Posted:
#1
Over 100 messages, time to start a new thread..
September Stock Talk II
Posted:
#3
No panic selling today, so take me to task on my bungled call.
Still holding shorts on SPY, COF, C, and CTX.
Gut feel tells me to expect a vicious short covering "rally" tomorrow that the smart money will sell into all day long.
I'm going to look at this CDRC thing, Vermeer and WSC......will look to maybe do something with it. I have no business trading, though, but am getting intrigued by the idea......bad sign.
Posted:
#6
claycourt,
I could have been wrong, it doesnt matter if we get the calls right all the time..nobody got seriously hurt and we move on.
I think the time for PAIN will be closer to the date of the FED meeting..
SIRI...no thanks, another no thanks for me as it has been in the past. The company has serious financial issues, such dilution and convertible debt makes me never want to own the stock.
I could have been wrong, it doesnt matter if we get the calls right all the time..nobody got seriously hurt and we move on.
I think the time for PAIN will be closer to the date of the FED meeting..
SIRI...no thanks, another no thanks for me as it has been in the past. The company has serious financial issues, such dilution and convertible debt makes me never want to own the stock.
Posted:
#7
If CRDC opens down tomorrow due to a bad job report, I am on it for a day-trade.
I'll have a stop put down, but this looks like money........ONLY IF it opens down in sympathy with the rest of the ticker symbols due to a bad job report.
Now if it opens up.....forget it.
This has a few more hours of rally life before the selling commences.
Posted:
#8
claycourt,
Here is what I think happens..one of two scenarios, based on past experience..
1) Stock opens up and fades hard into the day, ends up down 1-2 pts
2) Stock opens DOWN moderately, meaning 1 pt or so and reverses UP and the trend continues, stock moves higher than the 12 made today.
With an interesting product and a small market cap, the stock could easily go higher...
LOCM went from 4 to 13 with more shares outstanding and a less interesting story than this stock..
What I would like to see is the stock turn into a JSDA or ONXX, somthing that takes longer to develop and the company does it right (not dilute the hell out of the common holder and start selling the product and marketing it) and the stock turns into a HUGE winner..
Here is what I think happens..one of two scenarios, based on past experience..
1) Stock opens up and fades hard into the day, ends up down 1-2 pts
2) Stock opens DOWN moderately, meaning 1 pt or so and reverses UP and the trend continues, stock moves higher than the 12 made today.
With an interesting product and a small market cap, the stock could easily go higher...
LOCM went from 4 to 13 with more shares outstanding and a less interesting story than this stock..
What I would like to see is the stock turn into a JSDA or ONXX, somthing that takes longer to develop and the company does it right (not dilute the hell out of the common holder and start selling the product and marketing it) and the stock turns into a HUGE winner..
Posted:
#11
By the way I talked to a person who knows one of the surgeons who did the procedure here (Katz :" a hell of a surgeon" was the comment before I told him of the procedure) It does seem like it is truly going to revolutionize treatment and recovery times, so that is great news, even if the stock flames out.
Posted:
#12
Oh, another little stat clipped from random readings..
From 1926 - 2006, only ONE month has averaged a negative return for the S&P 500 Index*. Can you guess what month that was?
September
That’s right, only September has averaged a negative monthly return every year since 1926. Another way to look at it: had you invested your money during the month of September every year since 1926, you would have had an average monthly return of -.76%!
The best month?
The best month for the S&P 500 Index historically has been July with an average monthly return of 1.86%.
Posted:
#13
Vermeer-
Something like CRDC--if it moves up---- will move hard and fast in a short squeeze like fashion. You got to anticipate the move before it happens. That's why I want a down open so I have a cushion, so to speak. I could be dead wrong....it could open down, get sold off even harder, obliterate my stop loss order, and then I'm done for the day.
I'll only trade this fucking thing one time......I'm either right or wrong.
That's how I'll do it, so take me to task if I'm wrong.
Good luck
Posted:
#14
As far as when to sell.......
Gut feel will dictate that.....if I can ride the spike up, I got no problem selling right in to strength.
If my stop loss gets blasted, the sell is then.
Since I am not a trader and have no intention of doing this for a long, long time (regardless of what happens tomorrow), a stop-loss is necessary for me to make sure emotion has been taken out of the equation.
Posted:
#15
claycourt,
I have a figure in mind when I do a stop loss..its NEVER on a number (say like 9 bucks or 22.50, any square number) it is what i feel I want to tolerate on a loss..thats how I set my limit. That or if it is a longer term trade I use moving averages.
Stops is what separates winners from losers, me included.
Did a little more research on that CRDC and I guess they sell the product for 800-1000 per..and they are not real equipment, they have a mid term life meaning they will need to be replaced from time to time. Also read that the procedure in question is done over 400,000 times a year in the US..worldwide I have no idea.
Looks interesting, even at a 100M market cap. Comparisons to ISRG were also interesting..
I have a figure in mind when I do a stop loss..its NEVER on a number (say like 9 bucks or 22.50, any square number) it is what i feel I want to tolerate on a loss..thats how I set my limit. That or if it is a longer term trade I use moving averages.
Stops is what separates winners from losers, me included.
Did a little more research on that CRDC and I guess they sell the product for 800-1000 per..and they are not real equipment, they have a mid term life meaning they will need to be replaced from time to time. Also read that the procedure in question is done over 400,000 times a year in the US..worldwide I have no idea.
Looks interesting, even at a 100M market cap. Comparisons to ISRG were also interesting..
Posted:
#16
Yeah, the MMs demolish all the square numbers before moving the prices the other way.
All about tolerance.
Appreciate your input, man, on CRDC. I am not interested in it as far as an investment.....this is simply a trade, but ONLY IF it opens down in sympathy with a lot of negativity from a bad job report. If it opens up, it's a NO GO.
It must open down for me to get interested.
Cheers
Posted:
#17
No way the Fed does NOT cut after this data release which simply confirms the obvious, at least to me, that we are heading down materially in terms of employment.
What we may be witnessing is how American companies can prosper while American workers can go under (thank you globalization).
What we may be witnessing is how American companies can prosper while American workers can go under (thank you globalization).
Posted:
#18
jobs numbersBZH news....
Beazer Homes USA Inc Friday said it has received purported default notices from U.S. Bank National Association, the trustee under the indentures governing several outstanding senior notes. Beazer, an Atlanta-based home builder, in a press release said the notices allege the company is in default because it has not yet filed its quarterly financial report with regulators for the period ended June 30. The notices allege the defaults will become events of default if not remedied within 60 days, Beazer said. The company said it does not believe it is in default and the notices are "invalid and without merit."
Posted:
#19
I have been scratching my head at how people could not think that a housing bust was NOT going to lead to a recession.
I recall looking around in a parking lot, and seeing nothing but shiny new pickup trucks. Some Jags, some Beamers, but mainly pickups.
A friend remarked to me:"This is what you get when a lot of people in the construction trade strike it rich, or think they have."
Now plenty of people drive pick up trucks, don't get me wrong, it was not a snob comment, nut it did make me think of the number of jobs housing and construction creates. It is truly enormous.
I do not think the Fed can reinflate that particular balloon again. again, no matter what it does.
I recall looking around in a parking lot, and seeing nothing but shiny new pickup trucks. Some Jags, some Beamers, but mainly pickups.
A friend remarked to me:"This is what you get when a lot of people in the construction trade strike it rich, or think they have."
Now plenty of people drive pick up trucks, don't get me wrong, it was not a snob comment, nut it did make me think of the number of jobs housing and construction creates. It is truly enormous.
I do not think the Fed can reinflate that particular balloon again. again, no matter what it does.
Posted:
#20
vermeer
im in the housing market to buy...looking at new construction. a friend of my wife's actually lives in the development where she loves
they bought a year ago at X. the list price on the builders website is now 6% less. that does not count incentives, negotiation etc
ive been telling her to wait for 18 months that the crash was coming with ARM resets, bubble bursting, etc...happy i'm right or at least on the way to being right
anyway, mother in law was in NC and looking at homes. she pulled out a Beazer brochure. i told her to wait 6 months and buy it for 40% off then they are starving for cash
im in the housing market to buy...looking at new construction. a friend of my wife's actually lives in the development where she loves
they bought a year ago at X. the list price on the builders website is now 6% less. that does not count incentives, negotiation etc
ive been telling her to wait for 18 months that the crash was coming with ARM resets, bubble bursting, etc...happy i'm right or at least on the way to being right
anyway, mother in law was in NC and looking at homes. she pulled out a Beazer brochure. i told her to wait 6 months and buy it for 40% off then they are starving for cash
Posted:
#21
Exactly...I think if you go further south, to south Florida, you will see and get even better discounts.The mid Atlantic has not really blown up as much as Florida ever did.
That being said, I have been visiting new, partially completed subdivisions in my area. I think there is a fire sale in progress, which will only worsen.
That being said, I have been visiting new, partially completed subdivisions in my area. I think there is a fire sale in progress, which will only worsen.
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