My theory is the opposite. I think the market does a phony move higher into the first of the month after labor day.
There will be a large attempt to take the market down hard before they move it higher..
So testing lows and even going lower is in the cards if you ask me..but not until after the big boys return..which you are right, most are probably in but the volume isnt 100% by any means, so even though they shouldnt be off vacationing, I think most money is on the sidelines and the action will pick up after Labor Day..
Claycourt,
My theory is the opposite. I think the market does a phony move higher into the first of the month after labor day.
There will be a large attempt to take the market down hard before they move it higher..
So testing lows and even going lower is in the cards if you ask me..but not until after the big boys return..which you are right, most are probably in but the volume isnt 100% by any means, so even though they shouldnt be off vacationing, I think most money is on the sidelines and the action will pick up after Labor Day..
wall - i traded SUNW mostly...some JDSU, SONS, WCOM, SIRI
i would have 10k positions in 3 of them, just trying to get flats...in and out all day. SIRI you could do 50k positions when it was 80 cents
in august of 02, Ericcson had warrants...ERICY and ERICR and they moved in tandem...or they had to be 23 cents apart as per the terms of the warrant. you could buy one and short the other and make a penny both ways on 20k shares...fantastic
if you remember the day that WCOM reopened after ch 11 announcement, there was a guy in my shop who traded 100m shares of WCOM that day...million share positions. it was insane
i think lows will be retested at some point
wall - i traded SUNW mostly...some JDSU, SONS, WCOM, SIRI
i would have 10k positions in 3 of them, just trying to get flats...in and out all day. SIRI you could do 50k positions when it was 80 cents
in august of 02, Ericcson had warrants...ERICY and ERICR and they moved in tandem...or they had to be 23 cents apart as per the terms of the warrant. you could buy one and short the other and make a penny both ways on 20k shares...fantastic
if you remember the day that WCOM reopened after ch 11 announcement, there was a guy in my shop who traded 100m shares of WCOM that day...million share positions. it was insane
Geez...I dont remember the ERICY warrants..that is a nice catch.
Yeah I remember the WCOM Ch11 day..I got short it about 100k when it dropped below a buck and the head of the division I was at got mad and made me close it out, too much exposure..what a total pisser that was..I knew it was the right call but the guy was flipping out and made me cover it..I think it ended up being a push.
Back then they were all about volume and not being able to split the penny really hurt the chances to flip..since other firms were at the same time..so after the WCOM joke and they kept forcing volume, I decided it was time to split...
Kabooooommmmm market cracking here....
Geez...I dont remember the ERICY warrants..that is a nice catch.
Yeah I remember the WCOM Ch11 day..I got short it about 100k when it dropped below a buck and the head of the division I was at got mad and made me close it out, too much exposure..what a total pisser that was..I knew it was the right call but the guy was flipping out and made me cover it..I think it ended up being a push.
Back then they were all about volume and not being able to split the penny really hurt the chances to flip..since other firms were at the same time..so after the WCOM joke and they kept forcing volume, I decided it was time to split...
Tell you what, the pessimism and negativity and fear will be very high right now.
If anyone has the balls to get long, you'll get a nice "trading bounce" until after LD when the strong boys will take it lower and scare the living piss out of the weak, shaking them out to take everything higher after they've been run off.
Yep, besides the masquerade called "love," the stock market is manipulation at its finest.
Yep, market getting blown up today.
Tell you what, the pessimism and negativity and fear will be very high right now.
If anyone has the balls to get long, you'll get a nice "trading bounce" until after LD when the strong boys will take it lower and scare the living piss out of the weak, shaking them out to take everything higher after they've been run off.
Yep, besides the masquerade called "love," the stock market is manipulation at its finest.
Agreed, WSC. The selling in CFC is pretty much in. Didn't BAC lock in a price of 18? No way it goes lower than that, cause the big house cronies won't allow it. They'll buy the fuck out of it at that price and run off the short positions.
If you could get everyone in cahoots, you could make so much fucking money right now off going long CFC cause of the HUGE short positions that are still being opened. New shorts in CFC are nothing but lambs about to get slaughtered. The slaughter could happen in CFC at any second.
The time to get short CFC for a trade was when BAC came with their bail-out package, but yours truly didn't have the balls to short it unless it was 27ish, and 23ish was where it opened that next day....so I was wrong again...............DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And now it's south of 20 and should be covered by those with the balls who shorted it after BAC's bailout.
Here is a question for all:
Yes or No........does the FED do an emergency bail-out FF cut before Sep 18 FOMC meeting?
I say yes, and by 50 BPs. Then another 50 BP bail-out cut on Sep 18.
And when all that shit sickeningly happens, you want to get long FSLR!!!!!!
Agreed, WSC. The selling in CFC is pretty much in. Didn't BAC lock in a price of 18? No way it goes lower than that, cause the big house cronies won't allow it. They'll buy the fuck out of it at that price and run off the short positions.
If you could get everyone in cahoots, you could make so much fucking money right now off going long CFC cause of the HUGE short positions that are still being opened. New shorts in CFC are nothing but lambs about to get slaughtered. The slaughter could happen in CFC at any second.
The time to get short CFC for a trade was when BAC came with their bail-out package, but yours truly didn't have the balls to short it unless it was 27ish, and 23ish was where it opened that next day....so I was wrong again...............DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And now it's south of 20 and should be covered by those with the balls who shorted it after BAC's bailout.
Here is a question for all:
Yes or No........does the FED do an emergency bail-out FF cut before Sep 18 FOMC meeting?
I say yes, and by 50 BPs. Then another 50 BP bail-out cut on Sep 18.
And when all that shit sickeningly happens, you want to get long FSLR!!!!!!
Am still going to get long on C Oct 50 puts, but not at these prices. The common will have to come back to 48 for me to start thinking about it, cause I think C falls to 42 during confession season.
Am still going to get long on C Oct 50 puts, but not at these prices. The common will have to come back to 48 for me to start thinking about it, cause I think C falls to 42 during confession season.
It is so obvious the FED has no clue..they werent even planning a cut until they got a fire under their a$$ by the market and the media..a week before they cut FIFTY BASIS points, they had no plans..
What that tells me is the FED has no clue and will continue to be stupid for the coming future..
I found this article about the FED interesting-
LINK
It is so obvious the FED has no clue..they werent even planning a cut until they got a fire under their a$$ by the market and the media..a week before they cut FIFTY BASIS points, they had no plans..
What that tells me is the FED has no clue and will continue to be stupid for the coming future..
I agree with you that the FED is stupid. Yep, they fit the stereotypes to a goddamn T......a bunch of old senile farts who don't want a bunch of yahoo stock market gamblers telling them what to do. Always been that way.....always will.
Nice article, but it doesn't apply to anything anymore. You know as well as I that 10 days in today's financial markets is a freakin eon, so just because they were their usual stubborn selves back on Aug 7 and changed course on Aug 17 shouldn't be such a shock.
Look it, when they met on Aug 7, those ante-deluvian old farts went in with attitudes and weren't about to be bossed around by a bunch of irresponsible stock gambling characters.....so they had to make a stand and did so by leaving things unchanged. This happens in every meeting, basically.
The FED hates the stock market.....always have, always will. They hate gamblers. They want to be in control----just like a typical old fart wants to keep driving the car when his reflexes go and he keeps putting dents on it.
Anyway, there'll be a bail-out rate cut coming real, real soon, and no one will give a damn about the Aug 7 minutes.
The market sold today not cause of these damn minutes, but because players don't want to be long with confessions coming up.
Once again, as always, the only things that control the stock market on a day to day basis (not years to years) are fear and greed.
WSC-
I agree with you that the FED is stupid. Yep, they fit the stereotypes to a goddamn T......a bunch of old senile farts who don't want a bunch of yahoo stock market gamblers telling them what to do. Always been that way.....always will.
Nice article, but it doesn't apply to anything anymore. You know as well as I that 10 days in today's financial markets is a freakin eon, so just because they were their usual stubborn selves back on Aug 7 and changed course on Aug 17 shouldn't be such a shock.
Look it, when they met on Aug 7, those ante-deluvian old farts went in with attitudes and weren't about to be bossed around by a bunch of irresponsible stock gambling characters.....so they had to make a stand and did so by leaving things unchanged. This happens in every meeting, basically.
The FED hates the stock market.....always have, always will. They hate gamblers. They want to be in control----just like a typical old fart wants to keep driving the car when his reflexes go and he keeps putting dents on it.
Anyway, there'll be a bail-out rate cut coming real, real soon, and no one will give a damn about the Aug 7 minutes.
The market sold today not cause of these damn minutes, but because players don't want to be long with confessions coming up.
Once again, as always, the only things that control the stock market on a day to day basis (not years to years) are fear and greed.
And since fear and greed trump anything resembling reason, it is probably time for traders to get long.
Why? 'Cause you make money by going against the grain more times than not. And right now, there is much more fear than greed controlling emotional sentiment.
Cheers
And since fear and greed trump anything resembling reason, it is probably time for traders to get long.
Why? 'Cause you make money by going against the grain more times than not. And right now, there is much more fear than greed controlling emotional sentiment.
The reason the market dumped is because of the minutes. Everyone is pricing in a 50 basis point cut, thus the 100 pt drop when the minutes were released.
But like you said, those minutes are ancient history.. I just dont see them being proactive enough so quickly to cut again. I dont see it.
It would take some serious damage to credit markets for them to cough up another 50 basis point cut.
One other comment. I have a friend who works for a subsidiary of a large public company who bought a local builder..so he was telling me that he has a friend who is the branch manager for CFC locally here. He told me that less than a year ago CFC was offering loans to just about anyone and even to people who were foreclosing on a loan, they had a loan on another property ready and waiting for them. Greed killed lenders and builders.
Expect more news to be similar to the above..that CFC and other lenders finally admit they are holding more and more paper as the real estate market stagnates.
I know down here there was a HUGE influx of investors and speculators, two years ago it was thought that 40% of contracts were from investors and out of state buyers who were speculating on appreciation and tried to flip the contract near or after closing..yet builders down here keep pumping out supply.
I dont see a big reason to go long any large builder or lender until the fall..
claycourt,
The reason the market dumped is because of the minutes. Everyone is pricing in a 50 basis point cut, thus the 100 pt drop when the minutes were released.
But like you said, those minutes are ancient history.. I just dont see them being proactive enough so quickly to cut again. I dont see it.
It would take some serious damage to credit markets for them to cough up another 50 basis point cut.
One other comment. I have a friend who works for a subsidiary of a large public company who bought a local builder..so he was telling me that he has a friend who is the branch manager for CFC locally here. He told me that less than a year ago CFC was offering loans to just about anyone and even to people who were foreclosing on a loan, they had a loan on another property ready and waiting for them. Greed killed lenders and builders.
Expect more news to be similar to the above..that CFC and other lenders finally admit they are holding more and more paper as the real estate market stagnates.
I know down here there was a HUGE influx of investors and speculators, two years ago it was thought that 40% of contracts were from investors and out of state buyers who were speculating on appreciation and tried to flip the contract near or after closing..yet builders down here keep pumping out supply.
I dont see a big reason to go long any large builder or lender until the fall..
The old fart minutes from Aug 7 didn't help the bulls, but the SP was down way before the minutes came out.
Had the broad index closed up on the day, it would have been short covering, as fear would've gripped the shorts that a bailout rate cut could be coming.
Bernanke isn't stupid, though, and he could be bought easily by big money who tell him to act like a fool.....let the markets panic and get frightened to be long, then hit them with an emergency rate cut and watch the shorts panic.......all while the big money got long before the emergency bailout rate cut. Happened 2 weeks ago and will happen again. Greed knows no limits, and Bernanke is a slime-ball.
Your related info on CFC is typical, and that is exactly why they ought to be left to die a humiliating death.
I've heard several stories about their recent tactics that would make your blood boil, too. But let's face it, no one gives a flying f about morals and doing the right thing. The only thing that matters today is money. No one gives a damn how you lie, cheat, or steal to get it. And nowhere is this more pronounced than in the financial casino.
"Doing what's right" went passe the day man appeared on the earth, so my rants against CFC are too tiresome to be continued.
All we want is money.
So how do we get it?
I say get long for a trade on FSLR if you like the short-term thing. If you like the long term thing, wait for peeps to start jumping out of windows.
Cheers
WSC-
The old fart minutes from Aug 7 didn't help the bulls, but the SP was down way before the minutes came out.
Had the broad index closed up on the day, it would have been short covering, as fear would've gripped the shorts that a bailout rate cut could be coming.
Bernanke isn't stupid, though, and he could be bought easily by big money who tell him to act like a fool.....let the markets panic and get frightened to be long, then hit them with an emergency rate cut and watch the shorts panic.......all while the big money got long before the emergency bailout rate cut. Happened 2 weeks ago and will happen again. Greed knows no limits, and Bernanke is a slime-ball.
Your related info on CFC is typical, and that is exactly why they ought to be left to die a humiliating death.
I've heard several stories about their recent tactics that would make your blood boil, too. But let's face it, no one gives a flying f about morals and doing the right thing. The only thing that matters today is money. No one gives a damn how you lie, cheat, or steal to get it. And nowhere is this more pronounced than in the financial casino.
"Doing what's right" went passe the day man appeared on the earth, so my rants against CFC are too tiresome to be continued.
All we want is money.
So how do we get it?
I say get long for a trade on FSLR if you like the short-term thing. If you like the long term thing, wait for peeps to start jumping out of windows.
I keep this bon mot of J.M. Keynes around and tend to look at it every day before considering the market:
"Themarket can stayirrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
I dthink the Fed is not going to be Cramered into a rate cut. That rate cut has been assumed,and already fully priced in, since the discount rate cut. I do not think Bernanke is likely to be led by the assumptions of traders.
I keep this bon mot of J.M. Keynes around and tend to look at it every day before considering the market:
"Themarket can stayirrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
I dthink the Fed is not going to be Cramered into a rate cut. That rate cut has been assumed,and already fully priced in, since the discount rate cut. I do not think Bernanke is likely to be led by the assumptions of traders.
The FED was Cramered or Kudlowed into doing it last time..I dont believe that things deteriorated in a week to the degree which the FED needed a half point cut..that doesnt make sense to me.
I think Ben might have spoken with Allan or maybe the treasury secretary or the prez and that is what turned the tide.
The problem is they cannot do what is necessary because they have flooded the market with currency which has altered economic cycles, thus their old standard backwards looking data is not applicable..the FED is not and has not been capable of acting on the fly because they rely on information which does not predict correctly and does not assimilate big event changes fast enough.
Note the LTCM problem, the FED was behind there, the MELT-UP on the markets, they were behind there, the MELT-DOWN of the markets..definately behind there..and now they allowed lenders and banks to over margin and kept rates too low (for the reason if they DID raise then they would have to stop the currency flow and it would kill the economy) that it gave a perfect breeding ground for LENDER and BUILDER greed..
Sorry for the long winded stuff there...
Vermeer,,
The FED was Cramered or Kudlowed into doing it last time..I dont believe that things deteriorated in a week to the degree which the FED needed a half point cut..that doesnt make sense to me.
I think Ben might have spoken with Allan or maybe the treasury secretary or the prez and that is what turned the tide.
The problem is they cannot do what is necessary because they have flooded the market with currency which has altered economic cycles, thus their old standard backwards looking data is not applicable..the FED is not and has not been capable of acting on the fly because they rely on information which does not predict correctly and does not assimilate big event changes fast enough.
Note the LTCM problem, the FED was behind there, the MELT-UP on the markets, they were behind there, the MELT-DOWN of the markets..definately behind there..and now they allowed lenders and banks to over margin and kept rates too low (for the reason if they DID raise then they would have to stop the currency flow and it would kill the economy) that it gave a perfect breeding ground for LENDER and BUILDER greed..
Good stuff and I think on the money! However, I hope Bernanke really does not take much advice from Greenspan, as I think Greenie has been wrong more often than right, as your list of behind the curve judgments illustrate. However, I would disagree a bit with the idea that things could not deteriorate so quickly in just one week. That is the nature of panic. And panic in an internet age is panic on steroids. Anyway, you and I are on the same page as far as the reasoning behind the problems created:oversupply leading to idiotic lending practices, and compounded by the irrational idea that by dividing up junk into smaller pieces (derivatives) would somehow make it NOT junk. That alchemy, alas, was shown to be just that, and when everyone finally awoke to that realization, they stopped in their tracks, and wanted to see exactly what was it they had signed on to buying or financing.
Good stuff and I think on the money! However, I hope Bernanke really does not take much advice from Greenspan, as I think Greenie has been wrong more often than right, as your list of behind the curve judgments illustrate. However, I would disagree a bit with the idea that things could not deteriorate so quickly in just one week. That is the nature of panic. And panic in an internet age is panic on steroids. Anyway, you and I are on the same page as far as the reasoning behind the problems created:oversupply leading to idiotic lending practices, and compounded by the irrational idea that by dividing up junk into smaller pieces (derivatives) would somehow make it NOT junk. That alchemy, alas, was shown to be just that, and when everyone finally awoke to that realization, they stopped in their tracks, and wanted to see exactly what was it they had signed on to buying or financing.
Anyone playing PMI to the downside at all? Mybe some comments have been made on it in this thread but I did not take the time to look very closely at each post.
Anyone playing PMI to the downside at all? Mybe some comments have been made on it in this thread but I did not take the time to look very closely at each post.
*************************************************
Carlyle fund brands disruption worse than LTCM collapse
US buyout firm The Carlyle Group has stepped in to help one
of its fixed income funds for the second time in a week and a conduit
for German lender IKB
warned it can not expect further liquidity support, as investment
vehicles continue their struggle to weather the sub-prime fallout.
Carlyle Capital Corp
secured a $100m (€73.2m) loan facility from Carlyle last week to help
the fund meet its margin calls in the wake of the US mortgage-backed
debt crisis. Yesterday, it received a second handout from the buyout
group in an effort to boost its liquidity.
It said its business model was designed to withstand an event on a par
with the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in October
1998, but warned in a letter to shareholders that the recent liquidity
disruption is “significantly worse”.
The
fund has used up the initial loan and has received a further $100m
commitment from Carlyle, which has also acquired the fund’s investments
in mezzanine debt and four collateralised loan obligations as well as
releasing the fund from an obligation to inject $75m into a separate
Carlyle distressed debt fund.
The
fund apologised for a “lapse in communication” that it admitted was
“unsatisfactory and frustrating” for investors. It added in a statement
that it has also offloaded “a substantial portion” of its bank loans at
book value or above.
While Carlyle stepped in with a further
loan as part of a raft of measures aimed at boosting liquidity at the
fixed income fund, Rhinebridge, a conduit of Germany’s IKB,
warned it cannot expect further “liquidity support from the lender and
its owners at this stage”.
Rhinebridge
said it has sold $176m of assets to manage its liquidity this week and
said it has not drawn on liquidity facilities. However, the conduit
said in a statement: “While there has been difficulty in raising
commercial paper, we have had support up until now from IKB. Further
liquidity support cannot be expected at this stage.”
Rhinebridge said the lack of funding could lead to it breaching
financial tests and invoking an enforcement event.
*************************************************
Carlyle fund brands disruption worse than LTCM collapse
US buyout firm The Carlyle Group has stepped in to help one
of its fixed income funds for the second time in a week and a conduit
for German lender IKB
warned it can not expect further liquidity support, as investment
vehicles continue their struggle to weather the sub-prime fallout.
Carlyle Capital Corp
secured a $100m (€73.2m) loan facility from Carlyle last week to help
the fund meet its margin calls in the wake of the US mortgage-backed
debt crisis. Yesterday, it received a second handout from the buyout
group in an effort to boost its liquidity.
It said its business model was designed to withstand an event on a par
with the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in October
1998, but warned in a letter to shareholders that the recent liquidity
disruption is “significantly worse”.
The
fund has used up the initial loan and has received a further $100m
commitment from Carlyle, which has also acquired the fund’s investments
in mezzanine debt and four collateralised loan obligations as well as
releasing the fund from an obligation to inject $75m into a separate
Carlyle distressed debt fund.
The
fund apologised for a “lapse in communication” that it admitted was
“unsatisfactory and frustrating” for investors. It added in a statement
that it has also offloaded “a substantial portion” of its bank loans at
book value or above.
While Carlyle stepped in with a further
loan as part of a raft of measures aimed at boosting liquidity at the
fixed income fund, Rhinebridge, a conduit of Germany’s IKB,
warned it cannot expect further “liquidity support from the lender and
its owners at this stage”.
Rhinebridge
said it has sold $176m of assets to manage its liquidity this week and
said it has not drawn on liquidity facilities. However, the conduit
said in a statement: “While there has been difficulty in raising
commercial paper, we have had support up until now from IKB. Further
liquidity support cannot be expected at this stage.”
Rhinebridge said the lack of funding could lead to it breaching
financial tests and invoking an enforcement event.
Credit Suisse Analyst Takes "Dramatically Tempered" Outlook on Countrywide Financial
NEW YORK (AP) -- A Credit Suisse analyst
sharply cut his price target on Countrywide Financial Corp. on Thursday
because of the upheaval in the mortgage industry.
Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch said he expects $1.8 trillion in
mortgage loans next year, compared with $3.3 trillion in 2005. He cut
his estimate for lending this year to $2.3 trillion from $2.5 trillion.
In a research
report, analyst Moshe Orenbuch "dramatically tempered" his outlook for
the Calabasas, Calif.-based mortgage lender.
He
cut his price target to $28 from $40. He now expects a loss this year,
versus his previous estimate for a profit of $3 per share. Analysts
polled by Thomson Financial expect a profit of $1.96 per share.
CFC news:
Credit Suisse Analyst Takes "Dramatically Tempered" Outlook on Countrywide Financial
NEW YORK (AP) -- A Credit Suisse analyst
sharply cut his price target on Countrywide Financial Corp. on Thursday
because of the upheaval in the mortgage industry.
Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch said he expects $1.8 trillion in
mortgage loans next year, compared with $3.3 trillion in 2005. He cut
his estimate for lending this year to $2.3 trillion from $2.5 trillion.
In a research
report, analyst Moshe Orenbuch "dramatically tempered" his outlook for
the Calabasas, Calif.-based mortgage lender.
He
cut his price target to $28 from $40. He now expects a loss this year,
versus his previous estimate for a profit of $3 per share. Analysts
polled by Thomson Financial expect a profit of $1.96 per share.
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