July Stock Talk 2007

D2,

Me too..I need more disposable income to throw out some wilder plays so I could hit a home run..

Grinder, I dont get this TASR move..it is OUT OF CONTROL..they are sniffing back to all time highs, it shocks me. I wont go near the stock, especially nearing the 1B market cap range.

Yeah we need to look at HIGH beta stocks and make some moves..I am leaning towards stocks over 25 bucks at minimum and the higher the better...

D2 again you are right, but these parabolic moves have to be digested...some of these green stocks are up 100% this month, I am embarrased that I sat there yapping every day about FSLR and others and did absolutely nothing..took ZERO chances..

Solar has taken off somewhat but other areas have not come around.  I don't think it'll quite reach the same levels, but I think this could be the beginning stages in certain sectors, somewhat niche sectors, a sort of mini late 90's internet runup.  We may have appeared in '98 to have already had a nice almost parabolic setup but in retrospect it was barely getting going.  Just as the emergence of the internet was the inevitable, bubble notwitshtanding, people early on (and it is still way early) made very good money and continue to with the best of breed companies.

Solar may be a bit extended, though in retrospect I suspect it is not, other areas have not been.  If solar power becomes huge and widespread and if FSLR is the INTC or CSCO of solar power, then their current 8B market will in retrospect be tiny.  No reason in 5 years on their trajectory and if solar ramps up as expected and they execute and become the best of breed, they could have a 40 or 50 bil cap....or more.  Likewise, a company like CREE.  The way we light and power are going to be changing 360 over the next 5-10 years.  CREE is what 3 billion.  The INTC or CSCO of LED lighting is going to be worth more than 3 bil.  15?  20 billion?  Not out of the question at all.  And then there will be smaller companies in these and other spaces who will have even more dramatic gains.  Now FSLR and CREE may fall 25 or 30% in the next month.  Market is funny like that.  But it'd probably then just be a good buying opp.

D2,

The problem I have with FSLR is the technology they use is NOT top notch and will be behind the curve in the very near future..the future is in higher quantity and better prices and FSLR is commiting to make large production factories which make existing cells.

In the near term FSLR is the sexy name but unless someone outside the EU starts requiring more alt energy production, the source for new contracts just isnt coming. Now the EU gives large subsidies and tax breaks for using "green" energy sources. I dont see the US requiring anything in the near future, China wont go with it until pricing comes way down and by that time there will either be larger more efficient producers and also the production will be higher output and that will price FSLR and their older technology out.

As a momentum stock you have to ride the largest mover, but longer term I do not see FSLR as the most efficient producer, nor the longer term winner.

LED is another animal in itself..it isnt even close to residential application and costs are WAY too high to become commercial, and to make it more wide spread in use will take a very long time..I dont see LED being cost effective for years if ever..

I guess I am not a believer in LED technology and I would say I have put a decent time into researching it...

Grinder,

That is a great list..

Lets chomp on that list and screen which are near highs and option pricing. It looks like every one reports after July expiry so we wouldnt want to establish any leg until after expiry, pricing will come down after July expiration.

probably the most important piece of news out there today...now combine it with HD's warning. this will be very very big when we look back in 10 years

S&P puts $12 bln of subprime securities on watch negative
S&P cites poor subprime performance, sees further losses

also...Bernake speaks at 1

be careful if you're long...he may...MAY hint at a rate hike

+10.40 (5.36%)

Big$$$,

Yeah thats why I made those comments yesterday about holding your nose and keeping a stop.

I think I am going in on some FSLR calls today..depending on the premium I will let everyone know.

D2,

You see NWBO?

Also BCON getting clobbered today. And LOCM keeps getting nailed..some air coming out of the sails on these little runners.

krallman, whats the hook on LPTN?

Here is a stock that mystifies me..this should be a 60 buck stock if you ask me.

SHLD

I never got the real estate/ Eddie Lampert valuation on two very sub-par companies joined together..

I don't know anything about NWBO.

I know LOCM has broken down a bit.  I have no clue what the bottom will be, but I really believe it will move back higher.   And it will be acquired for north of $20.

D2,

Sorry, I thought you had brought up the NWBO stock..it was Grinder.

I think LOCM will fall back into the low volume range unless somthing big comes around..the momo traders will exit and the shorts will see what they can do on the downside.

AAPL moving nicely on the potential nano-Iphone being released in the next 4 months..could be huge for the winter.

I wouldnt be shorting AAPL at any time, stock should be bought on weakness..

Big$$$,

I dont think D2 is selling, he has almost a 200% gain on the stock..he is looking longer term with a basis in the 3's.

Yep, I bought it $3.99 before this crazy stuff with the idea of long-term (more than 1 year) hold.  I am sticking to it, however I don't think I'll have it that long because they are going to be bought it.  And it will be for my than the recent highs.

Big$$$,

POZN falling apart again today..I had a sell order in yesterday and didnt do GTC, big mistake on my part..

Market buckling pretty bad today.  Sears and Home Depot downers.  Consumer just fair, but I still think tech earnings will be strong overall.

Days like today are ones where you pick up the winners on sale and steer clear of the losers.

AAPL will probably keep running and if the market comes in strong, it will too..accumulate, also the solars are ones to accumulate on dips like we are seeing.

WS...what does that mean?  When do you not steer clear of the losers?

you guys are missing the biggest story of the day

S&P will be downgrading about $12b in subprime debt in the next few days...if it goes to junk status, then you will have a fire sale of CDOs and CMO's

and it runs deeper than that...funds who are leveraged out the ass on subprimes will suddenly need to come up with cash...so they can sell stock to meet liquidity requirements or get some sort of investment from somewhere else.

what is more likely?