WSC, I think you are right.I think the manipulation of the markets by central banks has managed to significantly delay the consequences of previous and ongoing policies.(His writings make note of that fact.) Funny money has fueled this speculative frenzy... and as you say, one can be correct in the essential estimation of conditions, and still be outlasted by the market!! Good ole cash always works as Ccourt notes, but I think I may want my cash to be denominated in yen, now, not USD...FXY has been on my radar,dipped into it a little... This is usually a slow trading week, I wonder if it remains that way this year.
WSC, I think you are right.I think the manipulation of the markets by central banks has managed to significantly delay the consequences of previous and ongoing policies.(His writings make note of that fact.) Funny money has fueled this speculative frenzy... and as you say, one can be correct in the essential estimation of conditions, and still be outlasted by the market!! Good ole cash always works as Ccourt notes, but I think I may want my cash to be denominated in yen, now, not USD...FXY has been on my radar,dipped into it a little... This is usually a slow trading week, I wonder if it remains that way this year.
i think bernanke speaks today...no cameras and he'll say nothing
CFC is down 6%...piece of shit. bank of america will learn soon enough they bought a lemon. 2b to them is like 2 dollars to me...they probably made a ton more in their other equity positions by forcing a mkt bottom as they tried to do
i think bernanke speaks today...no cameras and he'll say nothing
CFC is down 6%...piece of shit. bank of america will learn soon enough they bought a lemon. 2b to them is like 2 dollars to me...they probably made a ton more in their other equity positions by forcing a mkt bottom as they tried to do
Liked GTLS a few months ago when a work buddy told me about it. Looked at it some, liked the chart, really liked the fact that it had profitable earnings in alternative energy (at least indirectly), liked the fact that it was under the radar, liked the fact that it was thinly traded.
Figured it'd be a good one to just buy and sock away for a few years.....and then when it became a public darling to sell it.
Not going to get rich off it, but if you like to sleep at night and see your money beat the SP, then it's a winner.
Liked GTLS a few months ago when a work buddy told me about it. Looked at it some, liked the chart, really liked the fact that it had profitable earnings in alternative energy (at least indirectly), liked the fact that it was under the radar, liked the fact that it was thinly traded.
Figured it'd be a good one to just buy and sock away for a few years.....and then when it became a public darling to sell it.
Not going to get rich off it, but if you like to sleep at night and see your money beat the SP, then it's a winner.
Can't prove it with numbers, but I do think the market is about to get a nice "trading bounce" in alternative energy within the next week......just a very strong gut feel.
FSLR and SPWR will be strong vehicles.
Can't prove it with numbers, but I do think the market is about to get a nice "trading bounce" in alternative energy within the next week......just a very strong gut feel.
You could be right about momentum stocks and the beginning of the month. If the market moves at all, that group is still in favor..
One comment..what bailout has CFC received? BAC made an investment in preferred stock and CFC used some bank lines to continue lending. The FED easing really didnt effect them much as the market for CMOs and secondary trading of mortgages hasnt improved that much. I dont see any bail out yet, in fact if anything BAC took a higher than average risk in investing in preferred shares, and they didnt get overly generous options to convert to common or anything...
claycourt,
You could be right about momentum stocks and the beginning of the month. If the market moves at all, that group is still in favor..
One comment..what bailout has CFC received? BAC made an investment in preferred stock and CFC used some bank lines to continue lending. The FED easing really didnt effect them much as the market for CMOs and secondary trading of mortgages hasnt improved that much. I dont see any bail out yet, in fact if anything BAC took a higher than average risk in investing in preferred shares, and they didnt get overly generous options to convert to common or anything...
2B may not seem like much, and it isn't to BAC, but BAC still doesn't throw around 2 billion "looking for action" on the nightly game, which is CFC's prospects.
I have a strong feeling that there is going to be a very coordinated and strong effort by many to keep CFC alive, so I do think there will be more bail-outs on the way for them.
These efforts will be strategically planned so big houses can profit off the short-term trading bounces and cover any long-term losses if CFC does indeed just become the next SUNW.
And becoming the next SUNW is too good for CFC, cause let's face it, they should be exterminated.
What CFC did was egregious.
I'd like to see them at zero and gone for good, but that won't be allowed to happen due to future "white knights."
Good points, WSC. Well done.
2B may not seem like much, and it isn't to BAC, but BAC still doesn't throw around 2 billion "looking for action" on the nightly game, which is CFC's prospects.
I have a strong feeling that there is going to be a very coordinated and strong effort by many to keep CFC alive, so I do think there will be more bail-outs on the way for them.
These efforts will be strategically planned so big houses can profit off the short-term trading bounces and cover any long-term losses if CFC does indeed just become the next SUNW.
And becoming the next SUNW is too good for CFC, cause let's face it, they should be exterminated.
What CFC did was egregious.
I'd like to see them at zero and gone for good, but that won't be allowed to happen due to future "white knights."
All that jibber-jabber above, I think CFC will end up being another good "trade" if we get a scenario in the next couple of weeks of fearful negativity---which is going to happen once the confessions start.
All that jibber-jabber above, I think CFC will end up being another good "trade" if we get a scenario in the next couple of weeks of fearful negativity---which is going to happen once the confessions start.
I think CFC 's stock will continue a steady, or not so steady,downward path.They won't let it go under, but it is not going to prosper either.The effort it made to get to @24 is showing signs of fading anyway.The analogy to SUNW is apt, methinks.And it is currently on a high plateau compared to, say, $5...The housing news will continue to be negative...
Thanks for the info on GTLS Ccourt.
I think CFC 's stock will continue a steady, or not so steady,downward path.They won't let it go under, but it is not going to prosper either.The effort it made to get to @24 is showing signs of fading anyway.The analogy to SUNW is apt, methinks.And it is currently on a high plateau compared to, say, $5...The housing news will continue to be negative...
Speaking of CFC, man, do you think there will be some more bail-out packages for that shit company, even this week?
Seems like there is going to be a very, very stern and concerted effort to keep those piece of shit executives afloat.
Sickening.
another day like today and BofA's 2b investment will be underwater
what good is a 7.5% div yield if the company has no cash and if no one will buy their shit loans?
the "too big to fail" thoughts are ruining us as investors and as market watchers
was LTCM too big to fail? how about worldcom or enron?...why not CFC? why not BSC? why not HOV/BZH/CTX/TOL?
how else can 5 years of cheap money, bad loans, and tremendous excess be dealt with? the mkt will correct itself and the little guys wont be the only casualties
we dont know what these guys have in store for us come earnings season...50% cash until then or if CSCO gets a bit cheaper i throw everything there
you guys should check out a book by michael panzner called financial armegeddon (check on amazon)...im reading it now, basically the pending doom of the mkts. real scary shit about the unraveling of the financial system given the past 10 years of excess
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
KOAJ-
Speaking of CFC, man, do you think there will be some more bail-out packages for that shit company, even this week?
Seems like there is going to be a very, very stern and concerted effort to keep those piece of shit executives afloat.
Sickening.
another day like today and BofA's 2b investment will be underwater
what good is a 7.5% div yield if the company has no cash and if no one will buy their shit loans?
the "too big to fail" thoughts are ruining us as investors and as market watchers
was LTCM too big to fail? how about worldcom or enron?...why not CFC? why not BSC? why not HOV/BZH/CTX/TOL?
how else can 5 years of cheap money, bad loans, and tremendous excess be dealt with? the mkt will correct itself and the little guys wont be the only casualties
we dont know what these guys have in store for us come earnings season...50% cash until then or if CSCO gets a bit cheaper i throw everything there
you guys should check out a book by michael panzner called financial armegeddon (check on amazon)...im reading it now, basically the pending doom of the mkts. real scary shit about the unraveling of the financial system given the past 10 years of excess
Just out of curiousity I was looking at the puts on the stock and the 22.50s for Jan 08 at 5 bucks really isnt that bad.. 2.50 in the money, so it costs you 2.50 on the puts.
Problem is with any of these is time..who knows if they go under in that time. A safer bet is the Jan 09 puts which cost another 2 bucks.
If you think they are going to 5 bucks then the Jan 09 10 puts are going for a buck and change..a ton of time and a possible 4-5 bagger if it does.
speaking of CFC...
Just out of curiousity I was looking at the puts on the stock and the 22.50s for Jan 08 at 5 bucks really isnt that bad.. 2.50 in the money, so it costs you 2.50 on the puts.
Problem is with any of these is time..who knows if they go under in that time. A safer bet is the Jan 09 puts which cost another 2 bucks.
If you think they are going to 5 bucks then the Jan 09 10 puts are going for a buck and change..a ton of time and a possible 4-5 bagger if it does.
I threw the $5 out there just as that was what I recalled Sun Microsystems trades at, or somewhere in that vicinity.Recall the palmy days of it trading in the $60-70 range? A similar fall from grace perhaps awaits th Given where CFC trades now, $5 is a long slide, but given what has happened in the past, it is worth pondering. The only caveat remains manipulation by a concerted group of interested parties.Sun was not deemed so important that it could not be allowed to fail. If CFC is so considered, and it may be, there is some non fundamental reasons we cannot account for. But at the end of the day, it seems more than likely to continue to pay a severe price for its excesses, as it should.
I threw the $5 out there just as that was what I recalled Sun Microsystems trades at, or somewhere in that vicinity.Recall the palmy days of it trading in the $60-70 range? A similar fall from grace perhaps awaits th Given where CFC trades now, $5 is a long slide, but given what has happened in the past, it is worth pondering. The only caveat remains manipulation by a concerted group of interested parties.Sun was not deemed so important that it could not be allowed to fail. If CFC is so considered, and it may be, there is some non fundamental reasons we cannot account for. But at the end of the day, it seems more than likely to continue to pay a severe price for its excesses, as it should.
PS I will check that book out.Another book that is worth scanning is Twilight in the Desert, by Simmons.And lest anyone think only kooks get off thinking of the possibilities out there, Google Richard Rainwater's profile in Fortune a couple of years ago.Rainwater made the Bass family (and himself) piles of cash by knowing which way the wind blows, He acts, whether he likes what it tells him or not...
PS I will check that book out.Another book that is worth scanning is Twilight in the Desert, by Simmons.And lest anyone think only kooks get off thinking of the possibilities out there, Google Richard Rainwater's profile in Fortune a couple of years ago.Rainwater made the Bass family (and himself) piles of cash by knowing which way the wind blows, He acts, whether he likes what it tells him or not...
When I was a broker we had a client who thought they deserved a fill on SUNW when it was I think 130..that was the top top top high..
factoring in the last 2 for 1, that would be 70 or so..I remember that day, I think they ran up on the backs of buying a big competitor and never recovered the highs of that day.
SUNW will always be known as SUN-PIG to me..
Anything over 5 is a total joke price wise, they need to do a 10 for 1 reverse split and undo a few splits and get the penny flippers off their back.
Vermeer,
When I was a broker we had a client who thought they deserved a fill on SUNW when it was I think 130..that was the top top top high..
factoring in the last 2 for 1, that would be 70 or so..I remember that day, I think they ran up on the backs of buying a big competitor and never recovered the highs of that day.
SUNW will always be known as SUN-PIG to me..
Anything over 5 is a total joke price wise, they need to do a 10 for 1 reverse split and undo a few splits and get the penny flippers off their back.
one of my friends (who is a soothsayer in the mkt) is short COF...shorted at 67, 68 or so
his logic is that if AMEX is having credit card issues, COF should get hammered...not to mention every other angle of their business which is consumer affected (cars, homes, credit cards, etc)
we'll see....but if ive listened to this guy over the past 6-8 months i would have done very well
one of my friends (who is a soothsayer in the mkt) is short COF...shorted at 67, 68 or so
his logic is that if AMEX is having credit card issues, COF should get hammered...not to mention every other angle of their business which is consumer affected (cars, homes, credit cards, etc)
we'll see....but if ive listened to this guy over the past 6-8 months i would have done very well
Nice start on the COF short for your friend..down almost 2 today.
Market looking very soft again, last two days volume seems a little higher and selling stronger.
Koaj, part of me misses rebate trading, I left as you were coming in. Our targets were WCOM, ORCL, even CSCO if you were dangerous. Back then there were cheap telecoms who everyone pounced on, I think CNXT..but that was before full decimalization was in effect, so we would get in trouble for "pennying" stocks if everyone wasnt doing it. (splitting the penny)
Part of me really misses it, I dont miss having 50k positions though and having the market turn on a dime against you..holy crap.
Nice start on the COF short for your friend..down almost 2 today.
Market looking very soft again, last two days volume seems a little higher and selling stronger.
Koaj, part of me misses rebate trading, I left as you were coming in. Our targets were WCOM, ORCL, even CSCO if you were dangerous. Back then there were cheap telecoms who everyone pounced on, I think CNXT..but that was before full decimalization was in effect, so we would get in trouble for "pennying" stocks if everyone wasnt doing it. (splitting the penny)
Part of me really misses it, I dont miss having 50k positions though and having the market turn on a dime against you..holy crap.
September will have a few names drop their drawers, maybe a builder, a lender or two, some confessions from credit card companies etc.
Somtimes when it is ugly, companies who have been hiding garbage in the closet will dump it all out knowing the stock will be going down no matter what (market related).
The smart move might be to get short into labor day and the day after as the view might be the big boys come back and take the market higher..a normal sentiment..then take it down.
Look at MA, down 7 bucks..it could drop 30 more and really not be that bad.
On the other hand I have a few stocks in mind LONG for a market bump..stocks like RIMM, AAPL, BIDU etc, higher beta stocks who love to fly when the chase is on.
I agree..
September will have a few names drop their drawers, maybe a builder, a lender or two, some confessions from credit card companies etc.
Somtimes when it is ugly, companies who have been hiding garbage in the closet will dump it all out knowing the stock will be going down no matter what (market related).
The smart move might be to get short into labor day and the day after as the view might be the big boys come back and take the market higher..a normal sentiment..then take it down.
Look at MA, down 7 bucks..it could drop 30 more and really not be that bad.
On the other hand I have a few stocks in mind LONG for a market bump..stocks like RIMM, AAPL, BIDU etc, higher beta stocks who love to fly when the chase is on.
A side note..I am on email listings for local companies who buy properties at the auction and flip them to investors, also on lists for places like We Buy Ugly Houses..
Well last night I got a listing via email which shocked me..
"It's a Monster!" "Big Spread Big Rehab"
Mother/daughter rehab with 3500 sqft and a pool (combined square footage)
$219,542
Here is the kicker-
Subject sold
for 520K in 9/06
So someone bot this house last year for 520k, couldnt keep up with the payments, let the property go to the crapper and had to foreclose. Now it sold at auction for less than half of what it did a year ago.
The scary thing is this isnt the first listing like this I have seen..and this PHX market is INVESTOR HUNGRY..which means things are getting ugly if at auction a property goes for 50 cents on the dollar in a decent part of town (Lower Scottsdale)
CFC article
Not a great article for the company.
A side note..I am on email listings for local companies who buy properties at the auction and flip them to investors, also on lists for places like We Buy Ugly Houses..
Well last night I got a listing via email which shocked me..
"It's a Monster!" "Big Spread Big Rehab"
Mother/daughter rehab with 3500 sqft and a pool (combined square footage)
$219,542
Here is the kicker-
Subject sold
for 520K in 9/06
So someone bot this house last year for 520k, couldnt keep up with the payments, let the property go to the crapper and had to foreclose. Now it sold at auction for less than half of what it did a year ago.
The scary thing is this isnt the first listing like this I have seen..and this PHX market is INVESTOR HUNGRY..which means things are getting ugly if at auction a property goes for 50 cents on the dollar in a decent part of town (Lower Scottsdale)
Public sentiment certainly is expecting the big boys to come in after Labor Day and move the market where they want it, but is it possible that many of these big money players are playing now?
Well, I do agree that the big money players want to really shake out the weak hands before they force a rally and take the market higher.
Big money isn't goigng to come in to this market too hard until the shake-out is complete.
WSC-
Public sentiment certainly is expecting the big boys to come in after Labor Day and move the market where they want it, but is it possible that many of these big money players are playing now?
Well, I do agree that the big money players want to really shake out the weak hands before they force a rally and take the market higher.
Big money isn't goigng to come in to this market too hard until the shake-out is complete.
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