October 2007 Stock Talk

d2, I will look into it.I think one has to be careful with numbers, and I am curious as to how one derives true value from a stat like that of the Dow which regularly gains and loses members...will look into it and see what documentation he brings to it later today.

EFUT

Holy crap..

Jeff,

NOEC moving again today..

SOB..

Pulled an order yesterday on some KONG 7.50 calls at .95 cents, now a double..even hit 85 cents today.

Stock looks good..I bet she goes higher.

One more thing Jeff..

RIO downgraded today. I couldnt find a history on JPMorgan and their rating on the stock, but thats why it dropped..

In just EIGHT days, CHNR has turned into a 5 bagger..

What the hell?

What is going on with this stock? I mean I went ahead and got a couple hundred shares but am ashamed to say it was just for the hell of it and I did almost no research at all on it....I should get off my ass and see for myself, huh?

 The Taleb claim remains unclear to me. The bibliography is huge, the notes assertive and at points extremely technical. Yet on this particular claim, which he does elaborate on but not at length, there is nothing specific cited. Very curious.
 The chart is of the S&P 500,not the Dow so my mistake on that.If anyone is familiar with his work let me know, I have read quite a lot about him but nothing regarding this particular claim so far...

Vermeer,

Well the stock broke out to new highs today..who the hell knows where it goes..but I wouldnt bet against it (meaning me thinking of that)     

Side note..

I was watching that crappy CNBC this morning and actually heard them say that the market hadnt been down 2 days in a row since September 10th..

BOOOO HOOO

Good grief.

Oh and another day like this and I will get some DRYS or FSLR..

What gets me is that I can't find any news making NOEC jump...not a thorough search but still, there has to be something  stuff is almost up $2 now, 31% in one day on no news???

By the way, Taleb is a pro options trader among other things, so if anyone is interested, his website is here...not an endorsement, and this guy does take on some serious economists and basically calls them fools (he hates Nobel prize winners!! LOL)..

https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

Vermeer,

I will check that site, I am always looking for more resources.

NTRI cut numbers and stock getting knocked in after hours...  

Vermeer,

That site is a mess..

Its a bunch of book reccos and the guy telling people to quit bugging him.

I am intrigued but I cannot find anything where he talks about the market or strategy etc..can you direct me to where the guy discusses the market or trading strategies?

WSC: I agree, I was trying to wade through the damn stuff in hopes of finding a real defense of just that one claim...I get his overall thesis, etc...he has been "investigated" by the WSJ and mentions this article that I have not carefully read, but which explains towards the end his essential approach to the extremes he expects (ie,  1987, the LTCM fiasco) to occur more and more regularly for many reasons.

https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/wsj-patterson.pdf

He mentions this on his site but I see no way of doing anything but buying it (not in the cards).NOT an endorsement, not a shill...this guy is a unique figure in essence because he combines real world experience with epistemology and math, not exactly a common figure in my experience.

Nonliterary Books & Works

 

Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options , New York : Wiley (c. 506 pp., released Jan 2 1997). The book is about my own bottom-up approach to quantitative finance & risk management. I am aggressively no-nonsense, suspicious of theories (particularly those concocted by economists). It is the first step in my plan to help merge option "theory" and practice (which includes some non trivial modifications), leading to a clinical approach to stochastic processes. Here is a cartoon showing Dynamic Hedging as instrumental in the starting of a colorful and intense interoffice romance.  There is no scheduled second edition yet.

Once again, history has been kind to the book and the ideas presented in it –its 10^th year has been the best.  It is mostly used by professional option traders in training programs, risk managers, and, on the occasion, mathematical finance students. Most academics (like this one, this one, & many more) who voiced criticism about my no-nonsense approach to risks of derivatives & disliked my intrusion into the reality of the process (how could a practitioner tell us how things should be done?) have had their works & ideas steadily gliding into the purest of  oblivions.

I saw that book recco too..

I was hoping that he had some market info or comments or strategies..

Instead he says "I got bored with the market and talking to people with money"

This was a bullshit downgrade.  The market is so fixed sometimes.  THis company has everything going for them and it gets a downgrade.   Funny how the market works.  Heavy action on calls in this stock.  I guess they got together and squeezed everyone who owns the calls including me.  SOld it today early in the day.   Still made a shit load.  Also sold my drys early in the day.   Made a shit load.   Doubled my ameritrade account value on both stocks.    Had to protect my gains.

Maybe it was downgraded because the shares have almost doubled in a month and the price has gotten ahead of itself.

I bot some DRYS 100 calls today, not a ton but enough to make it interesting (30 contracts)

Stock hanging in there and I expect it to bounce today or the next few days..

We missed the boat, stock is a 4 bagger this year already.

Find us a CHINA egg stock..then you have a gold mine.

what expiration date?

If you wish, I will send you a report (its free, provided by my broker) via email on this stock.It would not be an endorsement of anything, just information for you to read at your leisure, a pdf file. Not sure how the contact thing works here, but whatever, will send  it to whatever email you can get to me privately.