The Stock Market - A daily diary

So, the bull market lasted an incredible 11 years and two days.  (we need a bull emoji here. lol)

So now the NCAA tournament will play to empty arenas for all 68 teams in the field. Ditto that for the Golden State Warriors. All tickets will be refunded. Cities nationwide will be deprived of millions upon millions of NCAA revenue. Is this the panic everyone wanted to see? Is this necessary? So many questions and so few answers. 

How can you put any valuation on a market price without the E component. 

You have officially entered the stock market "Twilight Zone" where everything for the foreseeable future will be a guess.

It was one hell of a Bull Rush....and I was in there for every bit of it. Time to give some back and pay the piper....but we will survive.

Wow, we can add the NBA to the mix.  Play of the entire league has been suspended due to a Utah Jazz player becoming infected..   These are uncertain times, but we will persevere.   I like your positive thinking Gamble.  

This is no doubt and without question a very serious issue. The country will be on lockdown for several months. Tons of more cancellations will follow. The Masters? The WSOP? The MLB baseball season? 

They will all exclude fans and perhaps will not be played at all. This is just common sense. There will be more panic on Wall Street and it's going to be a bumpy ride for sure. All of that said, this will pass. The Chicken Little's of the world will preach to you otherwise and some of them are actually rooting for it to happen in regard to the economic destruction that will happen. 

This will pass. The world will survive. The appropriate measures will be put in place. China has already banned street markets selling bats and snakes and whatever crap they ate that started this whole thing. Let's hope there isn't a black market for that garbage.

Here's a stock headline.. Tesla is worth more than Boeing.   Just 1 year ago, Boeing had a market capitalization nearly 4x Tesla.   I know which company I'd rather own for the long haul.   I'm really disappointed w Boeing in the way they handled the 737 max crashes , not to mention the engineering gaffes and culture of arrogance that led to the disasters.  I hope they have cut out all of the cancer of this company.   This was another proud company just not that long ago 

Gamble, the news just seems to grow exponentially worse w all these cases.  Today, the WHO finally labeled it a pandemic,  Utah Jazz player has it, Tom Hanks  and wife have it.   If we truly want to get a handle on this , we do really  need a lockdown .  

BA drawing down on their revolver is a BIG deal...that is a sign of panic in my mind. When I saw that I was shocked...they are thinking banks are gonna start cutting credit lines and not honoring agreements.

Lets see how the market does today...to me there is not a huge reason to go in and buy with all the uncertainty out there especially with friday still to come.

BA drawing down on their revolver is a BIG deal...that is a sign of panic in my mind. When I saw that I was shocked...they are thinking banks are gonna start cutting credit lines and not honoring agreements.

Lets see how the market does today...to me there is not a huge reason to go in and buy with all the uncertainty out there especially with friday still to come.

Oh and let me get this straight....all the morons calling for tax cut this and payroll tax cut that, this is the answer????

Brilliant...lets give the little guy a tax reprieve but then the tax is still owed later and lets give businesses looser credit and more breaks, that should make the whole thing go away.

Added some XLE, orders in for DVN and COP lets see how it goes.

Wall, just curious... what levels or piece of news would you wait for before putting new money to work in the overall market.  Just heard the number of 52-week lows is around 62% of companies.  The only other time this occurred was in 2008.  This is pure, outright panic IMHO.   Indiscriminate selling is just about everywhere it seems.  OXY is up on the day, though.. Lol. 

Speaking of Boeing again, this is a company that has been really punished this week (perhaps justifiably).  I had looked at this name last year, but investors never sold off on this name despite all of its problems.  I have confidence the company will fix the toxic culture that led to its issues.  It has already fired a number of mid-level managers that fixated on costs over safety. The company operates in an effective duopoly with Airbus.  Looks to be a compelling long-term investment at these prices...

Wall, Carl Icahn will be on Fast Money tomorrow at 9:30AM PST (on CNBC).  He is expected to talk plenty about OXY.   I've heard he's amassing a 10% stake in the company.  You can bet he will be looking to get a board seat or two, and fix the toxic culture that still exists in upper management at this company.  I've heard him speak before about OXY, and he doesn't have very nice things to say about Vicki H. (their CEO).  Lol.

Sorry I was getting posting error so I could not reply. I saw OXY is up pretty big, that makes sense as to why.

As to my thoughts about longer term money, if the market drops below 20k I will put 30% of my long term money in...and maybe some risk capital in that is not retirement money. Then if they drop to 15k I will do another 35% and to 10k I will chuck in the rest.

Icahn is all about what is wrong with the market btw...he is only about enriching himself at the detriment of the company. He has sunk many companies by forcing buybacks and dividend hikes. How are all those dumb companies who have been buying stock back feeling now that they are under water on this debt fueled buyback binge?

Look at a long term chart on Boeing...are they in buy territory from a LONG term perspective? I do not think so at all.

The reason I went out on DVN even though their divi isnt as high as some others like COP and XOM, they said some smart things today and are selling off some shale assets and lowering CAPEX...and the divi is good enough plus the risk/reward seems reasonable. I need more flip it money so I could buy some Sunoco and more Shell and some others I want. I'd like to nail down some plays and let them sit for ten years...

Wall, valid points on Icahn.  I haven't followed him closely enough to know he's harmed companies in the past.  If he's engaged in behavior in the past that encourages companies to take on more debt , more unnecessary risk, then I'm against that of course.  Often times, these guys come in to clean up inefficient operations in companies, and yes, sometimes that means layoffs of people, and cleaning up the balance sheet.  I don't like people getting laid off, but it happens..  What's ironic about the current situation w/ Icahn and OXY is that he's actually against their  behavior in taking on more unnecessary debt.    And that debt was HUGE in buying a company nearly its own size, and what appears to be absolutely terrible timing in oil prices.

Good for you Wall in your target thressholds for entry points in the market.  Heck, I just might get my -30% threshold in the market the same week of my -20% threshold.  Strange days indeed.. 

Yeah my long term stuff has been in cash for a LONG LONG time...lets see if maybe tomorrow I get to put some onto the roulette table.

Carl has a long track record of going in and ousting insiders then putting his people in and encouraging buybacks and divi increases. In doing so it makes investors happy, he makes money and that is all he cares about...he is like that schmuck Buffet, its all greed and self enrichment.

Sorry for the late reply Rush. Apparently I was temporarily boxed and was unable to post for the second time in the past two weeks. I have since contacted Covers to defend my words and opinions expressed within this forum. While my commentary can be viewed as pointed and perhaps cynical at times, I always treat people here with respect. Miraculously, after voicing my opinion to the higher ups at Covers, I am able to post again. It is my opinion that this was not a posting error but an attempt at "cover" for the real issue at hand. It is a sad commentary on society when freedoms of speech permit the continuous slander of our POTUS yet indiscriminately stifle an opposing point of view. This is coming from someone that did not vote for Trump. 

Moving on, the markets will find stability now that the country is in lockdown mode but I have no predictions for how long that will take to happen.

I'm still waiting for the announcement that all "non-essential travel" be banned immediately here in the U.S.  I'm afraid this might be the only way to stem a steep escalation in cases..  CDC needs to step up.  It and the WHO have woefully inadequate throughout this whole mess.  Seriously, this can't come as a complete surprise ; it should be part of what they train and prepare for. 

Good to have you back, Gamble... 

I have a dashboard of about 40 stocks that I look at daily.  The stocks I own are included, but also have about 30 stocks or so I look at across a broad swath of sectors..   Some observations today from stocks we don't usually talk about.

Citi was down around -15%, the largest of the banks that I follow..

Constellation Brands down around -15% .  Really ?  Who the hell is smoking less weed, and/or drinking less beer in these times.  I would argue this increase in times of distress, which is one reason why I own them and DEO. 

Bed Bath and Below (formerly know as Bed Bath and Beyond. lol) is down almost -16%.  Unfortunately, I think this retailer is perilously close to failure.  Another victim of Amazon that didn't adjust.

Boeing down -18% yesterday, and an additional -18% today.  Wall, what's up with Boeing on the credit side.  Did they do the equivalent of borrowing money all the way up to their credit limit ?  If my understanding is correct, that tells us two things ; one , their concern w/ banks as you pointed out, and two, what does this tell us about Boeing's day to day operations ?

Disney down -13%.  They just announced after the bell that themeparks will be closed starting on Saturday.   I started a position in Disney about a week and a half ago.   About a week and a half too early. lol.

yeah on Boeing they drew down their revolver because they thought the banks might shorten or reduce it.

Many names you listed are overbought...DIS at this price come on with that...way too much of a run.

Banks could be in for a world of hurt if these debt monsters get downgraded to junk (shale and oil) they are holding some serious baggage..I hope they all get smacked down hard...they all leveraged off cheap FED funds and thought the party would never end.

So when are we going to see a drop in gas prices since crude is down to 2008 levels and at that time gas was around 1.50? My price here has not budged a single cent.

Gee I wonder why that is....refiners are holding back production to acquire supply and let crude prices go back up if they do and make a killing on the spread.

I can promise you when crude goes up 5 bucks, those refiners are lightning quick on the trigger, but like my friend who works for Sunoco told me that when prices are dropping it just happens that refineries are in maintenance mode for their operations...oopsie.