I am not the largest fan of profits by patent or litigation.
Companies
like RMBS are doing the same thing, meaning establishing technology
patents and then having to sue people who abuse their patents.
I
dont agree with some of that guys obvious slanted message. The company
does NOT have deep pockets and I think GOOG would rather spend the 5M
in litigation fees knowing that they could spend LOCM into the poor
house.
I still dont get where exactly these patents protect
the company, what it means profits wise and how they can take these
patents and turn them into CASH on their own, rather than chasing
others with lawyers...
Based on this thinking, I am SHORT 5k shares of LOCM at 6.25
(just kidding)
D2,
I am not the largest fan of profits by patent or litigation.
Companies
like RMBS are doing the same thing, meaning establishing technology
patents and then having to sue people who abuse their patents.
I
dont agree with some of that guys obvious slanted message. The company
does NOT have deep pockets and I think GOOG would rather spend the 5M
in litigation fees knowing that they could spend LOCM into the poor
house.
I still dont get where exactly these patents protect
the company, what it means profits wise and how they can take these
patents and turn them into CASH on their own, rather than chasing
others with lawyers...
Based on this thinking, I am SHORT 5k shares of LOCM at 6.25
Maybe GOOG could litigate it death but then MSFT or YHOO could step up, buy it still incredibly cheaply at anything near where the price is now, and then they could protect the patent and screw GOOG. Is it worth taking the chance when they could be bought so cheap?
Maybe GOOG could litigate it death but then MSFT or YHOO could step up, buy it still incredibly cheaply at anything near where the price is now, and then they could protect the patent and screw GOOG. Is it worth taking the chance when they could be bought so cheap?
I used to buy into the "the stock is so cheap they are going to get bought out" theory.
Does
it mean it wont happen? Not at all..but in my view a company like GOOG
or YHOO or MSFT doesnt even blink at LOCM..they arent competition, they
are an annoyance or just a road bump.
I wouldnt buy this stock because of takeover possibilities, rather momentum and trading hype.
D2,
I dont buy that kind of thinking anymore..
I used to buy into the "the stock is so cheap they are going to get bought out" theory.
Does
it mean it wont happen? Not at all..but in my view a company like GOOG
or YHOO or MSFT doesnt even blink at LOCM..they arent competition, they
are an annoyance or just a road bump.
I wouldnt buy this stock because of takeover possibilities, rather momentum and trading hype.
Sure they are just an annoyance but if you can a company for what is basically couch cushion change and obtain a domain name like local.com and patenting going forward for local searching into a local search market that is growing like bonkers, why not do it. It's not so much buying the company but more like buying the domain and patent. I respect your opinion though. I don't think a buyout would be imminent.
Sure they are just an annoyance but if you can a company for what is basically couch cushion change and obtain a domain name like local.com and patenting going forward for local searching into a local search market that is growing like bonkers, why not do it. It's not so much buying the company but more like buying the domain and patent. I respect your opinion though. I don't think a buyout would be imminent.
Well I have seen so many of these micro caps that should be
bought out for this or that reason and the percentages just dont
support the theory.
Not to say that things dont happen but
larger companies dont tend to spend the money and time to buy little
tech micro companies.
Often times it happens MORE with bio techs
who have a therapy or solution, those get bought out..little tech
companies tend not to get bought out.
Think of the time and cost
it takes to research and purchase..its probably nearly the market cap
of the stock to pay the lawyers and transaction costs to buy them.
D2,
Well I have seen so many of these micro caps that should be
bought out for this or that reason and the percentages just dont
support the theory.
Not to say that things dont happen but
larger companies dont tend to spend the money and time to buy little
tech micro companies.
Often times it happens MORE with bio techs
who have a therapy or solution, those get bought out..little tech
companies tend not to get bought out.
Think of the time and cost
it takes to research and purchase..its probably nearly the market cap
of the stock to pay the lawyers and transaction costs to buy them.
If that's the case then the other two options are to pay the royalties or defend suits against patent infringements. The company does have cash to go after violators and maybe some will agree to to partner up and pay the royalties. Still think at the current price it's worth the risk/reward.
If that's the case then the other two options are to pay the royalties or defend suits against patent infringements. The company does have cash to go after violators and maybe some will agree to to partner up and pay the royalties. Still think at the current price it's worth the risk/reward.
Smells like RMBS...that article is exactly what RMBS
does..and they have to go to court all the time to both enforce their
patents and also defend the boundaries of the same patents.
Tough to put a valuation on a company who has to litigate to claim profits and revenues..
D2,
Smells like RMBS...that article is exactly what RMBS
does..and they have to go to court all the time to both enforce their
patents and also defend the boundaries of the same patents.
Tough to put a valuation on a company who has to litigate to claim profits and revenues..
work is great. but many hurdles to overcome but once i get over these short term hurdles things should be even better. i need to send u an email been meaning to do it for some time now but am so busy.
work is great. but many hurdles to overcome but once i get over these short term hurdles things should be even better. i need to send u an email been meaning to do it for some time now but am so busy.
If you do an estimation, make sure you based it on a P/E of 20 - 25 and on acceptable revenues for Trexima for 2008 -2009 - 2010 and on the expected revenues for the PN400 drug in 2010 and behond. KNow that POZN will receive YEARLY 6% on all the Trexima sales below 600 million and 17 % on all sales ABOVE 600 million. Every 1th of januari they ll put the meter at ZERO!!! In 2010, POZN will receive 17% on ALL sales from $ ZERO on!!! \For the PN400 they will receive 6% on all sales. In 2016, POZN will receive 17 % on ALL sales of the PN400 drug. Also note that the selling for Imitrex is now about 1.2 BILLION dollars and GSK expect to replace Imitrex by Trexima. GSK also thinks that they can take market share away from other brands ( Total yearly market for triptans was 2.2 Billion dollar in USA and is still growing) Also take note that the Trexima deal is only for the USA market and the PN400 is a WORLDWIDE DEAL. I expect sales of around 900 million of Trexima for 2010 and about 1.6 billion for the PN400 drug in 2011. If that will happen then POZN will collect around 2010 net revenues around 104 million on Trexima and about 96 million on the PN400 = 200 million in total. With a P/e of 25 and with about 30 million shares outstanding, this would bring POZN at 166 dollar a share. This calculation doesn t content the value of their PA325 drug or others. Every serious investor will realise this value when the FDA approves Trexima, so if POZN will be approved by the 1th of August, I would not be surprised to see an EXTREME climb, based on FUTURE EARNINGS. SO I think that POZN shares, on the day of approval, could spike to 50 - 60 dollar a share and go down later to the 40 dollar level and stay there till we receive the 4th quarter figures of the real sales of Trexima. ( I expect a steady climb in July to the 25 level and then a 100% spike on the news ) So now give us YOUR estimations BASED ON FIGURES !!!!
Back to pozn ws.
this is what i base my share price on.
If you do an estimation, make sure you based it on a P/E of 20 - 25 and on acceptable revenues for Trexima for 2008 -2009 - 2010 and on the expected revenues for the PN400 drug in 2010 and behond. KNow that POZN will receive YEARLY 6% on all the Trexima sales below 600 million and 17 % on all sales ABOVE 600 million. Every 1th of januari they ll put the meter at ZERO!!! In 2010, POZN will receive 17% on ALL sales from $ ZERO on!!! \For the PN400 they will receive 6% on all sales. In 2016, POZN will receive 17 % on ALL sales of the PN400 drug. Also note that the selling for Imitrex is now about 1.2 BILLION dollars and GSK expect to replace Imitrex by Trexima. GSK also thinks that they can take market share away from other brands ( Total yearly market for triptans was 2.2 Billion dollar in USA and is still growing) Also take note that the Trexima deal is only for the USA market and the PN400 is a WORLDWIDE DEAL. I expect sales of around 900 million of Trexima for 2010 and about 1.6 billion for the PN400 drug in 2011. If that will happen then POZN will collect around 2010 net revenues around 104 million on Trexima and about 96 million on the PN400 = 200 million in total. With a P/e of 25 and with about 30 million shares outstanding, this would bring POZN at 166 dollar a share. This calculation doesn t content the value of their PA325 drug or others. Every serious investor will realise this value when the FDA approves Trexima, so if POZN will be approved by the 1th of August, I would not be surprised to see an EXTREME climb, based on FUTURE EARNINGS. SO I think that POZN shares, on the day of approval, could spike to 50 - 60 dollar a share and go down later to the 40 dollar level and stay there till we receive the 4th quarter figures of the real sales of Trexima. ( I expect a steady climb in July to the 25 level and then a 100% spike on the news ) So now give us YOUR estimations BASED ON FIGURES !!!!
What about PE numbers? Looks interesting based on those 2010 numbers, but at that future point in time what numbers flow to the bottom line vs getting absorbed by R&D etc?
Big$$$,
That is price to sales you are talking about.
What about PE numbers? Looks interesting based on those 2010 numbers, but at that future point in time what numbers flow to the bottom line vs getting absorbed by R&D etc?
The ammt T makes in relation to overall revenues is not
that large. I wouldnt buy T for anything..even though the stock has
done well I think overall their business performance over the past 10
yrs is quite poor.
FSLR not breaking down, it is dropping but it
isnt TANKING..in fact the lows of the day were earlier. WFR barely down
too..nothing ground breaking.
Big$$$,
The ammt T makes in relation to overall revenues is not
that large. I wouldnt buy T for anything..even though the stock has
done well I think overall their business performance over the past 10
yrs is quite poor.
FSLR not breaking down, it is dropping but it
isnt TANKING..in fact the lows of the day were earlier. WFR barely down
too..nothing ground breaking.
LOCM closed up 75% today near the high of the day at $6.92. I think it'll either close below $6 or above $9 of Monday. If you like to gamble, keep on eye on this stock. It could go up really hard the next couple weeks.
LOCM closed up 75% today near the high of the day at $6.92. I think it'll either close below $6 or above $9 of Monday. If you like to gamble, keep on eye on this stock. It could go up really hard the next couple weeks.
hey ws, remember last time earnings came out you helped me with that RIMM straddle? Should have done it again!!!!!!!!! damn, i really would have tried it too but didn't pay attention to the earnings calandar.
hey ws, remember last time earnings came out you helped me with that RIMM straddle? Should have done it again!!!!!!!!! damn, i really would have tried it too but didn't pay attention to the earnings calandar.
Yeah, I didnt post this thought, I think too much about every stupid thing..but I swear I cannot keep up with all the earnings, especially how LATE RIMM is reporting. But yeah they and GOOG and BIDU and every other high priced high beta stock is a great straddle candidate.
I was mouring over those who took the risk on the OTM calls on RIMM..not that I would have, but 15 bucks in each direction would have enticed me..no doubt about it (straddle)
Grinder,
Yeah, I didnt post this thought, I think too much about every stupid thing..but I swear I cannot keep up with all the earnings, especially how LATE RIMM is reporting. But yeah they and GOOG and BIDU and every other high priced high beta stock is a great straddle candidate.
I was mouring over those who took the risk on the OTM calls on RIMM..not that I would have, but 15 bucks in each direction would have enticed me..no doubt about it (straddle)
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