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    All Forums | Investments

    The Stock Market - A daily diary

    «First Previous 567 ... 383940 Next Last»
    wallstreetcappers
    Rush51
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    THEMUGG
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    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 10:41 AM ET #101

    Yeah with zero int rates out there even if some of the stocks I purchased cut their divis the return still is way more than I would find anywhere and the stocks are on sale. I think most of the bigger names will cut CAPEX before cutting the dividend but lets see I guess who knows.

    Markets have zero depth on bid/ask sizes...these ticks moving 100 pts just are not good. I started typing this message and the market went from down 100 to up 170 to flat all inside a few minutes.

    I see that PENN is down again, to me you have to 100% discount that acquisition made because it means nothing right now and their business is almost shut down for all intensive purposes...so they could be in a really bad spot if they cant float their fixed costs for a while. Same goes for restaurants and movie theaters etc etc etc

    Reply

    Yeah with zero int rates out there even if some of the stocks I purchased cut their divis the return still is way more than I would find anywhere and the stocks are on sale. I think most of the bigger names will cut CAPEX before cutting the dividend but lets see I guess who knows.

    Markets have zero depth on bid/ask sizes...these ticks moving 100 pts just are not good. I started typing this message and the market went from down 100 to up 170 to flat all inside a few minutes.

    I see that PENN is down again, to me you have to 100% discount that acquisition made because it means nothing right now and their business is almost shut down for all intensive purposes...so they could be in a really bad spot if they cant float their fixed costs for a while. Same goes for restaurants and movie theaters etc etc etc

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 4:28 PM ET #102

    Boy, PENN got hammered again as you say, Wall.  Seems they are discounting their Entire business at this point. lol.    They are victim not only of being in the casino business, but also undertaking a (partial) acquisition of Barstool Sports , before all this mess.  And yes, most importantly, they are a victim of poor timing in that deal.  I wonder if Trump has any plans for a bailout of the casino businesses, like the airlines or Boeing ?  (sarcasm).  This is the slippery slope of giving a lifeline to businesses..  You pick winners and losers...

       

    Reply

    Boy, PENN got hammered again as you say, Wall.  Seems they are discounting their Entire business at this point. lol.    They are victim not only of being in the casino business, but also undertaking a (partial) acquisition of Barstool Sports , before all this mess.  And yes, most importantly, they are a victim of poor timing in that deal.  I wonder if Trump has any plans for a bailout of the casino businesses, like the airlines or Boeing ?  (sarcasm).  This is the slippery slope of giving a lifeline to businesses..  You pick winners and losers...

       

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 5:04 PM ET #103

    I think I found one of the best stocks to hold up in these times... Dominos Pizza (DPZ).  How many people are going to be calling up Dominos for delivery when they run out of food and don't want to deal with the long lines, or no food at all, in the stores.. Government is telling (advocating) food locations to keep their drive-thrus open, so this would extend you would think to delivery service as well for companies. 

    Unfortunately, this isn't some undiscovered gem though.. DPZ is up on the year.. Probably one of the few companies with that distinction.

    Reply

    I think I found one of the best stocks to hold up in these times... Dominos Pizza (DPZ).  How many people are going to be calling up Dominos for delivery when they run out of food and don't want to deal with the long lines, or no food at all, in the stores.. Government is telling (advocating) food locations to keep their drive-thrus open, so this would extend you would think to delivery service as well for companies. 

    Unfortunately, this isn't some undiscovered gem though.. DPZ is up on the year.. Probably one of the few companies with that distinction.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 5:27 PM ET #104

     

    Today was a bit of an unusual day in the trading patterns underneath.  I look at my daily dashboard of stocks to give me some idea what the "undercurrents" are in the market.  (Like I said earlier, I pick a handful of stocks across multiple sectors.  It helps give some breadth and depth to the analysis)...   Some people might view the 1k advance today and assume a unified stock advance (like in previous big advance days).    This wasn't the case today..

     

    Today was different, because it was a bit disjointed.  For example, with the airlines, American Airlines was down -2%, and United and Delta down double-digits.  Also, with oil, E&P gets slammed, but the more integrated oil plays slightly up (1.5%), or a decent increase 6.7%.. Even with my regional bank stocks on the dashboard, one was up 6.86%, and the other a little over 1%..   They almost always trade in unison within a percentage point or two..

    I’m not sure what the takeaway is from this, but guessing just some selective stock picking by active managers.  Movements in the past during this crisis have been much more “all or nothing” ...

     

    Reply

     

    Today was a bit of an unusual day in the trading patterns underneath.  I look at my daily dashboard of stocks to give me some idea what the "undercurrents" are in the market.  (Like I said earlier, I pick a handful of stocks across multiple sectors.  It helps give some breadth and depth to the analysis)...   Some people might view the 1k advance today and assume a unified stock advance (like in previous big advance days).    This wasn't the case today..

     

    Today was different, because it was a bit disjointed.  For example, with the airlines, American Airlines was down -2%, and United and Delta down double-digits.  Also, with oil, E&P gets slammed, but the more integrated oil plays slightly up (1.5%), or a decent increase 6.7%.. Even with my regional bank stocks on the dashboard, one was up 6.86%, and the other a little over 1%..   They almost always trade in unison within a percentage point or two..

    I’m not sure what the takeaway is from this, but guessing just some selective stock picking by active managers.  Movements in the past during this crisis have been much more “all or nothing” ...

     

     
    gambleholic63
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 7:09 PM ET #105

    The consequences of this shutdown are immense. Boeing, in particular, either gets help from the government or they go under. It's crazy to think they have burned through 13.8B in cash in just over a month. Boeing and the airlines will get help. What about the auto industry? They have already been bailed out once before. Such a mess. Our nation is becoming a house of cards. 

    As far as looking at positives? 

    JNJ announced today that they will be conducting human trials in November of this year which will be way quicker than any predictions out there. There is good news coming out of other countries with various treatment success stories. We will defeat this virus. That much is certain. However, my worry is the future and what virus strains we will be fighting in 5 or 10 years? I saw a speech by Bill Gates in 2005 when he predicted all of this. Google it. We are blessed to have such brilliant minds on our side. There is a lot of work to do!

     

    Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
    Reply

    The consequences of this shutdown are immense. Boeing, in particular, either gets help from the government or they go under. It's crazy to think they have burned through 13.8B in cash in just over a month. Boeing and the airlines will get help. What about the auto industry? They have already been bailed out once before. Such a mess. Our nation is becoming a house of cards. 

    As far as looking at positives? 

    JNJ announced today that they will be conducting human trials in November of this year which will be way quicker than any predictions out there. There is good news coming out of other countries with various treatment success stories. We will defeat this virus. That much is certain. However, my worry is the future and what virus strains we will be fighting in 5 or 10 years? I saw a speech by Bill Gates in 2005 when he predicted all of this. Google it. We are blessed to have such brilliant minds on our side. There is a lot of work to do!

     

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2020 - 10:55 PM ET #106

    Yeah, Boeing is such a huge cog in American aviation, and don't forget all the huge defense contracts they have w the government.  No way they are going anywhere.   As far as the airlines go, much different story, but they also probably get a lifeline.

    Regarding Bill Gates, I found it interesting he stepped away from the Microsoft board just last week.  Perhaps he wants to spend more w his philanthropic ventures and work on infectious disease.   He did a phenomenal job as co-creator of Microsoft, but the company has transformed itself away from the platform that Gates made so successful. It's time I suppose... 

    Reply

    Yeah, Boeing is such a huge cog in American aviation, and don't forget all the huge defense contracts they have w the government.  No way they are going anywhere.   As far as the airlines go, much different story, but they also probably get a lifeline.

    Regarding Bill Gates, I found it interesting he stepped away from the Microsoft board just last week.  Perhaps he wants to spend more w his philanthropic ventures and work on infectious disease.   He did a phenomenal job as co-creator of Microsoft, but the company has transformed itself away from the platform that Gates made so successful. It's time I suppose... 

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 2:29 AM ET #107

    So, a little perspective in how bad the numbers have been recently... Two of the 5 worst daily percentage declines in the market have occurred just this past week.  Two others occurred in 1929.  The worst occurred on Black Monday,  1987.   It seems surprising  that the financial crisis didn't have a daily drop in the top 5.  

    Reply

    So, a little perspective in how bad the numbers have been recently... Two of the 5 worst daily percentage declines in the market have occurred just this past week.  Two others occurred in 1929.  The worst occurred on Black Monday,  1987.   It seems surprising  that the financial crisis didn't have a daily drop in the top 5.  

     
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 2:38 AM ET #108

     Looking like another rough day upcoming. Futures hit limit down.

    Reply

     Looking like another rough day upcoming. Futures hit limit down.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 2:44 AM ET #109

    Damn Mugg, you beat me to it..lol.   I was just gonna check the pre- market

    Reply

    Damn Mugg, you beat me to it..lol.   I was just gonna check the pre- market

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 2:46 AM ET #110

    Today's action earlier in the day had all the markings of a dead cat bounce.. 

    Reply

    Today's action earlier in the day had all the markings of a dead cat bounce.. 

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 10:39 AM ET #111

    Regarding BA, if I were a politician I would NOT bail these guys out. I read their press release and holy guilt trip it was sickening to read...laying it on mega thick about how they need the money and the supply chain blah blah blah...

    If I were voting to give money I would say for them to float 100B in stock BEFORE they come knocking..that is the total they blew on buybacks, so go back to the market and sell the stock you bought back you freaking morons. If they were to float back what they debt soaked purchased then the stock would be at FAIR VALUE...even the price today give me a freaking break. Look at a long term chart, Boeing does not deserve to be over 30 given the mess they are in.

    But watch Trump and the GOP senators will give them a handout because Boeing pays their salaries and keeps them in office.

    Reply

    Regarding BA, if I were a politician I would NOT bail these guys out. I read their press release and holy guilt trip it was sickening to read...laying it on mega thick about how they need the money and the supply chain blah blah blah...

    If I were voting to give money I would say for them to float 100B in stock BEFORE they come knocking..that is the total they blew on buybacks, so go back to the market and sell the stock you bought back you freaking morons. If they were to float back what they debt soaked purchased then the stock would be at FAIR VALUE...even the price today give me a freaking break. Look at a long term chart, Boeing does not deserve to be over 30 given the mess they are in.

    But watch Trump and the GOP senators will give them a handout because Boeing pays their salaries and keeps them in office.

     
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 11:19 AM ET #112

     WSC....I wouldn't bail out any airline either. These corksuckers have done the same thing, on top of soaking their customers for fees during the last oil crunch. Funny they didn't do away with any of those fees after oil dropped $100/barrel.

    Reply

     WSC....I wouldn't bail out any airline either. These corksuckers have done the same thing, on top of soaking their customers for fees during the last oil crunch. Funny they didn't do away with any of those fees after oil dropped $100/barrel.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 11:24 AM ET #113

    I agree , Wall.   This behavior on stock buybacks is just destructive behavior.  All these stock buybacks (for all companies) haven't done much good for the average investor out there.  All of those buybacks since the tax cuts are now underwater.  Is that the best use of capital for companies?  I'm a free market guy, but the use of buybacks IMHO doesn't serve the best interests of the investor, and serves the interest in companies to financially engineer their earnings.  At least in the form of dividends, I have a choice of whether to receive the money as cash or re-invested in the stock.  I have no such option with buybacks.  Some people will say "dividends are not as tax-efficient" as a buyback, but I'd rather pay 15% on something, rather than 0% on nothing. 

    Reply

    I agree , Wall.   This behavior on stock buybacks is just destructive behavior.  All these stock buybacks (for all companies) haven't done much good for the average investor out there.  All of those buybacks since the tax cuts are now underwater.  Is that the best use of capital for companies?  I'm a free market guy, but the use of buybacks IMHO doesn't serve the best interests of the investor, and serves the interest in companies to financially engineer their earnings.  At least in the form of dividends, I have a choice of whether to receive the money as cash or re-invested in the stock.  I have no such option with buybacks.  Some people will say "dividends are not as tax-efficient" as a buyback, but I'd rather pay 15% on something, rather than 0% on nothing. 

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 11:43 AM ET #114

    Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

    WSC....I wouldn't bail out any airline either. These corksuckers have done the same thing, on top of soaking their customers for fees during the last oil crunch. Funny they didn't do away with any of those fees after oil dropped $100/barrel.

    Funny my wife and I were discussing this exact thing yesterday. Airlines have treated customers like cattle, I would not bail out ANY of them...their gouging and compartmentalizing customers is awful...

    I say live by leverage and die by it...

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG:

    WSC....I wouldn't bail out any airline either. These corksuckers have done the same thing, on top of soaking their customers for fees during the last oil crunch. Funny they didn't do away with any of those fees after oil dropped $100/barrel.

    Funny my wife and I were discussing this exact thing yesterday. Airlines have treated customers like cattle, I would not bail out ANY of them...their gouging and compartmentalizing customers is awful...

    I say live by leverage and die by it...

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 11:46 AM ET #115

    Well I am not a socialist or a communist but Id say its about time to put the full kabosh on buybacks...put a rule in that for the next ten years corps cannot buy stock back period.

    And yep it is fact that corps got the Trump tax freebie and tax cuts and used it on buybacks and dividends...it serves them right that they get their butt kicked on selfish greedy behavior..and I hope those activist dopes who forced corps to buyback stock are getting it across the face too. Short term greed for long term pain means if you are wrong the pain should be felt and thats how it goes.

    Reply

    Well I am not a socialist or a communist but Id say its about time to put the full kabosh on buybacks...put a rule in that for the next ten years corps cannot buy stock back period.

    And yep it is fact that corps got the Trump tax freebie and tax cuts and used it on buybacks and dividends...it serves them right that they get their butt kicked on selfish greedy behavior..and I hope those activist dopes who forced corps to buyback stock are getting it across the face too. Short term greed for long term pain means if you are wrong the pain should be felt and thats how it goes.

     
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 12:38 PM ET #116

     Man, it's hard to refrain from jumping back in the market. I keep hearing Mel Gibson in "Braveheart" yelling "HOLD!.......HOLD!"

    Reply

     Man, it's hard to refrain from jumping back in the market. I keep hearing Mel Gibson in "Braveheart" yelling "HOLD!.......HOLD!"

     
    Rush51
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 1:24 PM ET #117

    It's been far too long that we haven't heard a lick at all from Warren Buffet.   I expect companies in the near future to be knocking on Uncle Warren's door soon, like they did during the financial crisis..  GE, Bank of America, Goldman Slacks..  All those and more used his company as a lifeline with preferred stock, etc..  Warren o' Warren..  You're being paged !   

    Reply

    It's been far too long that we haven't heard a lick at all from Warren Buffet.   I expect companies in the near future to be knocking on Uncle Warren's door soon, like they did during the financial crisis..  GE, Bank of America, Goldman Slacks..  All those and more used his company as a lifeline with preferred stock, etc..  Warren o' Warren..  You're being paged !   

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 1:40 PM ET #118

    Warren is sitting on his capitalist throne waiting for the greedy selfish money grubbing bailout phone calls from corps that he can take advantage of like he did before.

    He is a crook with a knife and a smile, I really dislike him. His successes have been when he has an unfair advantage or when he takes a pipe to the head of the other party.

     

    Reply

    Warren is sitting on his capitalist throne waiting for the greedy selfish money grubbing bailout phone calls from corps that he can take advantage of like he did before.

    He is a crook with a knife and a smile, I really dislike him. His successes have been when he has an unfair advantage or when he takes a pipe to the head of the other party.

     

     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 1:52 PM ET #119

    I think the bigger issue than this virus is oil...someone is laying some lumber to crude and this is an attempt to knock out our fraudulent shale industry.

    But hey oil is at 21 and our gas is still at 2.80

    Capitalism is the greatest.

    Reply

    I think the bigger issue than this virus is oil...someone is laying some lumber to crude and this is an attempt to knock out our fraudulent shale industry.

    But hey oil is at 21 and our gas is still at 2.80

    Capitalism is the greatest.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 2:45 PM ET #120

    The world is definitely not right when Tom Brady is expected to sign with another team.  What next ?!  Lol...

    Reply

    The world is definitely not right when Tom Brady is expected to sign with another team.  What next ?!  Lol...

     
    Rush51
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 2:48 PM ET #121

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    I think the bigger issue than this virus is oil...someone is laying some lumber to crude and this is an attempt to knock out our fraudulent shale industry. But hey oil is at 21 and our gas is still at 2.80 Capitalism is the greatest.

    No doubt , Wall.. Saudis and Russians are clearly set out to take a wrecking ball to U.S. shale.  I heard days before that SA is planning to take production to 13mbpd from 9mbpd.   And I hear you about gas prices.. I was shocked to see they'd barely budged at all around here.  Big Oil is clearly looking at their refining operations to pick up some of the slack from the upstream operations that are just getting creamed..

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    I think the bigger issue than this virus is oil...someone is laying some lumber to crude and this is an attempt to knock out our fraudulent shale industry. But hey oil is at 21 and our gas is still at 2.80 Capitalism is the greatest.

    No doubt , Wall.. Saudis and Russians are clearly set out to take a wrecking ball to U.S. shale.  I heard days before that SA is planning to take production to 13mbpd from 9mbpd.   And I hear you about gas prices.. I was shocked to see they'd barely budged at all around here.  Big Oil is clearly looking at their refining operations to pick up some of the slack from the upstream operations that are just getting creamed..

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 4:03 PM ET #122

    This market is dysfunctional, watching the close and within the last two minutes of trading the DOW moved 1200 points, it went from 19500 or so to almost 20k back to 19,550 and closed at 19,900 so within a two minute period the market moved like 7 percent.

    Pull up a minute chart and the craziness is right there to see.

    Reply

    This market is dysfunctional, watching the close and within the last two minutes of trading the DOW moved 1200 points, it went from 19500 or so to almost 20k back to 19,550 and closed at 19,900 so within a two minute period the market moved like 7 percent.

    Pull up a minute chart and the craziness is right there to see.

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 4:27 PM ET #123

    I wasn't watching the Dow that closely, but the S&P went from 2280 to 2398 it seemed in a straight line.  It bounced pretty well off the Dec. 2018 lows...

    Reply

    I wasn't watching the Dow that closely, but the S&P went from 2280 to 2398 it seemed in a straight line.  It bounced pretty well off the Dec. 2018 lows...

     
    Rush51
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 4:37 PM ET #124

    The -30% threshold was hit today, only to find the market bounce hard off the levels and end up under the -30% threshold. lol.  Splitting hairs, but one of the pitfalls with mutual funds that price only once a day.  I'm a bit old school, so don't use ETFs except for sector specific investments like XLE, XLF, etc.  

     Back to the Dec. 2018 lows, it represented a -20% drawdown on 12/24/18.    Unusual that  this specific level in the S&P represented a -20% decline back then, and  very close to -30% drawdowns in the market today. 

     

    Reply

    The -30% threshold was hit today, only to find the market bounce hard off the levels and end up under the -30% threshold. lol.  Splitting hairs, but one of the pitfalls with mutual funds that price only once a day.  I'm a bit old school, so don't use ETFs except for sector specific investments like XLE, XLF, etc.  

     Back to the Dec. 2018 lows, it represented a -20% drawdown on 12/24/18.    Unusual that  this specific level in the S&P represented a -20% decline back then, and  very close to -30% drawdowns in the market today. 

     

     
     
    THEMUGG
    THEMUGG
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2020 - 4:38 PM ET #125

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    This market is dysfunctional, watching the close and within the last two minutes of trading the DOW moved 1200 points, it went from 19500 or so to almost 20k back to 19,550 and closed at 19,900 so within a two minute period the market moved like 7 percent. Pull up a minute chart and the craziness is right there to see.

     It's bizarre. I kind of get it though.........buyers are thinking "bottom" while sellers are still trying to dump, vice-versa, so on & so forth. Whether the virus scare is contained in a week or two, there's still damage downstream, I believe. I'm trying to stay patient.

     Think of the heyday the airlines would be having right now without the virus scare...

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    This market is dysfunctional, watching the close and within the last two minutes of trading the DOW moved 1200 points, it went from 19500 or so to almost 20k back to 19,550 and closed at 19,900 so within a two minute period the market moved like 7 percent. Pull up a minute chart and the craziness is right there to see.

     It's bizarre. I kind of get it though.........buyers are thinking "bottom" while sellers are still trying to dump, vice-versa, so on & so forth. Whether the virus scare is contained in a week or two, there's still damage downstream, I believe. I'm trying to stay patient.

     Think of the heyday the airlines would be having right now without the virus scare...

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