November Stock Talk III

Don't see that happening anyway anyhow.  Better chance to finish at fresh lows.

Tried CRDC at 8  no dice...

Looked at GOOG, nope

seriously, they miss by 3 cents on most likely inflated estimates and it drops 30%

I'm thinking about buying this one too.

 

 

From what I read the FDA report on energy drinks and high blood pressure did not help.Is that what they produce? Don't follow them

Gunners,

Exactly..plus they were down from almost 70 in total.

I like the odds at that price..and I think it gets there.

NTRI is in my sights too..not as much upside, but longer term at this price I feel VERY safe owning the stock..

Vermeer,

Yep...energy drinks and they also have their line of natural sodas and drinks..

But definately a bev company. I really need to call my friend and ask if Pepsi is going to team with or buy Hansen..

Read this today, makes me think perhaps more SKF in the future?

The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rule 157 will make it harder for companies to avoid putting market prices on securities considered hardest to value, known as Level 3 assets, Royal Bank’s chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah in London wrote in a note today. The new rule is effective Nov. 15.

``This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250 billion to $500 billion of losses,’’ Janjuah said. ``The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion’’ of assets they currently value using ``mark- to-make believe.’’ Bloomberg

hansen makes flavored sodas

wall - re: NTRI a very very smart fund is shorting the piss out of NTRI and has been for a little while...caveat emptor

they show a positive position in the company in october but its some sort of short against the box thing...no chance they are net long, so i hear

 My cousin works for pepsi  but I doubt is in a position to know that much. I will call him however, and post what he knows if he does know anything worth relating.
NTRI is something I have looked at and I agree with you...

Level 3 assets definition as per cbs marketwatch re: Citigroup

“Level 3 assets are holdings that are so illiquid, or trade so infrequently, that they have no reliable price, so their valuations are based on management’s best guess. The investment bank said its total liabilities related to level 3 assets at quarter-end were $40.36 billion, according to the Form 10-Q. Citigroup said it often hedges its level 3 positions.”

Koaj,

It would make sense to short against the box since the stock is in a free fall..little risk and plenty of time to cover and not get harmed.

I see NTRI as a 50% return from these levels and have it be an EASY trade..if that takes a year or two it wont matter..looking at forward PE numbers, the stock is undervalued by a nice percentage.

I like risks like this..same with HANS..these calculated longer risks are ones I can take and feel good about it.

Same would be if JNPR went to the low 20s (I liked it at 17 and lower as you remember) CSCO to the mid to low 20s etc.

Value plays on good companies.     

Vermeer,

My comment about Pepsi is after having lunch with my college friend last month. He works in upper management for a local Pepsi bottler. I guess in December they have their annual sales meeting for the entire company and supposedly they have a large annoucement on the strategy for energy drinks..since Pepsi has little presence and the margins are awesome they are wanting in.

I doubt they are going to partner with a private firm like Red Bull..that doesnt seem likely to me. So I am thinking Hansen is the next likely candidate.

The only issue I have about this is Hansen has signed some distrubition agreements with BUD already...

Here is an example of premium being blown into options today.

Yesterday I bot some SPWR options, 140 calls for November at 10.50, they closed around 10.20 on the offer, 9.60 on the bid.

Right now with the stock down 2.70 the options are bidding 10.70 which is up 50 cents from the close.

Unreal...

Indices starting melt again...

 Wall your friend is exactly in the same position as my cousin.Because he is on tto he bottling side I figured no real way of knowing much, but you never know.I will call him regardless, just to catch up, and he may surprise me. Unfortunately he is the ultimate company man (and former Army Ranger) so he keeps info close to the vest regarding his employer.

Vermeer,

My friend is ALSO a company man..been with Pepsi since when we were in college..totally devoted.

That said, he will tell me anything..no reason not to.

Pepsi SUCKS to work for..I dont know why my friend works there..they pay below average and there is shifting going on all the time in the company.

Oh and my friend also works for PBG, which is the bottling group.

Here comes the market...bond market close, market go up..

Here she comes....

DOW gonna go positive, what a joke.

well who's getting trapped? the Bulls or the Bears?

market roaring back the last hour BUT it doesn't change the fundamentals

Rat,

Bond market closes and the stock market rallies has been the trademark for things lately.

Look at the rallies-

GOOG 30 pts off the low
BIDU 20 pts off low
AAPL 13 pts off low
RIMM 10 pts off low
SPWR with a 25 pt intra day high to low, going positive and 7 pts off low

Maybe they dont bring it positive but the bears are not in control just yet.

 Doug Kass permabear wrote today he looks for a year end rally.

I like this volatility as I seem to ride em up sell and buy em back on the downside.

GOOG back over $700  after all the excitement...maybe they did throw Bernanke overboard