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November Stock Talk VI

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Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #101
More selling today..terrible reversal after being up 100 and 30 on the NAZ.

I sold my SPWR options for a loss, the chart on the stock says lower and even though they are June options I am not holding.

Getting nailed on most everything I own..terrible action in the market.

CFC hit 8 and change today..wow BAC taking it up the rear on that deal, IMB down to 8 and change today..

FNM and FRE getting nailed..

The ghosts are coming home to haunt the lenders...more than I expected...
 
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Posted: #102
CC,

I never really understood what you meant about a bailout package or how that even was possible..

Obviously the number of companies and people involved make it impossible to BAIL the entire group out..and the market realized that quite quickly.

I still prefer TOL to CTX for the reasons we discussed a while ago.
 
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Posted: #103
Yeah, WSC, I was "shorting" CTX....I don't like it, either.
 
Yeah, as hindsight is 20/20, I was wrong.  If we all had the gd sportspages for tomorrow, then we'd all know whom to bet today.  In financial markets, perception is reality......always has been, always will be.  Had the fed gov't stepped in and made some sort of "bailout" to credit crunched home buyers, then you ought to know better than I what would've happened.
 
So yeah, post facto in the world of armchair QBs, we're all gd geniuses who "should've bought more, sold later, yadda yadda yadda."
 
No, back it up.  I did the RIGHT THING a month ago by covering my shorts.  And I also did the RIGHT THING by selling FSLR at 148.  Why was it the RIGHT THING?  Cause it was my decision.  End of story.
 
In the long run, I will always make plenty of money in the stock market, regardless of what I leave or don't leave on the table in the short run.  And this won't be the last time I feel sick for "leaving a lot on the table."  And if I didn't feel sick about it, then I wouldn't have what I do have.
 
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Posted: #104
fyi - CFC bankruptcy rumors swirling today...denied by the company of course
 
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Posted: #105
So the Fed was debating the last rate cut..the market didnt care for that.

CFC goes under? Man that is some crazy talk, but I guess it wouldnt be the LARGEST to fall in history..but it would shock me.

Funny how GOOG is up 2% today on such a nasty day for the market.

Also I notice that ETFC getting hit again as the so called "suitors" only want to pick up the pieces, not buy the company..my comments about their mortgage baggage seems to be the exact issue. Ameritrade and Schwab dont want the mortgage CDO asset issue just to get the brokerage accounts..

 
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Posted: #106
Wow..

Hard rally fellas...big time rally, as strong as the fall earlier.

If they take FSLR positive after being down 15 I am going to be SHOCKED...
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #107
CC,

You are right..making money is what separates the wheat from the chaff.. taking a profit after a trade is NEVER NEVER wrong and you are better than me in that regard.

I let 20 pts of DRYS go turn into a 10 pt loss..this market is so swift and short term that even if you make a gain in a day or two you have to take it, and I did not..

Plenty of you guys had the financials right the whole way down, so kudos goes to you...
 
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Posted: #108
Cheers, WSC.....
 
Didn't get the cataclysmic panic selling so needed in the financials today to signal capitulation.  However, which is typical of tough bear markets (and anyone who thinks we're not in a bear market is f--ing delusional or stupid or ignorant-----or all 3), you get a slow grind down, never getting the capitulation needed.  Interspersed with the slow grind down are vicious short squeezes (exactly like the one at the day's end) which make things even rougher to guage.
 
Let's face it, what we got today is what you get in bear markets, and this bear market, unfortunately, probably has a long time of shelf life before it dies.
 
Plenty of volatility.  Best way to game it is to be damn long a lot of cash, and just fade the spikey trends with VERY CONSERVATIVE profit goals and tight stops, and when your profit goal is hit, you get the hell out of your position before you get whipsawed and then angered into making an emotional decision, which is wrong 9 times out of 10.
 
Rough, rough, rough.  Gonna be like this for a long, long, long time.
 
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Posted: #109
long drunken weekend ,cant believe i took it in the ass in the baltimore game,,cost me a 4 team parlay  for 5500,,this is the end for countrywide,,wall,,looks like i made the right move getting in and out of etrade ,makin some cash and gettin the fuck out,,and as i have said in this forum before, i did not believe a ''bailout'' package could or would be done for the financials,,100 buck oil is around the corner,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,for u gunners
 
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Posted: #110
WSC,
 
HANS is getting to Buy zone... what do you think?
 
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Posted: #111
boiler,

I lost on PITT in my tease more than Balt who I also had in a tease.

I did kick butt though with the Cards and Cards ML and a few others..good thing to win once in a while..

So you think CFC is done? Done means shareholders get the shaft, not that the business is done. They will reorg and return at WORST..much like Delta Air etc..

I still dont think CFC is done..you guys see that monster rally at the end of the day on the stock?     
 
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Posted: #112
Gunners,

man you are reading my mind.

I was thinking that HANS is where I want it, as is NTRI. I think longer term both of these stocks are safe, as is WFMI.

HANS might look expensive but I am willing to take that risk, with correct stops in place etc.

I would love it in the middle 30s of course..
 
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Posted: #113
right,not that the buisness is done,,just cfc as we now know it,,,idid see huge comeback at end of the day,,,i actually had th j-e-t-s this weekend on the advice of good cappers on the football forum
 
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Posted: #114
CFC rally............a short-covering time bomb.  This one will bounce between 10 and 12 for a good while during all the hand-wringing.
 
Buy it at 10ish....sell it at 12ish.  Ask questions later.
 
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Posted: #115
I see CFC is down in AHs......10.08......just got long 1000 shares for a VERY SHORT TERM "trade."
 
Will look to bail out soon, as I think this approaches 12ish sooner than later.
 
Time will tell.
 
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Posted: #116
gl with cfc,,,2nite in coll. hoops,,duke over,,virginia over,,ucla over and mizzou over,,and over in the coll. football game.........scoreboards around the county better lite up 2nite,,,time 2 drink gl.
 
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Posted: #117
WCG: Got stopped out today at $37.50.  Who knows what can happen to them short-term.  But longer term, I think they'll come out relatively unharmed.  Cramer been bashing the crap out of this stock, and it's only been going up, killing his short position.
 
That said. hopefully I'll get the chance to buy back in at the lower 30's.
 
Best Regards All !!!
 
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Posted: #118

 Crude at 99.29 as I write this.

 The question of a bailout previously discussed raises the notion that the FED and the Treasury have limited options.Is it truly in their power to rectify that which they helped create?

 I hope everyone has a good day tomorrow and a happy holiday.

 The market seems to resemble a person I knew who was bipolar...of course now when someone mentions bipolar to me I try to run away as fast as humanly possible, but that is another story...although I am certainly tempted to have the same reaction to this market!

 Have a safe one everyone!
 

 
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Posted: #119
Bailout package......some of you in here have misunderstood me on this.....I'll make it simple here..........and if you read carefully, then "maybe" you'll see what I'm saying.  Regardless, this has become tiresome.
 
Had the federal gov't engineered some sort of package where credit strapped homebuyers (especially the more recent ones) were given help/time/etc... in making their mortgage payments, then that would have been construed as a "bailout" by the "bipolar market."  Thus, shorts in CTX, SPY, C, and COF would have been hit.  Never, ever did I say or think that Bernanke/treasury/whoever/whatever could just make the subprime chaos "just go away."
 
OK?
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #120
Thanks Boiler on the good thoughts for my CFC trade.  "If" there is a gap up on the open and there is money on the table, I'll take it and run.....no questions asked.  If flat or down from 10.08, I'll play it by ear.  Won't be around today to post.
 
Current Longs (long haul):
 
SPWR (128.9ish)
MSFT (33.7ish)
CRDC (8.9ish)
GTLS (26ish)
 
Current long "short term trades":
 
1000 X CFC (10.08)
5000 X ETFC (3.84)
 
 
Yes, everyone in here, have a "very safe and happy TG!"  All of you have a lot to offer.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #121
Futures looking rough...went long a little CFC yesterday as well in the 9 range.
 
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Posted: #122

 CC

 Did not mean to be tiresome or dense...however, I will say,(and irrespective of any of your comments, and they were not aimed at you), as far as the Fed's situation goes, they have resorted to their usual methods, and the market is in fact down since they have.
 
 I am simply suggesting that this situation is beyond their abilities to control.They are caught in a no win circumstance, where if they cut, they lose, as the dollar drops like a stone and oil rockets upwards, and if they don't cut, they lose, and preside over a gut wrenching recession in an election year. ..not a very palatable menu of choices.Greenspam happily left the restaurant before that menu was provided.

  Anyway, the market appears to be grasping at straws. Any shred of bad news, it tanks.Any remote reason to be optimistic, it rallies briefly.

 I think it reasonable to think we are going to hear a lot more bad news than good in the coming months.



 
 
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Posted: #123
short day for me,,outta here at noon,,drink all day and then go to nit at the garden 2nite,,cfc down again,,about a buck right now,,everything down,this market blows,and will for some time,although i think i will pick up some csco right about now,,i cant do any work today,,people in my office are busting ouy the booze already,,not even 11:00 am,,depending on how drunk i get 2nite will determine if i will post my football picks 2morrow,,thats it for me,gl to all ,lets make some loot on holiday gambling,,short everything in this market and start drinking heavily,sage advice ,peace
 
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Posted: #124
Picked up some HLIT today at 10 bucks..a hair under 10.


 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #125
Absolutely TERRIBLE close.

Bears trapped longs the last hour and took the market to the lows.

Have a good holiday everyone.


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