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July Stock Talk 2007

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Legend
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Posted: #126
KOAJ, translation for the rookies?
 
Legend
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Posted: #127
Market in the shitter
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

you guys are missing the biggest story of the day

S&P will be downgrading about $12b in subprime debt in the next few days...if it goes to junk status, then you will have a fire sale of CDOs and CMO's

and it runs deeper than that...funds who are leveraged out the ass on subprimes will suddenly need to come up with cash...so they can sell stock to meet liquidity requirements or get some sort of investment from somewhere else.
 Can u explain how this will affect the market in the next few days?
what is more likely?


 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #129
D2,

Meaning some people look and see stocks on their 52 week lows or that are stinky stocks getting worse and consider buying them on continued weakness.

My point is in a bull market you buy the good stocks on sale, not speculate on bad stocks..if that makes sense.

Koaj is saying the spillover on subprime is going to effect more than just the handful of subprime lenders...larger firms are going to get hit and when the S&P lowers debt to junk status then it increases borrowing rates to those firms who hold the debt.

I have seen this over the past few weeks, companies like Bear Sterns or even GE will start showing write downs on these assets and it will effect the economy and companies more than what the street is acknowledging to this point.

Plus it means the consumer is going in deeper and deeper and foreclosures increasing..more strain on the economy, plus loss of jobs etc.

I just had lunch with a friend of mine who works for a larger builder in the area and companies are laying off like crazy in the housing sector..not good times for those without jobs.
 
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Posted: #130
LCOM grinding down on some large volume....

pretty nasty stuff.

I stuck a pole in the water on some 115 calls on FSLR at 4.20, doesnt look like a fill is coming.

If we get open weakness tomorrow I will get some of the strike.
 
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Posted: #131
TheBest

i think it may not effect companies in the short term, long term it could be devastating ton any industry that has made money off real estate in the last few years...construction, retail (malls), money lenders, etc

in the short term, combining this with HD/SHLD warnings, the mkt is on very shaky ground right now and it feels like we are expecting the worst. Bernake speaks to the House on the 18th re: inflation

D2,

the mkt operates on two principles...fear and greed...and that's it. if you think the stock will go up (greed) buy. if you're afraid of losing your shirt, sell (fear). dont forget, these arent machines trading and placing orders, the mkt is run by traders who have emotions who are afraid of many things and who are also greedy

i've seen a ton in the last 10 years as WSC has as well following the mkt day in and day out...last time i saw this much leverage and overextension was in the high flying nasdaq days of late 99-early 2000...just saying be careful if you are trying to pick bottoms here
 
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Posted: #132
to follow...

[MCO] Moody's downgrades 399 residential MBS

[MCO] Higher delinquency rates drove downgrades, Moody's says
 
Prospect
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Posted: #133
Been looking over the ones from that little list.  The ones I like best are:
 
AEIS   aug 20 @ 3.20   Earnings 7/26
ATHR  aug 30 @ 3.10   Earnings 7/24
WFR   aug 60 @ 5.10   Earnings 7/26
 
NETL might be interesting 30% short and low float.  Aug 30 @ 3.80
 
 
 
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Posted: #134
Too early...

Lets wait until options expiry, now you are paying too much in time premium for August options.

Plus let me see if I can come up with more candidates...
 
All-Star
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Posted: #135
Crazy stuff with FSLR.
 
Yep, no way can you fade momentum like this.
 
Am opening up with a GTC at 111, personally.  I am not smart enough to call a number, but FSLR will be higher than 111 by end of 2008, am looking for a 30-40% gain over next 18 months.
 
Wall Street-
 
I agree with you.  The big money players want this one higher and higher.  Analysts can naysay it all they want.  Barrons's can bash it this week-end.  It won't matter, cause this one will move higher.  The negativity is all noise to be bought, cause this one is a short seller's nightmare the next 1.5 years or so.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #136
Just got filled at 111.
 
It's on.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #137
yep..

Lets ROLL...120 or higher.


 
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Posted: #138
no buy the nyx calls much more value
 
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Posted: #139
Big$$$, Money on the table already..

10 contracts, average basis about 5.40 for me.


 
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Posted: #140
Open interest building in the 120s.......well in, WSC!!!
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #141
claycourt,

It had some momo working there, then the bid got demolished and they dropped her 1.50 in a matter of minutes.

I like the reversal but a move to positive is key.

A second reversal and a close near the lows or in the lower portion of the candlestick would not be a good thing.
 
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Posted: #142
I agree with you totally for the ST, WSC.  But, I think we get an upside reversal today (could be dead wrong, but think it goes higher).
 
ST vs LT.
 
Scary.
 
Exactly why I don't have the balls to play the short term thing.....I'll only buy a stock if I'm willing to hold it for over a year.
 
You got cajones to play that game, man.
 
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Posted: #143
cksw volume spike 1000 percent above avg yest 500 above avg today
pozn way up
yge blowing up!
holy shit !
 
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Posted: #144
Nice job Big$$$,

I wonder whats up with the YGE...somthing doesnt sit right with me not knowing the company since it isnt domestic.

POZN moved nicely, I wish the volume were better..
 
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Posted: #145
And, WSC, over the course of the next year until election '08, people will want to do the green thing.  No doubt about it.  Mania like that will drive the momentum.
 
Yeah, this FSLR is a very, very scary chart, but what comforts me is all the negativity on it.  Makes no sense, but that is what drove Iomega back in the mid 90s to absolutely smash short sellers.  Yeah, eventually Iomega took the plunge, but not after it wrecked the accounts of many short sellers.
 
It's all hard to enviosion when you see it clearly, but history repeats itself over and over and over again.  And fear and greed run this entire stock market casino.
 
And FSLR has a decent shot to get run right up in vicious short squeezes.
 
Oh yeah, FSLR will one day get hacked to pieces, but not before it shatters the psyche of many a short seller.
 
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Posted: #146
claycourt,

We are the same age, of course I remember IOM..or IOMG or whatever it was back then..one of the largest momentum moves pre-internet that I have ever seen..meaning how fast it went. Did you get a piece of that move? I didnt..what a total sham IOM ended up being, now they are a dinosaur and really should not be in business, but at the time they were cutting edge and HOT..

Same goes for stocks like TASR and KKD.

I agree with you about the negativity..it is all over the stock (FSLR) but it keeps moving higher. I think fundies want it higher and are smashing retail shorts...
 
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Posted: #147
WSC,
 
Yeah, 41.  Born in '66.
 
Nope, I missed the train ride on IOMG.  Didn't really understand what was going on back then.....got too caught up in the numbers and was always able to talk myself out of things.
 
Not going to happen today......realize totally that human nature trumps sanity.
 
Yeah, FSLR is a complete piece of sh-t on its fundamentals.  863 PE at 8 billion market cap....what a bunch of crap!!!!!! 
 
But all that gets lost in the shuffle when fear and greed collide in the stock market casino.
 
Everyone and his dog will get on the media and belittle FSLR the next few weeks and months.  "Anyone buying FSLR is a complete fool."
 
Exactly what was said about Iomega.
 
Iomega went from like 3 to 60 between 5/95 and 5/96.....and she shorts got nailed to the wall during that time.  Without short sellers, Iomega wouldn't have done anything at all.
 
The more the retails short FSLR, the more the fundies will bury them.......that's the main ingredient right now.
 
I have thought about this one for a long time, and Monday's move up convinced me that this would kill short sellers over the next few months to a year......right up until election.
 
Barron's and talking heads can get as negative as they want.....I agree with them on numbers......but there is no amount of talk that can stop a short squeeze.
 
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Posted: #148
DNDN is being probed by the SEC
 
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by TheBest:

cksw volume spike 1000 percent above avg yest 500 above avg today
pozn way up
yge blowing up!
holy shit !
 
CKSW is looking great.  i bought it on the dip yesterday morning at 4.60.  sitting at 5.34 right now.  earnings coming on July 25th, how do you feel about that day TheBest?
 
 
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Posted: #150
i feel like 10k shares is not enough of cksw u need more for that earnings day because the stock will be at 10 dollar s a share after earnings u mark my words
 
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