I AM gambling. Never said I was “investing” or knew what the hell I was doing. Just enjoying learning every day about the market rather than follow every sport known to man. gotta transition outta that life for a few years.but you are indeed correct. Too much volatility , but that’s what the last 16 years of my life has been. started 2004 in college when moneymaker won the WSOP main event and everyone flocked online. I was playing on full tilt at stakes I had no business playing, but learned along the way. 7 years later everything was shut down and I transitioned to sports. Now that they’re back I want nothing to do with them. Lol. the messed up part is I’m on my phone MORE now than I was “capping” sports. market closes here at 3. yet i can’t stay off the forums till I go to bed. “Life’s a gamble”.
There is no bones about it. Options trading IS gambling. Gamble, you yourself have articulated the point well when you "cap" the time period. I might just as well "cap" the Angels baseball game in a 3 hour period of time. It's gambling, and should be treated as such.. I don't treat my stock portfolio as such, and never will.
A simple question to ask as it relates to "long term " investing is this....do you think the American economy will expand over a long period of time. This is the question one should ask, and is the point Buffett drives home time after time after time....
The American ingenuity is second to none, and is why we should all embrace free market capitalism ...
Each award-winning fund has outperformed its benchmark for the past one, three, five and 10 years. Among funds at least 10 years old, that's a feat only 20% of funds can claim. IBD compared the performance of 3,374 funds that have been around for at least 10 years and found that 691 beat their benchmark index in those four periods.
Yes. I would read up more about the bet between them and the analysis of it. The 2008 market set the stage for a later bailout for Buffet, because he was behind. For example, he would have lost a bet like that up to 2007 or so.
But it is comparing two very different strategies.
Whereas a mutual fund is not a hedging method as such and can be more naturally aggressive and works very well during, say, a raging bull market. Not as well during a downturn. Etc etc.
There is a detailed link if you ever get interested.
But by and large I am talking aggressive growth mutual funds.
Sure, there are great ones. Any screener can pull them out for you.
Fidelity Growth Company (FDGRX, $19.67)
Launched just two years before the tech-bubble burst of 2000, Fidelity Select IT Services (FBSOX, $70.99)
Back in 1984, OTC meant Nasdaq, and Nasdaq meant tech. It still means tech at Fidelity OTC (FOCPX, $11.57)
For a fund with "internet" in its name, Kinetics Internet No Load (WWWFX, $32.71) is remarkably diversified
You usually think about big pharmaceutical companies when you think about health care, but PGIM Jennison Health Sciences Z (PHSZX, $44.23)
Health care has become more dependent on technology, and the combination of the two has been a winner for Fidelity Select Medical Technology and Devices (FSMEX, $55.24).
Micro-cap stocks – typically thought of as companies between $50 million and $300 million in market value – are poorly followed by Wall Street analysts, which should give savvy investors an edge.
Wasatch Micro Cap (WMICX, $7.46)
Fidelity Select Software & IT Services (FSCSX, $18.45)
Just for kicks, I looked at that first Fidelity Fund. (FDGRX). Wow, it might as well be called the Fidelity Tech Fund.
Here is the top 10 portfolio holdings ;
NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, SHOP, MSFT, LULU, GOOGL, CRM, MRNA, GOOG
8 of the 10 stocks are tech stocks, and these 10 stocks represent more than 45% of the portfolio !!
OUCH !!! Talk about non-diversification.
I suppose to answer our earlier discussion. Yes, it can be done to beat the S&P index, but at what risk. I noted the fund is closed , but there is now way I commit a large percentage of my portfolio to something like this. Very highly leveraged to tech.
Don't get me wrong, the S&P is not very well diversified at the top 4 or 5 of its holding, representing close to 25% of the index.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P represent close to 27% of the index, so you can see how the market caps of numbers 6-10 trails off big time from the "Five Horsemen."
OK , for the second one , Fidelity Select IT Services (FBSOX,), I didn't even bother to dig into, because it describes itself a "tech" fund. At least it doesn't hide from its tech representation.
Let's take a look at the 3rd one. (FOCPX). Here are the top 10 Holding of this fund , representing almost 50% of its portfolio !!!
MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB, GOOG, TSLA, SBUX, LULU, and Reliance Industries (Never heard of them . lol)
- You'll note the top 5 are a near carbon copy of the S&P 500 index
- You pay an expense ratio of 0.89% for this hard work from them (sarcasm).
This has been a good, brief exercise to "kick the tires" on some funds that have beaten the S&P500 over extended periods. I have noted many times in this thread how "uncomfortable" I am with the "bifurcation" that has taken place in this market. There are the haves (mostly tech) , and the have nots (mostly everyone else). These 3 funds I looked at take this approach with steroids. There are Large Cap Funds out there that can beat the average, but do so with a "heavier concentration on tech." People should be careful what they are getting themselves into when considering these funds, because these are not diversified funds, and are even worse than the top heavy tech exposure in the S&P 500..
There were 25 listed. I selected a variety. To be honest: if you want diversity—get a variety of funds that are not one or two sector-heavy.
I do not care that they are an S&P copy. I only care that they out-perform it. If you get a variety that are not a copy — you also diversify.
I am sure some are closed and some are not. I am sure there are some that have large minimums and some that do not.
None of that matters in the discussion. The only thing that matters is that you should have some of these if you want to make more and diversify your portfolio—instead of just having S&P funds.
There are obviously more than 25. That link just listed 25 since inception that have consistently beaten the market since inception — some way longer than 20 years.
Where is the risk? Compared to what? S&P?
The ancillary point is that there are others that can be screened out that are/will be up and coming that will do the same thing. Dig in, follow advice, research and get some of these up and comers as well — if you don’t trust 30 steady years of a track record already produced.
You already say S&P is too tech heavy. I agree. So why not get something proven to be better year in and year out? And get a few different from several sectors?
You already do this yourself and have a selection that is varied.
So why not let experts do it for you? Weed out the ones that have heavy fees, new managers, etc.
The link in case you want to look at the others. More varied than you think.
Even if they all were tech heavy instead of healthcare or mid-caps, etc. — they would be better to have a few than just S&P. Maybe they do a better job of simply picking the right S&P stocks to get in and out of?
https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/t041-s001-the-25-best-mutual-funds-of-all-time/index.html
Raiders.. lots of good stuff to dig deeper into. Appreciate it. When I have more time on my hands , I'll look deeper into those links in greater detail. To be fair, the universe of funds that have beaten the s&p is smaller than we think. For example, a mid cap growth fund should not be compared to the s&p 500, but to its underlying index, instead (i.e. mid cap core index) . I don't know about you, but i keep a diversified portfolio of large cap ( which includes s&p funds), mid cap, small cap, and international funds. So, finding a star performer in the mid cap area would not be considered as a replacement/ supplement to my large cap exposure. I would need to analyze it for my mid cap exposure.. You get the picture.
Also, any thorough analysis should also consider not only costs/fees , but portfolio turnover. Nobody likes to get hit over the head w nasty capital gains come tax time.
Like I elude to, this is not a cursory exercise, but one that involves a bit of detailed analysis and factors to weigh on the performance of a fund to its underlying index.
You can screen them against the appropriate index.
One link I sent before showed the ones that beat their tracking index, etc.
The point I am trying to make is, not how many there are, but that there are plenty enough with a long and consistent track record of doing it. So, it can and is being done.
Yes. In order to be fair you have to beat the costs. They are listed and factored in as well.
Capital gains are what they are — no matter what you invest in. That doesn’t matter about which ones beat the S&P, etc.
Another good week for the markets , which is surprising in light of Stimulus talks making no progress, and a rapidly deteriorating relationship w/ China. On the stimulus front, frankly I am surprised that investors are "seeing through" this negative development. They are assuredly "pricing in" a deal, whatever that may be..On the China front, WeChat and TikTok will be banned from the U.S. if not sold by Chinese parent companies. I think I may have mentioned this earlier, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things ratchet up further before the election. Taiwan, Vietnam, U.S. , and Australia are already sailing "freedom of navigation" patrols in the S. China Sea. It is clear to me that Trump understands his re-election chances as minimal, and he can point the finger squarely at China for his troubles. Trump will do all he can to make life difficult for China in these coming months. Is Apple paying attention ? I pointed out months ago how they sit squarely in the sights of China manufacturing and any China retaliatory measures ; they are more exposed than any other company, and the world's most valuable publicly traded company to boot. Can we say that investors are "complacent" or "naive" ?? Maybe there's a little bit of both.
Like the S&P 500, my portfolio is near all-time-highs hit in February, and I've been building a small cash position on this ride up since March Lows. Not a lot, but "schnitzling" (i.e. selling) here and there along the way, most recently around 10 days or so. I'm ready to take advantage of any big pullback, but if none comes, I'll continue to ride this crazy balloon ride higher
Be prepared for a lot of volatility if you're loading up on travel stocks. The Robinhood trading community loves airlines stocks, cruise lines, apple, microsoft, amazon, hertz, tesla, and whole host of others that have been bid up tremendously. I read this about a week or so ago... Noted Economist Mohamed El-Erian also mentioned how the whole Robinhood trading community has bid up stock prices, similar to what occurred in the internet bubble in the early 2000s when stock trading had first become "more democratized." The big difference now is that these trades are all "commission-free," but the common thread to the 2000s is the mania and excitement to become involved in the stock market. I agree with El-Erian in this observation.
The markets sure did a U-turn in the last hour or so of trading. Was it the nomination of Kamala Harris as Biden's VP ? Was it the Big10 & Pac12 cancelling their fall football ? Was it the S&P coming within a whisker of its all time high (<0.5%). Before this U-turn today, the value stocks had really outperformed big tech today and yesterday... People talk about this "rotation" from growth to value, but this to me speaks of a tired big tech rally. When they falter, the rest of the market hasn't shown itself to be solid enough to sustain the rally over a long period of time.
We shall see... The market has had a helluva run since the March 23rd bottom..
Paging raiders. Paging raiders.
one last question about “trailing stops”
So I had 135 calls for walmart expiring this Friday. Of course it was driven up to 144 pre market as they blew the doors off earnings. YET it tanked and opened and closes RED.
Also had 300 calls for Home Depot expiring this Friday. It hit 294 pre market and of course opened and closed RED.
I need help understanding what planet I am on. Since I had calls , there is no chance I could’ve taken profits during NON MARKET hours correct? every fuktard sold everything after they pumped it and I had to take losses on BOTH? please tell me that this trailing stop wouldn’t have been triggered before market open. I had to wait till 930 to realize how much money Was gone. 15 grand I would roughly guess was lost in potential profits due to the massive sell off yet I still cannot explain.
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