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September Stock Talk II

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Posted: #76
Interesting action on NABI today, not worth chasing since I dont think the news is all that great, but a nice move in a stock I follow..  

FSLR is a tough one to crack no doubt about it..I think the upside has to be capped to a degree with that terrible second they did, sellers will come in if the stock goes too high, but it sure doesnt seem to want to drop, which it should...stock deserves to be at 40 bucks...
 
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Posted: #77
Yeah, I know, and I got to do something with what I have left. 
 
The 111 cost basis is not cheap, but I am thankful for selling 75% of my stake in it during its run the day before the earnings release.
 
Let's face it, this is buoyed by one thing......SHORT INTEREST.
 
Manipulators that want fast money can use this to their advantage, and that's what's going on today.  Manipulators are fucking with the shorts.
 
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Posted: #78
with that monster second, the effect on a short push is reduced though.

The more they float, the larger the pool..

I think the short interest has to be lower than a few months ago..the beta has dropped and the volatility has reduced..but they still price those options OUTRAGEOUSLY on the stock..out of contol.

I need to get me 100k in crazy trading funds and short calls ability (I have never even tried to get the authorization, too much of a temptation) because selling calls on this stock is making someone very wealthy..
 
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Posted: #79
Yeah, selling naked calls is the best way to go short on something.....no freakin doubt.
 
WSC-
 
These solar companies could best be shorted AFTER news of some big contract hits the wires.....the dumb money comes in as the smart money sells to them.....then it drops.  Happens about, oh, 95% of the time. 
 
Selling naked overpriced calls on this thing......hell even 3 strikes out in the expiration month would net easy, EASY money.
 
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Posted: #80
Am looking for the broad market to sell off these last 2 hours as hand-wringng will set in.
 
Won't be shocked to see a confession in after hours.
 
Cheers, guys. 
 
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Posted: #81
claycourt,

I dont see it..sell off that is.

You are right about the lenders, they are down today even with overall market strength.

To me this smells like a +200 dow day and 45 or so on the Naz..very little selling so far today and I think she goes HIGHER.

Look at drillers and refiners, soft today..might be time to tap a few of these on shorts..  
 
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Posted: #82
I'm not current on the oil biz, at all.  Sucks, but the truth.
 
I got to be current to try a short.  Am also terrified of shorting oil with terrorist attacks and shit.....just can't do it.
 
Call me a chicken-shit, but I ain't shorting anything oil related.
 
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Posted: #83
claycourt,

Drillers and refiners make money off the difference between what they drill and what the price of crude is, but even MORE so the margin between the price they get for refining products, crude into nat gas, unleaded etc and what the price of crude is.

As someone listed a few days ago, the spreads between the refined products and the price of crude have come down quite a bit which means less profits.

So looking at 75 a barrel might be misleading as to the value of oil stocks..especially refiners.
 
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Posted: #84
Good points.  Yeah, man, I know what each does, but like I said, I am not current (so I am not familiar with how these ticker symbols move) enough to handicap emotional sentiment for a short term bet.
 
Good call on broad market extending its rally into last 2 hours....I was wrong, but am lucky I took the FSLR bet off the board.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #85
Any thoughts on GIGM's move lately or AEO today?
 
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Posted: #86
For a very short-term "trade" only, I can see CFC having some money houses hype them in the next few days so they can clear some more of their inventories.  Additionally, rumors are making the rounds of another bailout package coming.
 
But to do this, you got to hit it BEFORE all this becomes public, cause then the move will have already taken place.  And it'll take balls, cause we all know some confessions are coming.
 
What I can say is that chasing a short on CFC could give you a bad case of whipsaw, so don't do it unless you have inside info on something.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #87
claycourt,

I dont know if I want to fight the tape long on CFC, trading like dog crap..

Funny thing is if their earnings and revenues come down like they should, it is probably fairly valued right here...it isnt a cheap stock at all if their revenues get cut in half and profits go away..so many issues out there and it wont unwind for a very long time.


 
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Posted: #88
Instead of selling naked calls what do you think of a credit spread? Like for cfc...if you sold oct 20's and bought oct 22.50 seems like not much risk.  Or maybe fslr sell the oct 120's and buy the 125's?  Both cases stock would have to move up pretty big % to lose.  Just throwing it out there..I can't do it now but in process of getting higher approval level and starting to learn more about different strategies.
 
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Posted: #89
Grinder,

Exactly..both strategies require the higher approval level..

But yeah it definately is safer to do a credit spread, locks in the loss.

I would probably sell the crap out of longer term calls on those ultra high beta stocks..

For example, the March 150s on FSLR are going for 5 bucks..stock has to move 50% in 7 months to beat you..

Or the 170s are going for 2 and change. I like the odds of risk on that naked call..

Speaking of that it looks like someone sold naked the march 45 puts, a square 200 lot went today..tell me that isnt a naked seller..


 
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Posted: #90
Those puts are nuts but damn thats a nice credit to the account.  Wonder who was on the long side of that trade, kind of weird.
 
Even IDMI sept 2.50 calls had similar volume.  Even though its only a nickel its a "free" 1,000 to the seller.  Man, one wrong gamble though and its bankruptcy. 
 
 
 
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Posted: #91
cool guy:
 
AEO is a great buy right now in my opinion.  I went long a month ago or so at 23.30, sold at 25.50 and now have bought back in at 23.26 on monday. 
 
the ceo purchased $20mm in shares yesterday.  it looks like it is dipping in pre-market after that huge run yesterday, but i like a hold on this through christmas.  however, if it bumps up to 26 or so again, i might just sell it for a quick trade. 
 
that being said, i still don't know all that much about trading stocks. 
 
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Posted: #92
I would have loved to have seen this...

Just days before American Home's bankruptcy filing, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae terminated the company's loan-servicing rights. They also sent representatives to collect loan files from American Home's servicing facility in Irving, Texas.

In court documents, American Home said Ginnie Mae representatives "stood in a line in front of the doors and sat on the stairs, preventing AHM Servicing employees from entering the office." Freddie Mac said American Home "had its security personnel escort the Freddie Mac representatives out."


LMAO


 
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Posted: #93
fyi

CFC is looking for another "investor/bailout"...rumor has them in bed with GS, JPM, or C

why these guys keep putting lipstick on a pig is beyond me

or...they are all so intertwined they will do anything to save their own asses...that includes propping up a turd
 
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Posted: #94
Exactly why it would be dangerous to short them...too many interests in play colluding to prop them up.

CRDC has this out today:

Cardica, Inc. today announced that it has received European CE Mark (Conformite Europeenne) approval for the C-Port(R) Flex A Anastomosis System. The C-Port Flex A system is a variation of Cardica's C-Port(R) xA Distal Anastomosis System product line and further facilitates the automated anastomosis, or attachment of blood vessels and grafts, during less invasive coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) procedures. Recently, two independent groups of leading cardiothoracic surgeons in the U.S. performed minimally invasive, closed-chest bypass procedures using Cardica's C-Port Flex A Anastomosis System and Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci(R) Surgical System.

"We are pleased that the European authorities have approved the use of the Flex A. We continue to receive positive feedback from cardiothoracic surgeons in the U.S. who are using the C-Port Flex A to perform ground-breaking closed- chest and beating heart procedures," said Bernard A. Hausen, M.D., Ph.D., president and chief executive officer of Cardica, Inc. "The C-Port Flex A is designed to enable surgeons to create compliant, reliable anastomoses in sternum-sparing bypass procedures, even in difficult to reach areas of the heart."


 
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Posted: #95
Vermeer,

Yep...I see the nice move today, and screw me for selling because of some stupid analyst...


 
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Posted: #96
Ah is going back down...this will continue to be volatile obviously...I think it is a solid play longer term,  too many very favorable comments by surgeons who have used it.This drew my notice at the end of that article:

"We believe the C-Port Flex A system brings us several steps closer to the possibility of performing truly minimally invasive cardiac surgery with significant benefits for the patient due to less trauma and a faster recovery time compared to a traditional open heart bypass procedure," stated Stefano Demertzis, M.D., Ph.D., senior cardiac surgeon at Cardiocentro Ticino in Lugano, Switzerland.

  Of course others will benefit from variations, but this does seem to be something that surgeons will certainly be asking about.
 
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Posted: #97
Yeah I agree with you, but it could take some time before it becomes a larger return..but given the interesting nature of the product it might be worth holding for a year knowing it will pan out longer term.

RMBS hit 17 today..another swing and a miss on my part.  
 
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Posted: #98
 The small float number that you mentioned on CRDC is certainly a supporting factor.

 On other issues, crude going up, and I continue to read weird info regarding gasoline inventories.Supply not there.

 For some reason, I have just a gut feeling that Bernanke is going to surprise the market with only a 25 basis point cut.I do not think this will go voer well at all, as people are already assuming double that. Purely a hunch, I just get the sense Ben is going to make sure people realize Greenspan is in fact retired. anyone else get this feeling?

 
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Posted: #99
A 25 basis cut is a bad thing for the market, a 50 basis cut is bad too..i dont think any cut is good for the market.

A 25 cut means the FED doesnt really view the situation as that bad, or that they wont be cutting much going forward, market doesnt like that.

A 50 cut means things are terrible and the FED is worried, not good for the market.

The problem is I dont think the FED cutting is going to solve anything..the government and the FED allowed things to get out of control with the housing market and mortgage disasters, now we have to live with it..and cutting the FED funds really does not address these issues.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Oh I agree philosophically, and materially, but just from a short term trading point of view is what I am talking about.I think really that Bernanke thinks like we do in macroeconomic terms and is reluctant to give in to the street's demands for a rate cut. From what I have read he opposed Greenspan's excesses regarding rate cuts.But I think he has to bend here; I just think he bends as little as possible to get a point across.
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