getting interesting for a company that operates in an effective duopoly).

    Penn National down almost -45%  (It was just a few short months ago this one looked to be a good buy!. lol)

     

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 5:52 PM ET #97

    PENN down quite a bit but it was lower last time the market dropped...so maybe another two bucks and it would be worth starting a position.

    BA was under 40 last time we had a market drop, so it is down relative to a 5 year chart but the market has been distorted for longer than five years.

    HD is still 100 bucks too high for a value play..long term chart shows this one could fall much much more.

    The banks are really in a bad spot here because the FED doing what they did really crushes the profits for banks. Look at Euro banks, they have been in the crapper since they went at and near zero...its really bad for these atrocious banks AND you add that they are on the hook for a mountain of shale and oil debt..

    C went to 15 when the market got nailed, bag of crap (BAC) was in the single digits GS is another 75 bucks from value and very very over priced. JP is another 50% lower until value. Look at the Euro banks...then look at our bloated pig banks.

    I did look at that FANG, it seems like a good value because of the drop but it wasnt around the last time the market got nailed, what I think is their revenues are going to get hit and they have a fair ammt of debt so the divi will drop and even now it isnt some superstar divi (5%ish) so I think there are better divi plays with upside than this one. What is your allure to it?

    Reply

    PENN down quite a bit but it was lower last time the market dropped...so maybe another two bucks and it would be worth starting a position.

    BA was under 40 last time we had a market drop, so it is down relative to a 5 year chart but the market has been distorted for longer than five years.

    HD is still 100 bucks too high for a value play..long term chart shows this one could fall much much more.

    The banks are really in a bad spot here because the FED doing what they did really crushes the profits for banks. Look at Euro banks, they have been in the crapper since they went at and near zero...its really bad for these atrocious banks AND you add that they are on the hook for a mountain of shale and oil debt..

    C went to 15 when the market got nailed, bag of crap (BAC) was in the single digits GS is another 75 bucks from value and very very over priced. JP is another 50% lower until value. Look at the Euro banks...then look at our bloated pig banks.

    I did look at that FANG, it seems like a good value because of the drop but it wasnt around the last time the market got nailed, what I think is their revenues are going to get hit and they have a fair ammt of debt so the divi will drop and even now it isnt some superstar divi (5%ish) so I think there are better divi plays with upside than this one. What is your allure to it?

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2020 - 6:13 PM ET #98

    A note on BA...I saw they got downgraded two notches after market and BA is the poster child for what is wrong with the markets and what the FED has done to destroy our economy and businesses.

    So BA is seeking bailout funds because they are drowning in debt and spent 100 BILLION on stupid stock buybacks and dividends and what do they have to show for it? Downgraded underwater debt.

    There are many many companies in a similar situation that loaded up on cheap debt and did buybacks, thats why the market is up here..short term rewards and long term debt...companies like AAPL and many others have done this.

    Not sure what BA will trade at tomorrow but it should be much much lower given their draw down, credit drop and revenue decimation.

    Reply

    A note on BA...I saw they got downgraded two notches after market and BA is the poster child for what is wrong with the markets and what the FED has done to destroy our economy and businesses.

    So BA is seeking bailout funds because they are drowning in debt and spent 100 BILLION on stupid stock buybacks and dividends and what do they have to show for it? Downgraded underwater debt.

    There are many many companies in a similar situation that loaded up on cheap debt and did buybacks, thats why the market is up here..short term rewards and long term debt...companies like AAPL and many others have done this.

    Not sure what BA will trade at tomorrow but it should be much much lower given their draw down, credit drop and revenue decimation.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 1:00 AM ET #99

    Wall, I saw that on BA.  Their credit got downgraded to BBB, one level above junk status.  Yikes !  Wow, how the mighty have fallen.   It was just a couple of years ago this was a rock solid company.   I agree w you on the practice of buybacks.   Terrible.    Companies invested in their stock price,  instead of long term investments in their business.   I've always hated this bit of financial engineering. 

    In any event, here we are.. 2 horrible Boeing crashes,  unwise use of cheap debt, an inability to get the 737max back in the air in a timely manner,  and now a Corona virus thrown into the mix for good measure..

    Reply

    Wall, I saw that on BA.  Their credit got downgraded to BBB, one level above junk status.  Yikes !  Wow, how the mighty have fallen.   It was just a couple of years ago this was a rock solid company.   I agree w you on the practice of buybacks.   Terrible.    Companies invested in their stock price,  instead of long term investments in their business.   I've always hated this bit of financial engineering. 

    In any event, here we are.. 2 horrible Boeing crashes,  unwise use of cheap debt, an inability to get the 737max back in the air in a timely manner,  and now a Corona virus thrown into the mix for good measure..

     
     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 1:46 AM ET #100

    Wall, the allure, or maybe more accurately , what got my attention on FANG was its lower debt ratio than any of the others  E&P plays.. I didn't dive into the financials much more than this.   I told myself I wasn't going to invest in any more oil, but I may take a very small flier one of these for a trade.  I expect the dividend to get cut on most/all of these E&P plays, so that to me isn't even a factor.   They've all been priced for extinction with their significant price declines.   Russia and SA are always a wild card too. 

    Reply

    Wall, the allure, or maybe more accurately , what got my attention on FANG was its lower debt ratio than any of the others  E&P plays.. I didn't dive into the financials much more than this.   I told myself I wasn't going to invest in any more oil, but I may take a very small flier one of these for a trade.  I expect the dividend to get cut on most/all of these E&P plays, so that to me isn't even a factor.   They've all been priced for extinction with their significant price declines.   Russia and SA are always a wild card too. 

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