This promises to be another wild week and month. Buckle up.
Bill Gross estimates total cost of bogus CDOs as 250 billion dollars, spread out over time and institutions of course.
Estimates further Fed cuts to get interest rates "into the 3s" Going to buy slugs of hard assets if that is the case, gold should really do well and of course the USD will continue its swan dive if true.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This promises to be another wild week and month. Buckle up.
Bill Gross estimates total cost of bogus CDOs as 250 billion dollars, spread out over time and institutions of course.
Estimates further Fed cuts to get interest rates "into the 3s" Going to buy slugs of hard assets if that is the case, gold should really do well and of course the USD will continue its swan dive if true.
if you want to take a look at a good gage of people's fear, click
its the 13 week treasury and a bearish equity barometer is sub 4% here...basically this is a short term safe haven from scared stock money
see the august collapse and notice we are currently at our worst levels since then
sit cash or short the financials...tech, commmodities are to crowded. if anyone likes currencies maybe buy the japanese yen and wait for the yen/anything carry trade to unwind (another short term safe haven)
if you want to take a look at a good gage of people's fear, click
its the 13 week treasury and a bearish equity barometer is sub 4% here...basically this is a short term safe haven from scared stock money
see the august collapse and notice we are currently at our worst levels since then
sit cash or short the financials...tech, commmodities are to crowded. if anyone likes currencies maybe buy the japanese yen and wait for the yen/anything carry trade to unwind (another short term safe haven)
CRDC: I agree WSC. I will be selling a couple dogs before year-end and using those proceeds to take another position in CRDC. I just don't think there's any rush to get back in.
PTEC: Just got stopped out on my way back from lunch at $12.75. Probably had the stop set too tight. It had a nice run, especially today with the announcement of the hypervisor rollout. I still feel this is a long term winner, and will be looking for an opportunity to get back in. Thanks KOAJ.
CRDC: I agree WSC. I will be selling a couple dogs before year-end and using those proceeds to take another position in CRDC. I just don't think there's any rush to get back in.
PTEC: Just got stopped out on my way back from lunch at $12.75. Probably had the stop set too tight. It had a nice run, especially today with the announcement of the hypervisor rollout. I still feel this is a long term winner, and will be looking for an opportunity to get back in. Thanks KOAJ.
Pretty well pissed at myself for getting stopped out over a few cents , especially in light of the following:
Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: PTEC), the global leader in core systems firmware, announced today that the Company's executives will be presenting to the investment community on Tuesday, November 6 and Wednesday, November 7, 2007, at the American Electronics Associate Classic Financial Conference in Monterey, CA.
If they get more analysts coverage, I think it continues it's strong run.
Pretty well pissed at myself for getting stopped out over a few cents , especially in light of the following:
Phoenix Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: PTEC), the global leader in core systems firmware, announced today that the Company's executives will be presenting to the investment community on Tuesday, November 6 and Wednesday, November 7, 2007, at the American Electronics Associate Classic Financial Conference in Monterey, CA.
If they get more analysts coverage, I think it continues it's strong run.
Selling half of my position in USU at 9.52 and will put a stop in on the other half at 9.21. If I get stopped out I'll make a small profit. If it runs with half of my position higher I'll be happy.
Selling half of my position in USU at 9.52 and will put a stop in on the other half at 9.21. If I get stopped out I'll make a small profit. If it runs with half of my position higher I'll be happy.
just sold my IIG ahead of earnings tomorrow. i can't handle the suspense. i made 20% since august. if they blow out earnings and go up tomorrow, ah well.
thinking of what to buy with the fresh cash... maybe CRDC on this dip
just sold my IIG ahead of earnings tomorrow. i can't handle the suspense. i made 20% since august. if they blow out earnings and go up tomorrow, ah well.
thinking of what to buy with the fresh cash... maybe CRDC on this dip
Are PTEC and VMW competing in a similar technology?
July,
No, they are not competing against one another. PTEC's hypervisor is strictly for the PC market, which is embedded in their BIOS. Go to the previous thread, I posted some links there that were helpful to me in understanding the technology.
Also, I do think this makes them a takeover target, possibly VMW.
Quote Originally Posted by july4433:
Are PTEC and VMW competing in a similar technology?
July,
No, they are not competing against one another. PTEC's hypervisor is strictly for the PC market, which is embedded in their BIOS. Go to the previous thread, I posted some links there that were helpful to me in understanding the technology.
Also, I do think this makes them a takeover target, possibly VMW.
Sorry, it was actually the first thread in November I posted the link to the Yahoo message board regarding PTEC. Three trading days and three threads, wow.
July,
Sorry, it was actually the first thread in November I posted the link to the Yahoo message board regarding PTEC. Three trading days and three threads, wow.
Just wanted to say thanks on the advice in "Nov. II"... I'm keeping a close eye on CY because although I had it since $23, I just bought more at $35.35 after POZN stunk it up. Thanks again!
-Stifler
Just wanted to say thanks on the advice in "Nov. II"... I'm keeping a close eye on CY because although I had it since $23, I just bought more at $35.35 after POZN stunk it up. Thanks again!
Hope all had a nice day. Sat on sidelines again as far as "trading." Glad to see GTLS got some pop today.....hope it has some legs, but don't know. Am planning to buy CRDC on its weakness.....exactly what I wanted----for it to get "under tha radar" so I can add exposure. Good.
KOAJ-
Well in this past w-end on football. I believe you had a successful time fading the public. Was with you BIG on Bills. Watch this.....the idiot public will be betting Cincy again this week......
Cheers
Hope all had a nice day. Sat on sidelines again as far as "trading." Glad to see GTLS got some pop today.....hope it has some legs, but don't know. Am planning to buy CRDC on its weakness.....exactly what I wanted----for it to get "under tha radar" so I can add exposure. Good.
KOAJ-
Well in this past w-end on football. I believe you had a successful time fading the public. Was with you BIG on Bills. Watch this.....the idiot public will be betting Cincy again this week......
GOOG keeps rolling, SKF is rocking, and unfortunately, my laptop blew up, so I am outta commission during the day until I grab another one.
I remain, as ever, a total bear on the USD, and think KOAJ is right on the yen .Metals and materials...this crap is not going away any time soon.Bob Rubin might actualy have to earn his $150 million directorship sinecure.Ah, connections, they do help. I did get a laugh contemplating that such a huge American concern is truly run by a Saudi, all the others are mere lapdogs, despite their enormous paychecks and egos
GOOG keeps rolling, SKF is rocking, and unfortunately, my laptop blew up, so I am outta commission during the day until I grab another one.
I remain, as ever, a total bear on the USD, and think KOAJ is right on the yen .Metals and materials...this crap is not going away any time soon.Bob Rubin might actualy have to earn his $150 million directorship sinecure.Ah, connections, they do help. I did get a laugh contemplating that such a huge American concern is truly run by a Saudi, all the others are mere lapdogs, despite their enormous paychecks and egos
wall wcg up 5 bucks today,still own any or did u get stopped already? things are really in the shitter and its only gettin worse for many of the reasons already mentioned here ,,dollar weakening more,big write downs with more coming next qutr...etc..etc..been away all weekend so i might be responding to yhings posted a few days ago..1st,i saw it mentioned here that jeruselum[spelling?] will be next and it will be a nuke,i agree ,that is why iran must be dealt with,it will be hard to do so since iraq is so fucked up and all credibility is lost ,still to not take action because of the iraq situation would be a huge mistake,,,also i think its vermeer,i could be wrong, or someone else who constantly brings up a bailout package in capital letters all the time for the countrywides of the world, i think i understand why this thought process exists,but i just dont see it ,how would it be done?i think its to late for any type of bailout,but who knows,,pittsburgh water boy just scored a touchdown,,,anyway, tough times ahead,i agree sticking to big tech,msft for example,gold ,all the staples that perform in a recession,,good weekend gambling, although i did have neb on sat ,, bye bye calllahan,,got the over 2nite which was a w by halftime ,and have big ben as my fantasy qb....nice start for alibaba,,2 more beers ,seinfeld then bed, no need 2 watch mnf
wall wcg up 5 bucks today,still own any or did u get stopped already? things are really in the shitter and its only gettin worse for many of the reasons already mentioned here ,,dollar weakening more,big write downs with more coming next qutr...etc..etc..been away all weekend so i might be responding to yhings posted a few days ago..1st,i saw it mentioned here that jeruselum[spelling?] will be next and it will be a nuke,i agree ,that is why iran must be dealt with,it will be hard to do so since iraq is so fucked up and all credibility is lost ,still to not take action because of the iraq situation would be a huge mistake,,,also i think its vermeer,i could be wrong, or someone else who constantly brings up a bailout package in capital letters all the time for the countrywides of the world, i think i understand why this thought process exists,but i just dont see it ,how would it be done?i think its to late for any type of bailout,but who knows,,pittsburgh water boy just scored a touchdown,,,anyway, tough times ahead,i agree sticking to big tech,msft for example,gold ,all the staples that perform in a recession,,good weekend gambling, although i did have neb on sat ,, bye bye calllahan,,got the over 2nite which was a w by halftime ,and have big ben as my fantasy qb....nice start for alibaba,,2 more beers ,seinfeld then bed, no need 2 watch mnf
I dont know how a bailout package would work either..but the FED is giving one anyway with these artificially low rates, meaning if the people have any kind of equity they can refi and not get hurt. If someone is upside down in the house, they dont deserve a bailout if you ask me and if they had an ARM on top of it..well they are stuck period.
I got in and out and in and out of WCG, but funny, my first inclination on the stock was if you timed it right it could be a SERIOUS winner longer term. If the stock goes below 30 again, and there isnt some reprecussions from Medicare, it is a buy for sure.
I cannot believe that Gold is over 800 and oil over 90, what a joke..to me these bubbles will pop, along with our extended bloated market..
I think IMB is going to be a good trade for me..looking for 50% plus on this trade..in at 12.20 as you recall..
boiler,
I dont know how a bailout package would work either..but the FED is giving one anyway with these artificially low rates, meaning if the people have any kind of equity they can refi and not get hurt. If someone is upside down in the house, they dont deserve a bailout if you ask me and if they had an ARM on top of it..well they are stuck period.
I got in and out and in and out of WCG, but funny, my first inclination on the stock was if you timed it right it could be a SERIOUS winner longer term. If the stock goes below 30 again, and there isnt some reprecussions from Medicare, it is a buy for sure.
I cannot believe that Gold is over 800 and oil over 90, what a joke..to me these bubbles will pop, along with our extended bloated market..
I think IMB is going to be a good trade for me..looking for 50% plus on this trade..in at 12.20 as you recall..
i hear what ur saying about rates,its good if u are a normal person with a normal mortgage it lets u refinance with these low rates,,but what i think vermeer or claycourt,whoever it was, was refering to was a bailout of the companies involved with the mortgage mess,,they were talking about shorting the countrywides and other financials associated with the mess but were afraid to because of a bailout of these type of companies thus perhaps getting the stocks of these companies out of the toilet and therefore would kill the short position,,,i think,,,i have an equity line so iguess i save a few bucks more a month now,but its not tthat big a deal,the damage it does to the dollar as pointed out by many withpushinh down the rates makes it almost not worth it
i hear what ur saying about rates,its good if u are a normal person with a normal mortgage it lets u refinance with these low rates,,but what i think vermeer or claycourt,whoever it was, was refering to was a bailout of the companies involved with the mortgage mess,,they were talking about shorting the countrywides and other financials associated with the mess but were afraid to because of a bailout of these type of companies thus perhaps getting the stocks of these companies out of the toilet and therefore would kill the short position,,,i think,,,i have an equity line so iguess i save a few bucks more a month now,but its not tthat big a deal,the damage it does to the dollar as pointed out by many withpushinh down the rates makes it almost not worth it
Personally, plan to add exposure to CRDC today. Will watch the movement, hoping for some sort of "capitulation/suicide drop" from weak holders, but am not expecting it.
If there is a capitulation sell-off, then will get in at first sign of "stability." If no sell-off, will just use "the gut" to tell me when.
As I have said ad infinitum on this site, I am in CRDC for the long haul and look for "20ish level" by end of 2008.
3 long-haul holdings:
CRDC
GTLS
SYY
None of the 3 is much for "trading." You're either in them for the long haul, or are not in them. Plain and simple.....bottom line.
Cheers
Personally, plan to add exposure to CRDC today. Will watch the movement, hoping for some sort of "capitulation/suicide drop" from weak holders, but am not expecting it.
If there is a capitulation sell-off, then will get in at first sign of "stability." If no sell-off, will just use "the gut" to tell me when.
As I have said ad infinitum on this site, I am in CRDC for the long haul and look for "20ish level" by end of 2008.
3 long-haul holdings:
CRDC
GTLS
SYY
None of the 3 is much for "trading." You're either in them for the long haul, or are not in them. Plain and simple.....bottom line.
Firstly, BR I would say to you that we have witnessed bailouts of LTCM and we have witnessed bailouts of the Mexican peson...why not bailouts of the mortgage/banking heavyweights?
From an ezine, sums it up the present difficulties fairly well I think...the original did not have bold emphases..
The Structured Credit Market: Of course, the most severe sell-off occurred in the
structured credit space this summer. Anything mortgage related basically turned into toxic waste,
or was finally recognized as the toxic waste it had always been. It remains to be seen what the
recoveries will be on mortgage-related paper, but they likely won't be meaningful. But investors
did not stop there. Many of the investors who had purchased the liabilities of Collateralized Debt
Obligations (CDOs) holding mortgages also purchased CDOs holding corporate loans, known as
Collateralized Loan Obligations or CLOs.
In many cases, the ultimate funders of CLOs were the Special Investment Vehicles, or
SIVs, we are reading about having to be bailed out today. It beggars reason to think that we are
again seeing the markets being urged by government regulators to bail out private enterprises run
by multimillionaires that were leveraged 100 to 1. While the front pages of the financial press
were filled with reports about record-sized LBOs, journalists missed the real story - that these
large transactions were being financed by a huge shadow economy that was not recorded on the
books of any financial institution, was as leveraged as Long Term Capital Management was ten
years ago, and was operating completely beyond the reach of regulators. The financial fate of the
credit markets was once again left in the hands of a relatively small group of self-interested
professionals whose incentives were structured in a way that could best be described as "heads I
win, tails you lose." There is nothing tragic about the collapse of the SIVs - their rise and fall can
only be described as a farce.
As a result of the fact that SIVs owned structured products backed by mortgages and
corporate loans, and the value of their mortgage-backed paper plunged, SIVs were into
liquidation. They could not sell mortgage paper because nobody else wanted to buy it, so they
sold CLO paper. They also stopped buying newly issued CLO paper, which meant that new
CLOs could not be issued. CLOs had been the major source of financing for leveraged buyouts,
accounting for far more than half of the demand for leveraged loans used to finance these
transactions. All of a sudden the gravy train turned to mush.
Firstly, BR I would say to you that we have witnessed bailouts of LTCM and we have witnessed bailouts of the Mexican peson...why not bailouts of the mortgage/banking heavyweights?
From an ezine, sums it up the present difficulties fairly well I think...the original did not have bold emphases..
The Structured Credit Market: Of course, the most severe sell-off occurred in the
structured credit space this summer. Anything mortgage related basically turned into toxic waste,
or was finally recognized as the toxic waste it had always been. It remains to be seen what the
recoveries will be on mortgage-related paper, but they likely won't be meaningful. But investors
did not stop there. Many of the investors who had purchased the liabilities of Collateralized Debt
Obligations (CDOs) holding mortgages also purchased CDOs holding corporate loans, known as
Collateralized Loan Obligations or CLOs.
In many cases, the ultimate funders of CLOs were the Special Investment Vehicles, or
SIVs, we are reading about having to be bailed out today. It beggars reason to think that we are
again seeing the markets being urged by government regulators to bail out private enterprises run
by multimillionaires that were leveraged 100 to 1. While the front pages of the financial press
were filled with reports about record-sized LBOs, journalists missed the real story - that these
large transactions were being financed by a huge shadow economy that was not recorded on the
books of any financial institution, was as leveraged as Long Term Capital Management was ten
years ago, and was operating completely beyond the reach of regulators. The financial fate of the
credit markets was once again left in the hands of a relatively small group of self-interested
professionals whose incentives were structured in a way that could best be described as "heads I
win, tails you lose." There is nothing tragic about the collapse of the SIVs - their rise and fall can
only be described as a farce.
As a result of the fact that SIVs owned structured products backed by mortgages and
corporate loans, and the value of their mortgage-backed paper plunged, SIVs were into
liquidation. They could not sell mortgage paper because nobody else wanted to buy it, so they
sold CLO paper. They also stopped buying newly issued CLO paper, which meant that new
CLOs could not be issued. CLOs had been the major source of financing for leveraged buyouts,
accounting for far more than half of the demand for leveraged loans used to finance these
transactions. All of a sudden the gravy train turned to mush.
I will add that a lot of this is a confidence game (and the shoterned "con game" may be most apt.) From here on out you will hear a bunch of economists explain to you why we are not going into recession:despite what eveyone can feel and see if they look around. Solemn stats people will assur you that they do not see any diminishment in profits etc etc...but it is an emperor with no clothes routine. And when Robert Rubin calls up some buds to cash in some political IOUs, you bet they are going to get a package done for Bobby and friends.Too important to the political parties they finance and work for not to save.
I
I will add that a lot of this is a confidence game (and the shoterned "con game" may be most apt.) From here on out you will hear a bunch of economists explain to you why we are not going into recession:despite what eveyone can feel and see if they look around. Solemn stats people will assur you that they do not see any diminishment in profits etc etc...but it is an emperor with no clothes routine. And when Robert Rubin calls up some buds to cash in some political IOUs, you bet they are going to get a package done for Bobby and friends.Too important to the political parties they finance and work for not to save.
vermeer - why you cannot bail out the mortgage lenders/resellers. well i dont think its possible.
basically the CDOs and other derivitives are completely synthetic and they are fine as long as you can roll them over and price them/mark to market/roll them into something else
suddenly the chain fell off the bike and the buyers of these CDOs, derivitives, and CMOs (all SIVs) now dont want to buy anymore...they dont want the risk... so if buyers of debt dont want risk, the lenders of money (creators of debt) cant lend money unless they keep it on their books (which most dont want to do)
thus the credit crunch aka the Great Unwind...please read Financial Armageddon by Michael Panzner
first debt, then derivatives, then the government (after failed bailout attempt)
sit cash, short the financials esp rudderless ships like C and MER. commodities and gold and dollar shorting and tech have become very crowded...what happens when people want to take profits from those trades?
vermeer - why you cannot bail out the mortgage lenders/resellers. well i dont think its possible.
basically the CDOs and other derivitives are completely synthetic and they are fine as long as you can roll them over and price them/mark to market/roll them into something else
suddenly the chain fell off the bike and the buyers of these CDOs, derivitives, and CMOs (all SIVs) now dont want to buy anymore...they dont want the risk... so if buyers of debt dont want risk, the lenders of money (creators of debt) cant lend money unless they keep it on their books (which most dont want to do)
thus the credit crunch aka the Great Unwind...please read Financial Armageddon by Michael Panzner
first debt, then derivatives, then the government (after failed bailout attempt)
sit cash, short the financials esp rudderless ships like C and MER. commodities and gold and dollar shorting and tech have become very crowded...what happens when people want to take profits from those trades?
, especially in light of the following:
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