All Forums | Investments

JULY STOCK TALK IV

Participants:
Search
Views: 1753
Posts: 99
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 3392
Posted: #76
I bought 2 Aug $145 puts on AAPL earlier today at $2.82, for a gameble, representing my maximum loss position on my trades, roughly $500-$600.  I was prepared to lose it all, but who knows, they may be in the money tomorrow!  any idea what those options would open at tomorrow Wall?  say if AAPL opened at $148 where it is now?  I could have gotten them later in the day for $2.20 or so as well, but i won't be complaining about that. 
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 58424
Posted: #77
If the stock opens at 148 tomorrow, those options are full of time premium and will probably be worth 6 bucks or more.

You only have two, so you might see if it turns into a 130 type move in the next week and make a nice return.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 3392
Posted: #78
I'm more than likely going to sell them on the open, unless the market is looking terrible as a whole.
 
But i decided to buy the puts because of the mantra that News follows the already established Trend of the stock.  AAPL has been in a down trend since May 14th. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 328
Posted: #79
I filled my aaple strangle at 15.00 about 8 minutes before the close.  I got the 170 call at 7.42 and the 165 put at 8.58.  Should be decent....with the time premium too.  Will probably sell the put right away tomorrow if can 19.00 or so.  not sure if worth selling the call, may wait it out to see if can get lucky on that side.  hopefully take a 300-500 profit right away and not get greedy. 
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 58424
Posted: #80
Nice job fellas.

Grinder, if those calls were going for next to nothing I might let them roll..Ive seen the low end of a strangle come back, looking over my last years trades when I did taxes.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 328
Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Nice job fellas.

Grinder, if those calls were going for next to nothing I might let them roll..Ive seen the low end of a strangle come back, looking over my last years trades when I did taxes.

yeah, thats what i'm leaning towards.... big moves on ISRG on earnings day.  Might do something tomorrow....any thoughts?
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 58424
Posted: #82
Grinder,

With so far from expiry, these strangles/straddles on higher priced stocks just dont pay. If I were playing a side I would go with puts, but I would probably sit pat and not touch it.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 328
Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Grinder,

With so far from expiry, these strangles/straddles on higher priced stocks just dont pay. If I were playing a side I would go with puts, but I would probably sit pat and not touch it.

yeah, was running different scenarios and all seemed like high risk low reward.  here are some other companies reporting.....a few stand out.

22nd 
ILMN, VMW, YHOO

23rd
CMG, BIDU, FFIV, IRBT, WFR, NTRI, NTGR


 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 58424
Posted: #84
Well CMG has come down a ton, I would go long side on them even though I think fair value is 20 pts from here longer term.

YHOO has no reward to me, I cannot see them moving 10% come earnings

BIDU options will be priced high and I think they keep floating it for a while, meaning it wont get killed YET, but I really think longer term this is a sub 100 stock..maybe 50 bucks eventually.

NTRI I would love a retest of the lows and pick it up for a longer term hold.

Most all the names have been zapped so far that that a straddle seems pointless. The only one with juice on the downside MIGHT be FFIV, but I dont see value in many here. The stocks with downside potential are the solars, ferts, coal and steel stocks, ones still flying and probably likely to fly more but WILL pop at some point.

I wish BIDU options werent so expensive.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Yep, music to my ears.  Sucker's rally.....nothing but short covering.

CANNOT WAIT until first thing Monday morning when I will get short C--------nothing but garbage.

Then, will cover at 10-12...............

Well, did what I said.  Opened a 1000 share short position on C at 19.40 (Mon Jul 21's open).

Not a believer for one second in the latest financial hoopla cause to me, not a damn thing has changed fundamentally, and nothing good is going to fundamentally happen any time soon.  I do not see any "value," either, in the financials.  The latest hype is short covering.  Smart money is selling it, and I don't even think the dumb money is buying.  It's all short covering.

The only thing that works in favor for the disamal US financials is the weak dollar, and that only applies for takeover purposes.  The takeover rumors could keep these horrible ticker symbols afloat by goosing the shorts.

Anyway, will look to cover this thing 10-12ish.

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #86
Watching Paulson and listening to the lies falling from his face.
 
Another hideous open for the US stock market.  We'll see who tries to lie it up and force shorts to cover.
 
Nothing has fundamentally changed to make last week's sucker's rally anything but............a classic bear trap sucker's rally in a dismal economy that is NOT getting better, but getting worse, much worse.
 
Am "comfortable" with my Citibank (C) short, cause there is nothing that fundamentally changed to make it go from 14ish to 20ish in 5 trading days, and I don't think it was undervalued at 14..........it was OVERVALUED.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 2910
Posted: #87

  Wachovia ...ouch!!!!


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #88
And good ol' "WB" is going to get worse as far as ticker symbol price.
 
It'll eventually have to merge with some other institution to stay afloat.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #89
But hey, according to Scholar Ben and his pooch Pauslon, we'll just keep printing money in case there's a run on the banks.
 
That's great.  Devalue the dollar more by printing money that never ever did exist.
 
Eureka.
 
USA..............third world country of the future.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 328
Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Well, did what I said.  Opened a 1000 share short position on C at 19.40 (Mon Jul 21's open).

Not a believer for one second in the latest financial hoopla cause to me, not a damn thing has changed fundamentally, and nothing good is going to fundamentally happen any time soon.  I do not see any "value," either, in the financials.  The latest hype is short covering.  Smart money is selling it, and I don't even think the dumb money is buying.  It's all short covering.

The only thing that works in favor for the disamal US financials is the weak dollar, and that only applies for takeover purposes.  The takeover rumors could keep these horrible ticker symbols afloat by goosing the shorts.

Anyway, will look to cover this thing 10-12ish.


so far so good CC.  Nice start! 18.90...
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #91
Thanks AZ.
 
We could possibly "grind" a while up in this latest round of short covering, which is why I only did 1000 to start.
 
C could technically hit 23-24ish sometime in August, and then when "the analysts" realize that 3Q will be worse than 2Q, C will get shellacked into October.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 3392
Posted: #92
well i missed the open by 10 minutes and i missed my sweet chance to sell those AAPL puts.  i'll wait it out a little now. 
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #93
How the hell can any banks make enough money in 3Q to justify their present overvaluations?
 
From where is this money coming?
 
1) A laid off consumer?
2) Deals?
3) Santa Bernanke's printing press elves?
 
The only way banks can be supported for 3Q is takeover speculation, but if Europe/Asia has any brains, they won't intitiate any buy-outs until symbols like WB (5) and C (12) hit rock bottom.
Why pay now when you can pay on the cheap in 3 months' time?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 328
Posted: #94
thanks for input ws, not sure if i will mess with any or not.  Kind of disappointed in apple puts.  I guess thats the nature of the put side with not as much time premium in them as i'd hope. stock at 150 and 165 going for 16.00.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #95
Gunners-
 
Well in shorting Steve "Icehole" Jobs.
Yeah, take money and run, man.  Smart short money could cover all day today and look for other slaughters, even though AAPL should be priced around 100.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 14917
Posted: #96
Got to sell common short or by common long.  Option prices are so rigged cause no one knows how to price the WayOTMs.
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 58424
Posted: #97
Grinder,

I hope you closed the puts and kept the calls. You could have REALLY made out with the approach.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 328
Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Grinder,

I hope you closed the puts and kept the calls. You could have REALLY made out with the approach.

Did okay considering....I was watching every tick this morning and had to leave for the grind so put in limit order at $15.25 and it filled which covered the cost plus commissions and basically left me a free call at 170 which is working out as good as I could hope.  Gonna let the call ride a little bit.  Didn't do anything else today trading wise.
 
 
Covers Linesmen
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2003
Posts: 58424
Posted: #99
Well if the market keeps going, those 170 calls could end up trading for more than you paid.

I hope it does.
All Forums | Investments
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.