November Stock Talk VI

They are sacking ET too..it might go negative here after being up huge.

yup, lotta people using this faux rally to sell off stuff...then going to ride a rate cut up, before bailing out completely at year's end.Or so I think.

 I consider the Democratic motion today on war funding a basic declaration of defeat in Iraq. I think Afghanistan is lost as well.(In no way meaning to be political, US interests are on the run and will remain so.)
 
Add in major major dolalr holders bailing out, and a tightrope act for Ben between inflation and the normal method of keeping an economy out of recession, you have a recipe for sheer stagflation to me.

  CC:

 You and the first WSJ article I read Wednesday on the same page re the dollar. You are right, when every one is on the same side, they are probably coming in as the tide goes out.

  However, the underlying problem for me is this:I have zero faith that the US government, Democrat or Republican led, will reverse the extreme course they have been on my entire adult life:exponential growth of government spending. That course is what has devalued the dollar...

 To boost the dollar, they will have to raise interest rates, and I see that as very, very unlikely given present economic conditions.

Never use the word impossible regarding any currency...of course that could go both ways!

WSJ article said [retty m,uch the saem thing, with one or two pros claiming undervalued by 25%. I doubt once Ben and the election cycle gets through with it it will be 25 % higher...but that is just me.

 But I have been bearish all year on the USD and bullish on gold, and those go hand in hand.After such a death spiral in the USD and upward climb in gold, there should be some room for correction. But the fundamental problem of DC and the American booboisie remain the same to me.

CRDC..

Tried to see what is causing the leak but all I could find was a release from a doctor today..seemed positive to me, not sure what would cause a sell-off today.

Hmmm. I must have missed the sell off ..

Are you referring to the presentation by Dr. Husam H. Balkhy, which was positive on the procedure WSC??

PS Since I was stopped out quite a while ago I was expecting GOOG to escalate upwards...hasn't happened. I must be losing my touch.

Vermeer,

Yeah that was the one.

The "selloff" was on very very light volume..and early. Good rebound so far.

Market setting up like another afternoon dump if you want my opinion.  

I think so too...nothing has changed regarding the steady drumbeat of bad news. Jack Bogle on CNBC (Bubble TV) said he had it as a 75% chance of recession.I have been wondering if I am living in the same nation as the economists who see it as 33% chance...I hope Bogle is wrong but I see it already in action in this area.

  I toured four malls yesterday, and they were all ghost towns. I am sure people are waiting for Black Friday, but only people who live in their own little world do not already see the impact of the new economic scene.

Isnt Bogle from Vanguard? He is a bear nearly all the time anyway..

Nice action on CRDC...looks like earlier one seller wanted out and it nailed the stock, great action since then.

DRYS back down to where I bot it..unbelieveable. A 20 pt reversal in two days..this stock is making me sick.  

Yep he is Vanguard...said he has not changed his portfolio allotment in the past 7 years (but he is an old man). 60/ 40 in bonds I think he said. He is no dummy.

 Did I see that Guidant bought a load of  CRDC shares recently, or did I misread that blurb..can't recall where I saw it.
 I wanted to bite off a bit more of it but have always been off on my order price/timing.

Getting seasick on DRYs? Sorry, bad pun...

Vermeer,

Guidant SOLD shares..they invested a while back and needed the cash. If you look at insider transactions if it doesnt show now it will...Guidant was the reason for the secondary actually.

This market continues to suck..of course now long I am not happy..

lol     

CFC down to the 52 week lows again.

Financials looking terrible, market looking terrible.

 WSC:

  Can you tell me what you see about the market that makes you optimistic? I go into self check mode at weeks end, do an inventory, and lately, as I may have indicated in posts (LOL) am very bearish. Every time I see a flack from a financial firm assuring us the "worst is behind us" I want to go buy another slug of SKF...they are still trying to run the same con they did during the salad days of subprime, or so I feel.

 Anyway, on individual issues I am OK, but overall, skittish.

 I am very down on small caps...

 Bogle by the way invented the first public ETF I think.

Vermeer,

I have watched Vogle (Vogle or Bogle?) for years..back to when I was a broker..the guy is always 60/40 or worse.

I guess I expect (and still do) a year end move for the markets. Odds are with us that into the spring the market continues to hang in there..plus with the global expansion and cheap buck, it should keep the US market high and dry. Now after the spring I think it gets terrible and stays terrible for a long time.

My views are just observing seasonal trends and observations from watching the market for 20 yrs or so..but yeah you know me I am the biggest bear out there..

   

PS Thanks I really did misread that blurb then..thanks for the clarification!

Vermeer,

No problem...maybe they were buyers in another way but I dont think so.

That CRDC news today was really pretty strong, which made me scratch my head on the early action..it was like people didnt see the info..I read the whole thing and it was good in my view, so I am not shocked at the move since the more support they get and more research the higher the odds that the device turns into a monster.

I read the report as well and it was nothing but positive news. In fact I have not read any doctor comment or hospital report that was not very positive of its utility. The only thing will be the way the company is run, not the efficacy of its device/procedure.

 Anyways, will be curious to see how something like this can be either derailed or made into a money machine.

What a sucker rally that was..

Brought it back 50 pts on the DOW and HAMMERED it quicker than it bounced.

Vermeer, I am not down on the company at all..they are playing it conservative..not touting themselves or making BS releases to pop the stock.

I think the secondary was a tough one to swallow but the float is thin on the stock so that is the only way they could let Guidant out. Not sure what they needed the money for on the shares they sold, maybe a marketing campaign or somthing..

I like the odds on this play quite a bit...