Force Protection (FRPT - nasdaq cm), the defense company that makes the Buffalo and Cougar Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles , has been badly beat up the last two months because they got a one third cut in their Marine Corps contract and U.S. Marine Corps Commandant questioned the long-term value of MRAPs.
to the best of my knowledge, these vehicles are STILL the best machines for the money to counter IEDs and Force Protection still has oodles of orders. I think there is a good probablility that this stock will recover. maybe not to the late may high of $31+ BUT you could get at least a double IF you buy it right. the stock currently has 25.58% of it's 68.25 million shares outstanding SHORT so IF it starts back up it could SCREAM. I bought 1k @ $6.66 friday and am prepaired to add IF it dips back toward the 18 month low of 4.52 that was set early thursday.
opinions?
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Force Protection (FRPT - nasdaq cm), the defense company that makes the Buffalo and Cougar Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles , has been badly beat up the last two months because they got a one third cut in their Marine Corps contract and U.S. Marine Corps Commandant questioned the long-term value of MRAPs.
to the best of my knowledge, these vehicles are STILL the best machines for the money to counter IEDs and Force Protection still has oodles of orders. I think there is a good probablility that this stock will recover. maybe not to the late may high of $31+ BUT you could get at least a double IF you buy it right. the stock currently has 25.58% of it's 68.25 million shares outstanding SHORT so IF it starts back up it could SCREAM. I bought 1k @ $6.66 friday and am prepaired to add IF it dips back toward the 18 month low of 4.52 that was set early thursday.
"Moreover, he suggested that prospects look bright for its new lightweight Cheetah -- a possible Humvee replacement -- as well. He also portrayed the company's financial position as strong and its capital-intensive expansion plans as sound."
I have always thought that the company also could be a buyout candidate by one of the major defense contractors. good profit margins and book value to price currently under 2.
"Moreover, he suggested that prospects look bright for its new lightweight Cheetah -- a possible Humvee replacement -- as well. He also portrayed the company's financial position as strong and its capital-intensive expansion plans as sound."
I have always thought that the company also could be a buyout candidate by one of the major defense contractors. good profit margins and book value to price currently under 2.
closed @ 5.99 as the market continued to tank. pretty good recovery off the intraday low. some fundamental "anal"yst changed for "outperform" to "underperform" @ 2:00 est which may be the reason for the spike down about then. been in the market since the late 70's and THOSE fuckers ALWAYS buy at the top and sell at the bottom.
we used to call them "the turkeys" because when they get scared they run from one end of the yard to the other end of the yard and back and forth in a flock of feathers just like turkeys.
will see what happens tomarrow.
closed @ 5.99 as the market continued to tank. pretty good recovery off the intraday low. some fundamental "anal"yst changed for "outperform" to "underperform" @ 2:00 est which may be the reason for the spike down about then. been in the market since the late 70's and THOSE fuckers ALWAYS buy at the top and sell at the bottom.
we used to call them "the turkeys" because when they get scared they run from one end of the yard to the other end of the yard and back and forth in a flock of feathers just like turkeys.
Even worse is DRYS. I have let 20% run away once, a 15% once and I still hold.
IMB is the same, so is a stock I own UVE..had a double in it and let it slide back down..
I have been letting FAST profits turn against me....been trying to break my day trading cycle and it has cost me quite a bit to be honest...all the stocks I own which are underwater were NOT at some point in the past..
Tough to try and break a short term stance, but I am trying and failing..
lol
The more I read about FRPT the more I think these MMs are so shell shocked on bad calls that they are making some HEAVY conservative calls..those FBR idiots (look at their stock haha) have a price target of BOOK value on the stock..the company has little debt and a buck plus in cash.
I agree thought, this week there are big announcements from the military and the stock will either be at 10 or 4..one or the other.
Damn risky...
Claycourt,
Even worse is DRYS. I have let 20% run away once, a 15% once and I still hold.
IMB is the same, so is a stock I own UVE..had a double in it and let it slide back down..
I have been letting FAST profits turn against me....been trying to break my day trading cycle and it has cost me quite a bit to be honest...all the stocks I own which are underwater were NOT at some point in the past..
Tough to try and break a short term stance, but I am trying and failing..
lol
The more I read about FRPT the more I think these MMs are so shell shocked on bad calls that they are making some HEAVY conservative calls..those FBR idiots (look at their stock haha) have a price target of BOOK value on the stock..the company has little debt and a buck plus in cash.
I agree thought, this week there are big announcements from the military and the stock will either be at 10 or 4..one or the other.
It's going to be crazy for basically all of 2008. "Crazy" meaning that ticker symbols will move up on intense short covering spikes that will make many feel that "capitulation" has occurred, and all is well. NOT!!!!!!!!
I do believe that the way to "trade" a bear market (like the one we're in) is to fade the intense short covering spikes, set VERY CONSERVATIVE profit goals, and then get the hell out of there once the profit goal is hit and before another squeeze comes in. Easier said than done.
And the way to "invest" in a bear market is to VERY CONSERVATIVELY scale in to long positions off of panic sell-offs that you are willing to hold for about 2-3 years.
All this is so much easier said than done, though.
And oh yeah, last but not least, keep as much cash available as possible and stay the hell away from margin work.
I am going to close out all 500 shares of SPY shorts (147 basis) tomorrow if there is a gap down open, and ask questions later. Not going to let these small profits get squeezed away. Will pay the 28% to Uncle Sam, and be happy about it cause the market rewards those who aren't greedy and are humble. The market will severely punish me if I get greedy and start running my mouth. The market is a stern, harsh teacher of brutally painful lessons......and I've been taught enough "lessons" in years gone by to write a goddamn encyclopaedia about it.
LONG HAUL STOCKS:
MSFT (34ish)
GTLS (26ish)
CRDC (9 ish)
OPEN "TRADES":
Short SPY x 500 (147ish)
Have a good night. BOL on FRPT and the MNF game, if you decide to play it.
Cheers
WSC-
It's going to be crazy for basically all of 2008. "Crazy" meaning that ticker symbols will move up on intense short covering spikes that will make many feel that "capitulation" has occurred, and all is well. NOT!!!!!!!!
I do believe that the way to "trade" a bear market (like the one we're in) is to fade the intense short covering spikes, set VERY CONSERVATIVE profit goals, and then get the hell out of there once the profit goal is hit and before another squeeze comes in. Easier said than done.
And the way to "invest" in a bear market is to VERY CONSERVATIVELY scale in to long positions off of panic sell-offs that you are willing to hold for about 2-3 years.
All this is so much easier said than done, though.
And oh yeah, last but not least, keep as much cash available as possible and stay the hell away from margin work.
I am going to close out all 500 shares of SPY shorts (147 basis) tomorrow if there is a gap down open, and ask questions later. Not going to let these small profits get squeezed away. Will pay the 28% to Uncle Sam, and be happy about it cause the market rewards those who aren't greedy and are humble. The market will severely punish me if I get greedy and start running my mouth. The market is a stern, harsh teacher of brutally painful lessons......and I've been taught enough "lessons" in years gone by to write a goddamn encyclopaedia about it.
LONG HAUL STOCKS:
MSFT (34ish)
GTLS (26ish)
CRDC (9 ish)
OPEN "TRADES":
Short SPY x 500 (147ish)
Have a good night. BOL on FRPT and the MNF game, if you decide to play it.
I am also gonna look at this one. What the hell. The whole market is blowing at the moment.I took the day off this morning, as I knew it was gonna blow all day and did not wanna see it. I feel kind of better that I did not sit around looking at it!! Seems like I should have gone for the qid idea as well...
I am also gonna look at this one. What the hell. The whole market is blowing at the moment.I took the day off this morning, as I knew it was gonna blow all day and did not wanna see it. I feel kind of better that I did not sit around looking at it!! Seems like I should have gone for the qid idea as well...
When I read the market maker was projecting them at 3 (I did read this I think it was real quick glance) then I had serious questions about the stock...sounds very suspicious to me..
When I read the market maker was projecting them at 3 (I did read this I think it was real quick glance) then I had serious questions about the stock...sounds very suspicious to me..
Force Protection Inc. shares declined Tuesday as worries
persisted that the armored vehicle maker will receive
smaller-than-expected contracts from the U.S. military.
The stock
has been battered in recent weeks on concerns that the military has
bought too many mine resistant ambush protected vehicles, or MRAPs. The
U.S. Marine Corps said in November that it will reduce orders of the
vehicles. The military is scheduled to award more contracts this week.
Force Protection
(nasdaq:
FRPT -
news
-
people
)
shares have lost 75 percent of their value since Oct. 17 when an
independent study questioned whether the military should continue to
purchase MRAPs. Stocks fell 5 cents to close at $5.91 Tuesday. The
stock has traded between $4.52 and $31.16 in the last year.
On
Tuesday, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Chris Donaghey reduced his
2008 profit estimate for the Ladson, S.C., company, and lowered his
price target to $14 per share from $36.
Despite his lowered
expectations, however, Donaghey said the shares have fallen too far, as
the worldwide market for the company's vehicles will be strong even if
U.S. orders decrease.
Donaghey expects Force Protection to earn
$1.26 per share in 2008, down from an earlier estimate of $1.73 per
share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect an average of $1.34
per share.
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst Patrick McCarthy
downgraded the stock to "Underperform" from "Peer Perform" Monday,
slashing his price target to $3 per share from $25. Shares fell 13
percent on the day.
-
Force Protection Inc. shares declined Tuesday as worries
persisted that the armored vehicle maker will receive
smaller-than-expected contracts from the U.S. military.
The stock
has been battered in recent weeks on concerns that the military has
bought too many mine resistant ambush protected vehicles, or MRAPs. The
U.S. Marine Corps said in November that it will reduce orders of the
vehicles. The military is scheduled to award more contracts this week.
Force Protection
(nasdaq:
FRPT -
news
-
people
)
shares have lost 75 percent of their value since Oct. 17 when an
independent study questioned whether the military should continue to
purchase MRAPs. Stocks fell 5 cents to close at $5.91 Tuesday. The
stock has traded between $4.52 and $31.16 in the last year.
On
Tuesday, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Chris Donaghey reduced his
2008 profit estimate for the Ladson, S.C., company, and lowered his
price target to $14 per share from $36.
Despite his lowered
expectations, however, Donaghey said the shares have fallen too far, as
the worldwide market for the company's vehicles will be strong even if
U.S. orders decrease.
Donaghey expects Force Protection to earn
$1.26 per share in 2008, down from an earlier estimate of $1.73 per
share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect an average of $1.34
per share.
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst Patrick McCarthy
downgraded the stock to "Underperform" from "Peer Perform" Monday,
slashing his price target to $3 per share from $25. Shares fell 13
percent on the day.
I think it is more a case of listening to what the Marine Corps said than what the analyst said, the $3 figure stuck in my mind.If the marines don't want them, however, in the weird, and totally corrupt way armed forces are provisioned, it does not mean necessarily that they will not get the order. Pols routinely force unwanted, unneeded, and absurdly priced weapons on our armed forces.
I think it is more a case of listening to what the Marine Corps said than what the analyst said, the $3 figure stuck in my mind.If the marines don't want them, however, in the weird, and totally corrupt way armed forces are provisioned, it does not mean necessarily that they will not get the order. Pols routinely force unwanted, unneeded, and absurdly priced weapons on our armed forces.
wonder how much $$$ THIS goofball makes for throwing darts? 
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